воскресенье, 30 июня 2019 г.
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воскресенье, 23 июня 2019 г.
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NOTICE: The Bulliondesk.com website will soon close
After 19 years of providing live spot market prices for gold, silver, platinum and palladium to hundreds of thousands of clients across the world, Fastmarkets will retire the Bullion Desk brand and close the Bulliondesk.com website.
Prices will be available on Fastmarkets.com
Fastmarkets will continue to provide free precious metals spot prices and charts for gold, silver, platinum and palladium. These will be available to view on the Fastmarkets.com website at the following webpages:
Gold prices – https://www.fastmarkets.com/gold-prices
Silver prices – https://www.fastmarkets.com/silver-prices
Platinum prices – https://www.fastmarkets.com/platinum-prices
Palladium prices – https://www.fastmarkets.com/palladium-prices
LBMA prices – https://www.fastmarkets.com/lbma-prices
FX rates – https://www.fastmarkets.com/fx-prices
About the rebranding
Our Metal Bulletin, American Metal Market, Industrial Minerals, Scrap Price Bulletin and Bullion Desk brands have been rebranded as Fastmarkets. The new branding will help us showcase the full strength of our price reporting, research and news services under one identity. Our name has changed but one thing will remain the same – our commitment to transparency and providing unparalleled, expert data and insights.
Fastmarkets will continue to provide subscription access to precious metals spot market data, LBMA prices and other financial data through the Fastmarkets Mydesk live data platform and our Exchange Data Feeds services.
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вторник, 18 июня 2019 г.
MORNING VIEW: Gold price rises as Middle East tensions escalate
While generally weak global economic data continues to weigh on sentiment and is keeping base metals prices under pressure, the rise in tensions between the United States and Iran has lifted gold prices this morning, Tuesday June 18.
The market is also waiting for direction from the US Federal Reserve, which it should get on Wednesday when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting provides its economic projections, issues its statement and holds a press conference.
- US sends 1,000 more troops to the Middle East to boost its defenses
- Gold prices approach multi-year highs…
- …but oil prices remain subdued because demand is weak and supply is adequate
Base metals
Three-month base metals on the London Metal Exchange were mixed this morning, with aluminium, nickel and tin prices up between 0.2% and 0.4%, while copper, zinc and lead prices were down between 0.1% for copper ($5,846 per tonne) and 0.7% for zinc ($2,458 per tonne). Volume has been light with 3,671 lots traded as at 6.32am London time.
In China, base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were also mixed with July lead and August copper prices rising by 0.7% and 0.4% respectively, with copper at 46,360 yuan ($6,693) per tonne, after a close on Monday of 46,160 yuan per tonne. The rest are down between 0.1% for August aluminium and 0.9% for July nickel.
Spot copper prices in Changjiang were up 0.5% at 46,260-46,330 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio dipped lower to 7.93, after 7.94 at a similar time on Monday.
Precious metals
The spot precious metals prices are up between 0.3% for platinum and 0.5% for gold and palladium. Gold and palladium have been leading the charge higher, silver has followed gold’s lead but is not setting the pace, while platinum prices, although up today, are holding just above recent lows and so remain relatively weak. At $1,345.64 per oz, the spot gold price is climbing back toward a high of $1,358.40 per oz reached on June 14.
Gold is firm because rising tensions in the Middle East are attracting investors’ interest in haven assets, while palladium seems to be rebounding on continuing strong fundamentals after its late-March to May technical correction.
On the SHFE, the December gold and silver contracts were down by 0.3% and 0.5% respectively.
Wider markets
Despite the increased tension over Iran, the spot Brent crude oil price remains surprisingly weak at $60.61 per barrel, which was down by 0.32% compared with Monday’s close at $60.80 per barrel. Reasons for the relative weakness are to do with concerns about slowing demand, the continuing US-China trade war and an abundance of supply of oil from US shale producers. Any escalation in attacks on tankers in the Straits of Hormuz, could, however, push the price higher again.
Middle East tensions are boosting demand for US treasuries, with the yield on benchmark US 10-year treasuries down at 2.0713 %, compared with 2.1000% at a similar time on Monday. Meanwhile, the German 10-year bund yield still trades in negative territory and was recently quoted at -0.2549%, compared with -0.2500% at a similar time on Monday.
