пятница, 31 августа 2018 г.

METALS MORNING VIEW 31/08: Pick-up in China’s PMI data fails to excite base metals prices

The rebounds in the base metals have paused in recent days; we wait to see if the better-than-expected Chinese official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) acts as a boost as we approach September and the end of the summer slowdown.

The PMI edged up to 51.3 in August from 51.2 in July, but it also came in better than the 51.0 that was expected.

Three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were for the most part in positive territory on the morning of Friday August 31, led by a 2% gain in zinc ($2,513 per tonne), a 1.2% rally in lead ($2,099 per tonne) and a 0.7% rise in aluminium ($2,143 per tonne). The rest were little changed with nickel prices up 0.1%, while tin and copper were both down by 0.2%, with the former at $6,063 per tonne.

Volume has been high at 10,636 lots traded as at 06.47am London time.

This morning’s performances follow a general down day on Thursday, where only tin prices closed higher with a gain of 0.8%, while the rest were down by an average of 1%.

Precious metals prices were up across the across the board with gains averaging 0.8%, ranged between 0.4% for spot gold at $1,204.47 per oz and 1.2% for palladium at $977.40 per oz.

In China, base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were mixed with the October contracts for zinc and lead and the January contract for tin up by an average of 1.1%, while October contracts for copper and aluminium and the November contract for nickel were down by an average of 0.7%. The most actively traded October copper contract was recently quoted at 48,610 yuan ($7,126) per tonne.

Spot copper prices in Changjiang were down by 03% at 48,530-48,770 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio was at 8.02.

In other metals in China, the January iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was up by 1.1% at 486.50 yuan per tonne. On the SHFE, the January steel rebar contract was down by 1.2%, while the December gold contract was up by 0.1% and the December silver contract was down by 0.5%.

In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are moving higher again and were recently quoted at $77.94 per barrel, up by 0.29% this morning. Falling crude oil stocks and the potential for US sanctions against Iranian oil are in focus and existing financial sanctions against the country are already impacting Iran’s ability to trade. The yield on US 10-year treasuries was at 2.8556%, while the German 10-year bund yield was at 0.3453%.

Asian equity markets were mixed on Friday: Nikkei (unchanged), Kospi (+0.38%), the ASX200 (-0.51%), the Hang Seng (-0.92%) and the CSI 300 (-0.39%). This follows a weaker performance in western markets on Thursday; in the United States, the Dow Jones closed down by 0.53% at 25,986.92, while in Europe the Euro Stoxx 50 closed down by 0.73% at 3,430.99. The weakness seems to be driven by a combination of the potential for an escalation in the scale of US tariffs against China and increasing weakness in some emerging market currencies.

The dollar index is on a back footing this morning as it consolidates in low ground around 94.63. On the chart, the move above 95.66 on August 10 suggested the index had triggered a bullish Head and Shoulders Pattern, but failure to pusher again soon could start to make it look toppy.

With the base metals prices trading inversely to the dollar, the direction of the dollar remains all important.

With the dollar consolidating in low ground the other major currencies we follow are either extending gains or are consolidating around recent highs: sterling (1.3023), the euro (1.1682), the Australian dollar (0.7254) and the yen (110.99).

The yuan is also consolidating and was recently quoted at 6.8296, but most of the emerging market currencies we follow are either weakening, or consolidating in, or near, low ground. The exception is the Mexican peso that is consolidating in mid-ground.

The economic agenda is busy today, with a lot of data out already: Japanese data looked mixed and German retail sales came in worse than expected with a 1.4% fall – see table below for details. Data out later includes French, Italian and the European Union’s consumer price index (CPI), Italian and EU unemployment rates, with US data including the Chicago PMI and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

For the most part, the base metals’ rally off the mid-August lows are now consolidating so it is too early to say whether they are just pausing, or whether selling is starting to dominate again at the higher price levels. Lead looks the most likely to extend gains, while nickel looks to be in the weakest position.

Overall, on the basis of recent oversold prices, large short positions, relatively healthy long-term fundamentals and a pick-up in physical interest, we do favor the upside from these levels, but the market may need to build more of a base before buyers are prepared to chase prices higher. The next batch of manufacturing PMI data that is out on September 3 is likely to set the direction.

The most of precious metals are following the path of the base metals, which suggests they are also following the dollar and overall market sentiment – the exception is palladium that is powering ahead with its rebound that has seen prices rally 18% from the mid-August low.

The post METALS MORNING VIEW 31/08: Pick-up in China’s PMI data fails to excite base metals prices appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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Upside Targets For Gold, Gold Stocks And Silver



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четверг, 30 августа 2018 г.

Is 17-Year Gold Bug Opportunity Forming?



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Gold: Risk-Off Flows Threaten Recovery



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Are Silver And Gold At The Flood Stage?



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Chart Of The Day: For Gold Traders Now, The Trend Is Indeed Your Friend



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Gold’s Fundamental Price In Big Move As Scarcity Increases Supply



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Brexit EU Remarks Ease Global Trade Tensions



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среда, 29 августа 2018 г.

Has Gold Finally Bottomed?



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Are You Ready For The Fall Fireworks In Gold And Silver After Labor Day?



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USD Drops Could Send Gold On A Major Bull Run



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Preparing For 'The' Bottom In Gold: Buy-And-Hold On Steroids



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Gold And Silver Daily Forecast - 29 August 2018



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вторник, 28 августа 2018 г.

Where Next For Gold?



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Here's How I'm Playing The Precious Metals



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Gold: The Rally Accelerates



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METALS MORNING VIEW 28/08: Follow-through buying still evident after metals extend rebound gains

Three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were for the most part in positive territory on the morning of Tuesday August 28, with nickel prices bucking the trend with a 0.2% decline, while the rest were up by between 0.2% for copper at $6,082 per tonne and 0.7% for zinc at $2,545 per tonne.

Volume has been above average with 8,473 lots traded as at 07.23am London time.

This morning’s general firmness follows a firmer performance last Friday that saw the complex close up by an average of 1.1%, with only tin ending the day in negative territory.

Precious metals prices were up across the across the board with gains averaging 1.1% – led by a 2.3% rise in platinum prices, while spot gold prices were up by 0.4% at $1,210.10 per tonne.

In China, base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were mixed with the October contracts for copper and aluminium down by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, while the rest of the base metals were showing gains of between 0.1% and 0.5%. The most actively traded October copper contract was recently quoted at 48,570 yuan ($7,123) per tonne.

Spot copper prices in Changjiang were down by 0.4% at 48,520-48,670 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio was weaker at 7.99 after 8.09 last Friday.

In other metals in China, the January iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was down by 0.7% at 481 yuan per tonne. On the SHFE, the January steel rebar contract was down by 0.6%, while the December gold and silver contracts were up by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively.

In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices were up by 0.68% at $76.11 per barrel this morning. The yield on US 10-year treasuries was weaker at 2.8464%, while the German 10-year bund yield at 0.3700% was firmer.

Asian equity markets were for the most part stronger on Tuesday: Nikkei (+0.06%), Kospi (+0.17%), the ASX200 (+0.57%) and the Hang Seng (0.24%), while the CSI 300 dipped by 0.2%. This follows a stronger performance in western markets on Monday; in the United States, the Dow Jones closed up by 1.01% at 26,049.64, while in Europe the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up by 0.83% at 3,456.01.

The dollar index is on a back footing this morning and was recently quoted at 94.86, which extends last Wednesday’s low of 94.93. On the chart, the move above 95.66 on August 10 suggested the index had triggered a bullish head and shoulder pattern, so we need to be wary about how far this pullback in the index goes, as it could just be testing the validity of the breakout.

With the base metals prices trading inversely to the dollar, any resumption of the dollar’s bull market could further weigh on metals’ prices, while if the breakout fails and the dollar weakens then that could be supportive.

Despite the dollar drifting, most of the other major currencies we follow are still consolidating: sterling (1.2868), the euro (1.1670), the Australian dollar (0.7324) and the yen (111.22).

The yuan is firmer and was recently quoted at 6.8147, but most of the emerging market currencies we follow are consolidating in, or near, low ground. Despite the United States-Mexico Trade Agreement, the peso is also consolidating at around 18.8320.

On the economic agenda, data out already shows the Bank of Japan’s core consumer price index (CPI) rising 0.5%, up from 0.4% previously. Later we have the European Union’s M3 money supply and private loans data along with US releases that include goods trade balance, preliminary wholesale inventories, composite house prices, consumer confidence and Richmond Manufacturing Index.