In Asia, equities were for the most part firmer on Tuesday: Hang Seng (+1.16%), CSI300 (+0.25%), Kospi (+0.38%), the ASX 200 (+0.6%), while the Nikkei was down by 0.72%.
This follows slightly firmer closes for major US indices on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 0.09% and the Nasdaq up by 0.62%.
Currencies
The recovery in the dollar index is consolidating this morning, it was recently quoted at 97.40, compared with 97.56 at a similar time on Monday.
The other major currencies we follow are mixed: the euro (1.1239), the Australian dollar (0.6838), the yen (108.24, while sterling is close to this year’s low and was recently quoted at 1.2532.
The yuan has weakened to 6.9267.
Key data
Today’s key data includes German and EU ZEW economic sentiment, EU consumer price index, EU trade balance and US housing starts and building permits. In addition, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi and Bank of England governor Mark Carney are speaking.
Today’s key themes and views
Most of the base metals are stuck in sideways-to-lower trends, the exception is lead that is edging higher. Business sentiment looks set to remain depressed until there is some progress on US-China trade negotiations and with economic data showing weakness, consumers are unlikely to be in any hurry to restock.
Gold prices are attracting investor interest and the combination of tensions in the Middle East and potential for equity markets to correct may well provide further support. That said, gold prices are approaching levels where in recent years selling has dominated. The peaks since 2014, have ranged between $1,366.15 and $1,388.70 per oz.
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IN CASE YOU MISSED IT: 5 key stories from June 17
Here are five Fastmarkets MB stories you might have missed on Monday June 17 that are worth another look.
Base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange posted marginal gains by the afternoon kerb on Monday June 17, buoyed by dovish whispers from the United States Federal Reserve and a weakened US dollar index. The exceptions were nickel and tin, which both logged losses.
A number of US aluminium consumers are lobbying for the introduction of the Aluminum Pricing Examination (APEX) Act, designed to enhance regulatory oversight over benchmarking entities for the Midwest premium.
Newmont Goldcorp’s Peñasquito mine, the largest gold-silver mine in Mexico, has resumed production after a community blockade hindered its production since late April.
China is importing steel slab from Iran and Brazil to get around production limits placed on blast furnace operations in the country, industry sources told Fastmarkets MB over the past week.
The European ammonium paratungstate (APT) price has declined under pressure from weak demand and aggressive offers for material shipped from China, with ferro-tungsten prices also losing ground. Chinese tungsten concentrate pricing has also dipped due to weak demand.
The post IN CASE YOU MISSED IT: 5 key stories from June 17 appeared first on The Bullion Desk.
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PLATINUM TODAY: South African platinum producers braced for higher wage demands
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Analysis
Macro drivers Chinese car sales in May had their worst year-on-year decline of 16.4%. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), one key reason for the drop was the implementation in several provinces of “China 6” vehicle emission standards earlier than the central government deadline of 2020. Poor Chinese economic data continues to paint a bleak picture of consumer confidence, undermining demand for big-ticket items such as automobiles. In Europe, passenger car registrations fell by 2.6% in the first four months of 2019, according to the European Automobiles Manufacturers Association (ACEA). And LMC Automotive estimates US auto sales fell by 2.1% in May due to higher vehicle prices as well as borrowing costs. The consultancy maintained its forecast for total light-vehicles sales of 16.9 million units in 2019, a 2.5% fall from 2018. Given such a challenging demand backdrop for platinum, Nymex speculators were understandably bearish on platinum speculative funds positioning. Its net long fund position has declined for the sixth consecutive week, falling to 6,952 contracts in the week to June 11. Stale longs liquidated 781 contracts, which was partially offset by the covering of 684 short contracts. With no sign of dip-buying pressure yet, a further decline in the coming weeks in platinum’s NFLP cannot be ruled out. While platinum struggling on the upside due to a continued slowdown in global automotive sales, a potential disruption among South Africa’s leading platinum producers is looming. The Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (Amcu) is aware that higher palladium and rhodium prices along with the weaker rand has boosted miners’ profits. The union is using this as a basis to demand higher wages. The relationship among South African trade unions and the producers’ strategic decision to cut costs have raised the potential of industrial action. Rising electricity costs and power shortages were among the issues that platinum miners have faced this year. We will monitor Amcu’s demands and how much platinum producers are willing to offer to avert a major strike. Conclusion
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All trades or trading strategies mentioned in the report are hypothetical, for illustration only and do not constitute trading recommendations. |
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MORNING VIEW: LME base metals prices firmer but global risk sentiment remains fragile
The global macroeconomic backdrop remains riddled with high amounts of uncertainty this morning, Monday June 17, as the trade conflict between China and the United States drags on with seemingly little progress being made toward an amicable resolution while tensions between the US and Iran look set to ratchet up in the coming days.