For the most part, the base metals’ rally off the mid-August lows continues; the exceptions are nickel and tin where prices are consolidating above recent lows. The next key economic data as far as the metals are concerned is probably China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI), but that is not out until Friday, so we wait to see if the rebound can last until then.

Overall, on the basis of oversold prices, large short positions, relatively healthy long-term fundamentals and a pick-up in physical interest, we do favor the upside from these levels, but the market may need to build more of a base before buyers are prepared to chase prices higher.

The precious metals are following the path of the base metals, which suggests they are also following the dollar and overall market sentiment.

London Metal Exchange, base metals prices

Shanghai Futures Exchange, base metals prices

macroeconomic data

The post METALS MORNING VIEW 28/08: Follow-through buying still evident after metals extend rebound gains appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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METALS MORNING VIEW 24/08: Rebounds underway in most of the metals

Three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were for the most part in positive territory on the morning of Friday August 24, with tin prices bucking the trend with a 0.3% decline, while the rest were up by between 0.2% for aluminium and 1.1% for lead. The three-month copper contract was up by 0.8% at $6,014 per tonne.

Volume has been high with 9,953 lots traded as at 07.31am London time.

This morning’s general weakness follows a mixed performance on Thursday that saw some polarized price moves with nickel down by 2.5% and lead closing up by 2.2%, copper off by 0.8% and tin down by 0.6%, while zinc and aluminium were up by 0.1% and 0.2% respectively.

Precious metals prices were up across the across the board with gains averaging 0.6% – led by a 1.1% rise in platinum prices, while spot gold prices were up by 0.3% at $1,188.97 per tonne.

In China, base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were for the most part firmer, the exception being nickel where prices were off by 0.9%. The rest were up by an average of 1.4%, led by a 2.6% gains in the October lead and zinc contracts. The most actively traded October copper contract was up by 0.8% at 48,630 yuan ($7,072) per tonne.

Spot copper prices in Changjiang were up by 0.4% at 48,380-48,580 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio was weaker at 8.09 after 8.11 on Thursday.

In other metals in China, the January iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was up by 0.1% at 489.50 yuan per tonne. On the SHFE, the January steel rebar contract was down by 07%, while the December gold and silver contracts were down by 0.2% and 0.3% respectively.

In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices were up by 0.60% at $75.15 per barrel this morning. The yield on US 10-year treasuries was firmer at 2.8291%, as was the German 10-year bund yield at 0.3450%.

Asian equity markets were for the most part stronger on Friday: Nikkei (+0.85%), CSI 300 (+0.53%), Kospi (+0.46%, the ASX200 (+0.05%), while the Hang Seng is bucking the trend with a 0.15% decline. This follows a weaker performance in western markets on Thursday; in the United States, the Dow Jones closed down by 0.30% at 25,656.98, while in Europe the Euro Stoxx 50 closed down by 0.03% at 3,419.26.

The dollar index is consolidating this morning and was recently quoted at 95.48, after Wednesday’s low of 94.93. On the chart, the move above 95.66 on August 10 suggested the index had triggered a bullish head and shoulder pattern, so we need to be wary about how far the recent pullback in the index goes, as it could just be testing the validity of the breakout. With the base metals prices trading inversely to the dollar, any resumption of the dollar’s bull market could further weigh on metals’ prices.

With the US dollar consolidating and slightly weaker, most of the other major currencies we follow are also consolidating: sterling (1.2827), the euro (1.1570), the Australian dollar (0.7282), but the yen is weaker at 111.35.

The yuan is also weaker and was recently quoted at 6.8846, as are most of the emerging market currencies we follow, especially the Brazilian real (4.1122) amid political uncertainty ahead of elections that is undermining confidence.

On the economic agenda, data out already shows Japan’s core consumer price index (CPI) rising 0.8% and services producer price index (PPI) rise 1.1%, both unchanged from previous readings, while Germany’s final gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.5%, which was also unchanged.

Data out later includes high street lending from the United Kingdom and US durable goods orders. In addition, UK Monetary Policy Committee member Andrew Haldane and US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell are speaking at the central bankers’ meeting at Jackson Hole in the US state of Wyoming.

In recent reports we wondered whether the rally in the base metals was just another “dead-cat bounce” – the market seems undecided as aluminium, lead and zinc prices are continuing to extend rebound gains, while the rebounds in copper, nickel and tin prices stalled on Thursday. With US-China trade talks ending without any breakthrough the markets are likely to remain nervous. Today, with the long weekend ahead for the UK and therefore the LME, there may be some book squaring and firmer prices as a result.

Overall, on the basis of oversold prices, large short positions, relatively healthy long-term fundamentals and a pick-up in physical interest, we do favor the upside from these levels, but the market may need to establish a base before buyers are prepared to chase prices higher.

The precious metals are following the path of the base metals, which suggests they are also following the dollar and overall market sentiment.

London Metal Exchange, base metals prices

Shanghai Futures Exchange, base metals prices

macroeconomic data

The post METALS MORNING VIEW 24/08: Rebounds underway in most of the metals appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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METALS MORNING VIEW 23/08: Metals prices consolidate; markets awaiting direction from PMI data, Chinese trade talks

Three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were mainly down on the morning of Thursday August 23, with lead prices bucking the trend with a 0.2% rise, while the rest were off by between 0.5% for aluminium and 1.5% for nickel. The three-month copper contract was down by 1.2% at $5,941 per tonne.

Volume has been high with 11,053 lots traded as at 07.37am London time.

This morning’s general weakness follows a mixed performance on Wednesday that saw copper prices fall 0.8%, gains in zinc and tin of 1.3% and 0.9% respectively, while the rest were little changed.

Precious metals prices were weaker across the board with prices down by an average of 0.6%, with spot gold prices off by 0.4% at $1,192.10 per oz.

In China, base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange also gave a varied performance this morning; the October lead and zinc contracts were up by 1.7% and 1.2% respectively, while the rest of the complex was weaker, with the most actively traded October contract down by 0.8% at 48,160 yuan ($7,037) per tonne.

Spot copper prices in Changjiang were down by 0.9% at 48,130-48,400 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio was firmer at 8.11 after 8.08 on Wednesday.

In other metals in China, the January iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was down by 1.4% at 486.50 yuan per tonne. On the SHFE, the January steel rebar contract was down by 07%, while the December gold contract was up by 0.3% and the December silver contract was down by 0.4%.

In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices were down by 0.50% at $74.49 per barrel this morning. The yield on US 10-year treasuries was weaker at 2.8144%, while the German 10-year bund yield was firmer at 0.3410%. The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) showed a Fed on course to continuing tightening monetary policy, but they did discuss whether they have room to act should another recession get underway. In addition, they noted a key risk was if the trade wars escalated.

Asian equity markets were mixed on Thursday: Nikkei (+0.22%), Hang Seng (-0.43%), CSI 300 (+0.38%), Kospi (+0.41%) and the ASX200 (-0.34%). This follows a similarly mixed performance in western markets on Wednesday; in the United States, the Dow Jones closed down by 0.34% at 25,733.60, while in Europe the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up by 0.25% at 3,420.18.

The dollar index is rebounding this morning and was recently quoted at 95.32, after Wednesday’s low of 94.93. On the chart, the move above 95.66 on August 10 suggested the index had triggered a bullish head and shoulder pattern, so we need to be wary about how far the recent pullback in the index goes, as it could just be testing the validity of the breakout. With the base metals prices trading inversely to the dollar, any resumption of the dollar’s bull market could further weigh on metals’ prices.

With the US dollar firmer, most of the other major currencies we follow are weaker: sterling (1.2878), the euro (1.1568), the Australian dollar (0.7295) and the yen (110.80).

The yuan is also weaker and was recently quoted at 6.8682, while most of the emerging market currencies we follow are also slightly weaker.

The economic agenda is heavy today, with data out already showing Japan’s flash manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) edged higher to 52.5 from an upwardly revised 52.3 and previous print of 51.6. Later there is flash manufacturing and services data out across Europe and the US. In addition, there is data on UK realized sales, US initial jobless claims, Chinese leading indicators, US house prices and new home sales, EU consumer confidence and US natural gas storage.

In addition, Germany’s Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann is speaking and day one of the central bankers’ meeting at Jackson Hole in the US state of Wyoming gets underway.

In recent reports we wondered whether the rally in the base metals was just another “dead-cat bounce” and the weakness in copper, nickel and tin suggests it may be. That said, today’s PMI data is likely to set the tone as are the US-China trade talks that get underway in Washington.

Overall, on the basis of oversold prices, large short positions and relatively healthy long-term fundamentals, we do favor the upside from these levels, but the market may need to establish a base before buyers are prepared to chase prices higher.