Meanwhile in Asia, protests in Hong Kong over a controversial extradition bill have started to subside but calls for the territory’s leader, Carrie Lam, to resign are growing.
Despite this, three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were firmer at the start of a new trading week. But gains have been fairly limited, indicating that market participants remain cautious ahead of this week’s US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
- According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, market participants assign a 21.7% probability of a cut at this week’s meeting, while expectations of a cut at the July meeting were above 80%.
- Further clarifications on what the US central bank wants to do next will determine global investors’ risk appetite.
- But there is a strong expectation for the Fed to start easing its monetary policy to weather the current negative macroeconomic climate.
Base metals
The LME three-month base metals were firmer this morning, with prices up by an average of 0.2% as at 6.21am London time. Nickel (+0.4%) was the outperformer, followed by copper (+0.3%) and aluminium (+0.3%), while zinc and tin were both up by 0.2% and lead managed to eke out a 0.1% gain.
In China, base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were under selling pressure at the time of writing, down by an average of 0.5%. The most-traded August zinc contract was down by 0.9%, while the August aluminium and copper contracts followed fairly closely with declines of 0.8% and 0.9% respectively. The latter was recently at 46,120 yuan ($6,657) per tonne. The most-traded September tin contract was down by 0.2%, while the July contracts for nickel and lead were both down by 0.1%.
Spot copper prices in Changjiang were down 0.7% at 46,070-46,200 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio dipped lower to 7.94.
Precious metals
Spot gold and silver prices failed to hold on to recent gains on Friday and both metals are under selling pressure this morning. The spot gold price was recently down by 0.19% at $1,339 per oz, while spot silver price was down by 0.03% and was recently trading at $14.85 per oz.
The platinum price is threatening to break below the psychological level of $800 per oz as selling pressure grows. Meanwhile, sister-metal palladium is consolidating from recent gains, down by 0.2%. It was last trading at $1,465 per oz and judging by the rebound momentum, more gains in the coming days cannot be ruled out just yet.
On the SHFE, the June gold contract was up by 0.1% at 301.95 yuan per gram, while the December silver contract was down by 0.3%.
Wider markets
The spot Brent crude oil price remains well supported by the recent attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and was last trading at $62.16 per barrel.
Risk-on sentiment has allowed global bond yields to recover too, with the yield on benchmark US 10-year treasuries up at 2.1000%. Meanwhile, the German 10-year bund yield still trades in negative territory and was recently quoted at -0.2500%.
In Asia, equities were mixed on Monday: Hang Seng (+0.60%), CSI300 (+0.08%), Nikkei (+0.03%), Topix (-0.45%) and the ASX 200 (-0.35%).
This follows negative closes for major US indices on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 0.07%, the S&P500 off by 0.16% and the Nasdaq down by 0.52%.
Currencies
The recovery in the dollar index continues to gain traction while the expectations of a Fed rate cut at this week’s FOMC meeting remains low. The US currency was recently at 97.56, up from June 12’s low of 96.58.
With the dollar firmer the other major currencies we follow were weaker: the Japanese yen (108.60), the euro (1.1205) and sterling (1.2579). The Australian dollar is up marginally however at 0.6875.
The yuan has weakened to 6.9250, down by 0.02% at the time of writing.
Key data
It is a light day for data on Monday with the UK’s Rightmove house price index rising by 0.3% month on month in May. Later there is the Empire State Manufacturing Index from the US and a speech from European Central Bank president Mario Draghi of note.
Today’s key themes and views
Despite the positive start to the week by the LME base metals, global risk sentiment remains fairly fragile, highly sensitive to any sudden developments in the simmering US-China trade war or escalated tensions in the Middle East.
While the resilient dollar index is likely to cap rebound gains in the base metals in the short term, market participants are seemingly hopeful that the US central bank could deliver an interest rate cut as early as July to alleviate some of the negative pressure on global economic growth.
Global investors were rather happy to switch from holding risk assets to haven assets on a whim and this may well be the nature of how things pan out as market volatility continues to force market participants to adapt quickly.