The precious metals are following the path of the base metals, which suggests they are also following the dollar and overall market sentiment.

London Metal Exchange, base metals prices

Shanghai Futures Exchange, base metals prices

macroeconomic data

The post METALS MORNING VIEW 23/08: Metals prices consolidate; markets awaiting direction from PMI data, Chinese trade talks appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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METALS MORNING VIEW 22/08: Metal price rebounds halt, markets waiting for new direction

Base metals prices were mixed on the London Metal Exchange on the morning of Wednesday August 22, with weakness seen in copper, lead and zinc, while nickel and tin prices increased and aluminium remained unchanged.

Copper was down by 0.6%, lead down 0.2% and zinc down 0.9%, while nickel was up 0.8% and tin up 0.3%. Three-month copper prices were recently quoted at $6,027 per tonne.

Volumes have been average, with 5,775 lots traded as at 07.10am London time.

This morning’s consolidation follows a general day of firmness, with the base metals complex closing up by an average of 1.1%.

Precious metals prices were slightly weaker, with gold, silver and platinum prices all off by 0.1%. Spot gold was at $1,194.45 per oz, while palladium prices fell 0.4%. This follows a day of gains for gold and silver prices on Tuesday, with prices up either side of 0.4%, while the platinum group metals were weaker.

In China, base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were in positive territory as took their direction from Tuesday’s LME session.

Prices were up by an average of 0.7%, with gains of 0.3% for aluminium and 1.4% for tin. The most actively traded October copper contract was up by 0.5% at 48,690 yuan ($7,114) per tonne.

Spot copper prices in Changjiang were up by 0.1% at 48,650-48,780 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio was firmer at 8.08 after 8.02 on Tuesday.

In other metals in China, the January iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was down by 0.7% at 493.50 yuan per tonne. On the SHFE, the January steel rebar contract was up by 0.6%, while the December gold and silver contracts were up by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively.

In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices were up by 0.10% at $72.86 per barrel this morning. The yield on US 10-year treasuries was little changed at 2.8269%, while the German 10-year bund yield was firmer at 0.3205%.

Asian equity markets were for the most part firmer on Tuesday: Nikkei (0.09%), Hang Seng (0.52%), CSI 300 (1.85%), Kospi (0.99%) while the ASX200 was off by -0.96%. This follows a firmer performance in western markets on Tuesday; in the United States, the Dow Jones closed up by 0.25% at 25,822.29, while in Europe the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up by 0.53% at 3,411.66.

The dollar index is consolidating and was recently quoted at 95.31, after last Wednesday’s peak of 96.99. On the chart, the move above 95.66 on August 10 suggested the index had triggered a bullish head and shoulder pattern, so we need to be wary about how far the recent pullback in the index goes, as it could just be testing the validity of the breakout. With the base metals prices trading inversely to the dollar, any resumption of the dollar’s bull market could further weigh on metals’ prices.

With the US dollar consolidating, most of the other major currencies we follow are also consolidating around recent highs: sterling (1.2901), the euro (1.1565), the Australian dollar (0.7342) and the yen (110.41).

The yuan is also consolidating and was recently quoted at 6.8430 after having been as weak as 6.9347 on August 15. And most of the emerging market currencies we follow are consolidating, although the Brazilian real has weakened to a multi-year low of 4.0481.

The economic agenda is light today. Japan’s all-industries activity fell 0.85 after a 0.1% gain previously and data out later includes US existing home sales, crude oil inventories and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes. Thursday will be an important data day, when the flash manufacturing PMIs are released.

For now, the political developments in the US over some of US president Donald Trump’s team are not having too much of a negative impact on market sentiment, but that could change as the day unfolds.

This evening’s FOMC minutes are expected to remain hawkish, but if they show signs of concern over the potential impact of US trade policies and are less hawkish than expected, that could be negative for the dollar and therefore supportive of metal prices.

For now, the base metals price recoveries are on hold, so we wait to see if the recent strength is just another dead-cat bounce – we expect Thursday’s flash manufacturing PMI data to provide some direction.

Overall, on the basis of oversold prices, large short positions and relatively healthy long-term fundamentals, we do favor the upside from these levels, but the market may need to establish a base before buyers are prepared to chase prices higher.

The precious metals are following the path of the base metals, which suggests they are also following the dollar and overall market sentiment.

The post METALS MORNING VIEW 22/08: Metal price rebounds halt, markets waiting for new direction appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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Gold: “Buy The Dip” Continues



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During 2016 Correction, Gold And Silver Didn’t Fall, They Soared



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Gold's Primary Driver Right Now? It May Not Be What You Think



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Mexico Deal Buoys Hogs, Corn, But Commodities To Lag Without Canada, China



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Gold And Silver Daily Forecast - 28 August 2018



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воскресенье, 26 августа 2018 г.

WTF Just Happened? Gold And Silver Set-Up To Soar



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Gold And Silver Daily Forecast - 27 August 2018



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Gold At The Crossroads (But Its Bullish Drivers Might Surprise)



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COTs, Sentiment Super Bullish As Fed Set To Reverse Course



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Gold's First Up Week In The Last 7; S&P Surpasses Heaven



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Gold Speculators Pushed Their Bets More Bearish This Week



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Silver Speculators Added To Their Bearish Net Positions This Week



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Copper Speculators Go Bearish For 1st Time Since 2016



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четверг, 23 августа 2018 г.

A Gold Bottom But Will USD Cooperate?



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Gold Still In A Downtrend



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Gold Market Update For August 23, 2018



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Gold And Silver Daily Forecast - 23 August 2018



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среда, 22 августа 2018 г.

The Fundamental Case For Owning Gold Today



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Is Gold On Verge Of A Bottom, See For Yourself



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Gold Bounce Likely To Extend



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XAU/USD: Wave Analysis And Forecast For 17/08/2018 – 24/08/2018



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Gold And Silver Daily Forecast - 22 August 2018



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вторник, 21 августа 2018 г.

Spot Prices Are Falling, But Coin Premiums Are On The Rise



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Gold: Winning While Losing



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Golden Icing Now On The Cake



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Gold And The Turning Of Monetary Tides



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Wheaton Precious Metals: Q218 Results In Line With Expectations



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Gold And Silver Daily Forecast - 21 August 2018



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понедельник, 20 августа 2018 г.

Historical Repetition In The Precious-Metals Arena



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In Next Crisis, Gold Won’t Drop Like 2008, Report 19 August 2018



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This Past Week In Precious Metals



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Doc Copper Down 20%, Sending A Macro Message?



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Gold: Why Growing Bearish Sentiment Isn't A Market Timing Tool



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Commodities Week Ahead: Trade Talks, Weak Dollar Set Stage For Rally



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воскресенье, 19 августа 2018 г.

Gold Miners’ Q2’18 Fundamentals For August 19, 2018



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Gold Finally Moves, But The Wrong Way



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What Gold Is For Investors...And Is Not



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Gold And Silver Daily Forecast - 20 August 2018



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How Deep Can A Strong USD Take Gold?



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четверг, 16 августа 2018 г.

Silver Is Worth Its Weight In Gold



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METALS MORNING VIEW 16/08: Dip-buying emerges on China-US trade talks

News that trade talks between China and the United States will take place later this month has sparked risk-on sentiment in the London Metal Exchange base metals complex this morning.

Also, the risk of a ‘Lira contagion’ has subsided considerably after Turkish central bank intervened. Further support arrived in the form of $15 billion investment from Qatar into the Turkish economy, shoring up stability and causing risk sentiment to improve.

Following Wednesday’s vicious sell-off amid rising concerns over the health of the Chinese economy, the LME’s three-month base metal prices have rebounded strongly from their 2018 lows this morning with an average gain of 1.9% across the complex.

Zinc led the gains with a solid increase of 3.2%, followed by a 2.5% rise in sister-metal lead. The rest of the base metals were stronger across the board: nickel (+2%), tin (+1.5%), aluminium (+1.2%) and copper (+0.9%).

A total of 14,984 lots had been traded across the LME base metals complex as at 6.02am London time, suggesting a flurry of market activity, with this morning’s volume already much higher than the 5,365 lots traded on Tuesday.

Gains were also seen in the more industrial precious metals; platinum was up by 0.9% at $773.60 per oz, while palladium surged 1.7% to $857.70 per oz. This again reflects investors’ preference toward palladium over platinum’s less bullish fundamentals, with the gap between the two metals’ prices at around $84 per oz.