The post MORNING VIEW: LME base metals prices firmer but global risk sentiment remains fragile appeared first on The Bullion Desk.
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MORNING VIEW: Haven demand supports gold, caps base metals
Three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were mixed so far on Friday June 14, reflecting deteriorating sentiment in broader risk markets amid the recent uptick in tensions in the Middle East and while global trade tensions overhang.
Military officials from the United States have released a video of what they say shows Iran’s Revolutionary Guard removing an unexploded limpet mine from the side of one of two oil tankers attacked in the Gulf of Oman this week. The attacks have ratcheted up tensions between the US and Iran, in turn dampening investors’ risk appetite.
As a result, only nickel (+1.4%) and zinc were trading positively on the LME this morning, while the rest of the complex were down by an average of 0.2%.
Trading volumes have been relatively light, with 5,121 lots traded as at 6.37am London time.
In China, base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were similarly mixed; the most-traded contracts for nickel (+0.8%), lead (+0.4%) and copper (+0.2%) were in positive territory, while those for aluminium (-0.3%), tin (-0.5%) and zinc (-0.7%) weakened.
In other metals in China, iron ore prices were up by 1.8% at 448 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange.
Precious metals
In the precious metals sphere, spot gold and silver prices remain supported, with the former testing resistance at the year-to-date high around $1,348 per oz. Platinum and palladium were both in positive ground, up by around 0.1%, after the latter closed Thursday with a solid 2.5% gain.
Wider markets
Oil prices remain well bid, with the spot Brent crude oil price most recently up by 0.8% at $61.78 per barrel, bolstered by concerns of supply disruptions following the attacks on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman.
Equities in Asia today were mixed this morning, with the Nikkei 225 up by 0.3% while the Hang Seng Index and CSI 300 were down by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively.
Currencies
In currencies, the US dollar remains steady against its major counterparts ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting next week.
Key data
Economic data overnight confirmed the decline in Japan’s industrial production during April, which contracted by 1.1% year on year. Markets are still awaiting important data from China, which has been delayed. Focus for the rest of today include consumer price index (CPI) data from France and the latest meetings of the Eurozone’s economic and finance ministers.
Retail sales figures from the US will also be important to gauge consumer sentiment and are forecast to show a 0.7% increase in May, after contracting by 0.2% in April.
Other US releases due on Friday include the industrial production estimate for May, forecast to rise by 0.2%, and business inventories that are expected to rise by 0.4% in April. The preliminary consumer sentiment and inflation estimates from the University of Michigan are also scheduled.
Today’s key theme and views
In general the base metals appear comfortable consolidating as trade uncertainties continue to overhang. But we maintain our overall view that a trade deal between China and the US could see the complex rally from its current oversold conditions.
In the precious metals, gold has clearly benefited from the increase in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While resistance has emerged, we believe the current macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop, coupled with the rate-cut expectations and low speculative positioning, are laying the foundation for further gains in the short-to-medium term.
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MORNING VIEW: LME base metals prices turn lower after recent short-covering gains
Risk sentiment was borderline negative on the morning of Wednesday June 12 after the possibility of US President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping meeting later this month at the Group of Twenty (G20) Summit in Japan was dubbed extremely unlikely.
Trump threatened more tariffs on Chinese imports if there is not enough progress on trade negotiations with China or if the meeting with President Xi does not happen during the summit. As such, the risk of a prolonged and escalated trade dispute remains a very real threat and this was enough to deter global investors from becoming too bullish.
As a result, appetite for risk assets has ebbed and the short-covering rallies in the London Metal Exchange base metals prices on Tuesday June 11 seem to have run their course.
Indeed, the LME’s three-month base metals prices were generally on a backfoot this morning and remain highly vulnerable to further selling if negative trade rhetoric continues.
- Although Trump has said he expects a meeting with Xi to take place, government officials from both sides have admitted that little preparatory work for the meeting has taken place while US-China tensions remain high.
- Global investors have already discounted the positive vibe from the US-Mexico trade deal. With no sign of further US-China trade negotiations seemingly likely, risk-averse investors have turned to haven assets again.
- The spot gold price is up by 0.7% and was trading at $1,336 per oz recently while the global bond yields that we follow were generally under downward pressure, an indication that global economic jitters are set to persist.
Base metals
The LME three-month base metals prices were trending lower on Wednesday morning, down by an average of 0.3% as at 6.33am London time. Following two solid green daily candles, lead was under renewed selling pressure this morning, with a decline of 0.9%. The rest were broadly weaker: zinc (-0.4%), aluminium (-0.3%) and copper (-0.2%), while nickel was unchanged and tin was the lone metal in positive territory with its three-month price up by 0.1%.
Meanwhile in China, base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were more resilient after the complex managed to eke out marginal gains on Wednesday, with prices up by an average of 0.1%. Nickel was the outperformer with the metal’s most-traded July contract up by 1.4% at 97,820 yuan ($14,144) per tonne. Tin followed with a 0.2% increase in its September contract, while July aluminium was up by 0.1% and July zinc was unchanged. Lagging behind were the July copper and lead contracts, down by 0.3% and 1% respectively.
Spot copper prices in Changjiang were down 0.3% at 46,540-46,730 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio edged up to 8.01, compared with 7.97 at a similar time on Monday.
Precious metals
Spot gold and silver prices both ran higher this morning while demand for haven assets increased. The spot gold price was recently up by 0.7% at $1,336 per oz, while spot silver secured a solid gain of 0.8% and was last trading at $14.85 per oz.
Platinum rose strongly on Tuesday and follow-through buying has emerged this morning, pushing the metal’s price up by 0.5%. But sister-metal palladium was down by 0.3% at $1,396.40 per oz after selling emerged near the psychological price level of $1,400 per oz.
On the SHFE, the June gold contract was up by 0.5% at 301.95 yuan per gram, while the December silver contract was up by 0.6% at 3,631 yuan per kg.
Wider markets
As risk-on sentiment wears off from the US-Mexico trade deal, the spot Brent crude oil price was under selling pressure this morning, down by 1.3% to trade as low as $61.08 per barrel, a contrast to this week’s high of $63.90 per barrel.
Similarly, global bond yields edged lower, with the yield on benchmark US 10-year treasuries down by 0.8% to 2.1249%. Meanwhile, the German 10-year bund yield continues to trade in negative territory and was recently quoted at -0.2357%.
In equities, Asian markets were weak across the board on Wednesday: Hang Seng (-1.93%), CSI300 (-0.74%), Topix (-0.45%), Nikkei (-0.35%) and the ASX 200 (-0.04%).
This follows negative closes for major US indices on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 0.05%, the S&P500 down by 0.04% and the Nasdaq down by 0.01%.
Currencies
The recovery in the dollar index at the start of the trading week was short-lived and the index was recently quoted at 96.64, down from Monday’s high of 96.90. As such, this has strengthened the Japanese yen to (108.30).
The other major currencies we follow were holding on to gains, with the euro (1.1336) and sterling (1.2732), both up by 0.06%, while the Australian dollar (0.6951) bucked the trend to decline by 0.14%.
The yuan has strengthened to 6.9155, compared with 6.9353 seen earlier this week.
Key data
In data already out on Wednesday, Japan core machinery orders beat market expectation of a negative 0.8% with a solid 5.2% and up against previous 3.8%. Japanese producer price index (PPI) data came in line with expectations at 0.7%, and similarly, China’s consumer price index (CPI) and PPI were also in line with market forecasts at 2.7% and 0.6% respectively.
US data of note due on Wednesday includes the CPI, crude oil inventories and the Federal budget balance.
Today’s key themes and views
We wrote in our previous Morning View report that although market participants had cheered a successful deal being struck between the US and Mexico, underlying risk sentiment remains fragile. This is proving to be true as market participants have once more turned cautious amid rising trade concerns. As such, we remain cautious toward the short-term respite that the base metals have been enjoying because US-China trade tensions seem a long way from being resolved.
With the short-covering seen on Tuesday over, the negative US-China trade rhetoric will continue to push base metals prices lower. Global investors were rather happy to switch from holding risk assets to haven assets on a whim and this may well be the nature of how things pan out as market volatility continues to force market participants to adapt quickly.
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понедельник, 17 июня 2019 г.
воскресенье, 16 июня 2019 г.
пятница, 14 июня 2019 г.
четверг, 13 июня 2019 г.
среда, 12 июня 2019 г.
вторник, 11 июня 2019 г.
понедельник, 10 июня 2019 г.
воскресенье, 9 июня 2019 г.
пятница, 7 июня 2019 г.
четверг, 6 июня 2019 г.
среда, 5 июня 2019 г.
вторник, 4 июня 2019 г.
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