In other precious metals, the price of gold dipped as low as $1,160 per oz early on Thursday morning, near the yellow metal’s January 2018 low, while silver edged to a fresh 2018 low of $14.33 per oz – a level last seen in January 2016. But both metals are now rebounding from these earlier losses, with gold down just 0.1% and silver up by 0.4%. Both metals’ prices continue to inch back toward positive territory while the dollar index retreats from this year’s peak of 96.99 to 96.42 at the time of writing.

Still, the strong dollar and fragile market confidence continues to negatively affect base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with prices down across the board with an average loss of 2.3%. Zinc led the decline with its most-traded October zinc contract declining by 4.1%, while the rest followed lower: lead (-2.9%), copper (-2.5%), nickel (-2.1%), tin (-1.2%) and aluminium (-1.1%). The most-traded October contract recently traded at 47,640 yuan ($6,886) per tonne.

In other metals in China, precious metals on the SHFE similarly struggled this morning, with the December gold and silvers down by 1.4% and 3% respectively.
The October steel rebar contract on the SHFE was down by 0.3% at 4,141 yuan per tonne, retreating lower amid rising concerns that the Chinese economy has started to cool down. The January iron ore contract traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was down 2% to 494 yuan per tonne.

Spot Brent crude oil prices found support near the psychological support level at $70 per barrel and has rebounded higher this morning to $71.19 per barrel at the time of writing. In the bond market, US 10-year treasuries were higher this morning, up 0.44% to 2.8750%. In Europe, the German 10-year bund yield was recently trading at 0.3200%, up an astonishing 5.9% so far after worries over Turkey’s currency crisis have eased and the resumption of trade talks between the US and China has given market participants’ appetite for risk a boost.

In equities, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 137 points or 0.54% on Wednesday, while the S&P 500 Index also edged lower – down 0.76% to trade near 2,818. Similarly, European equities failed to register any gains on Wednesday with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.48% to around 3,359.

That said, pre-market trading activity in US and European equities this morning have turned positive alongside a mixed picture in Asian equity markets: risk-on sentiment has supported the Nikkei 225 and the CSI 300 to record a slight gains of 0.01% and 0.05% respectively. Other indices in Asia struggled however, with the Topix down 0.61%, the Hang Seng weaker by 0.59% and the ASX 200 down by 0.01%.

In the currency market, the dollar index has retreated from its 2018 high at 96.99 and currently trades near 96.50. This has provided relief in both emerging and commodity currencies this morning, while the Turkish Lira has garnered more support as it strengthens towards 5.78 – a stark contrast to its performance in the past few days when it slid toward 7.00 against the dollar.

Data out on Thursday includes UK retail sales, the European Union’s trade balance and US releases that include building permits, housing starts and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index.

Even though the LME base metals prices have reacted higher this morning, it is far too early to confirm that the bearish rout is over. Previous talks between the US and China took place in May but US President Donald Trump backed out after what looked like a potential trade deal had gone sour. Expectations are that the two sides may have better chance of reaching a deal this time around after the US and EU reached a conciliatory deal during their July meeting.

The dollar index continues to dictate precious metals price action, with gold and silver under intense downside pressure that has yet to subside since the June high at $1,309.50 per oz and $17.32 per oz respectively. Still, demand for haven assets should increase in due course amid the simmering geopolitical tensions in Turkey, Iran and Russia. With the precious metals and platinum group metals overly bearish in net speculative funds positioning and exchange-traded fund investment, a contrarian trade now looks more attractive.

The post METALS MORNING VIEW 16/08: Dip-buying emerges on China-US trade talks appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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Who Would Invest In A Gold Bond?



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Gold Bulls Capitulated



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After Bottoming Overnight Gold Recovers Strongly; Silver Stabilizes



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Gold And Silver: Similar To 2008



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Gold Blows



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Gold Continues To Fall Fast



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Gold And Silver Daily Forecast: August 16, 2018



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Gold Miner Buy Signal Alert (GDX)



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среда, 15 августа 2018 г.

Commodities And Global Markets



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No Safety In Gold



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How Gold And Will Silver Trade During The Next Market Crash



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Has Inflation Peaked?



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вторник, 14 августа 2018 г.

Golden Ridge Resources Makes A Major Discovery In The ‘Golden Triangle’



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Gasoline Could Turn Highier Again In November



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Gold And Silver Daily Forecast - 15 August 2018



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Gold Bugs Can’t Get A Break



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METALS MORNING VIEW 14/08: Base metals prices consolidate near recent lows amid pause in selling

Three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange consolidated higher from recent lows on the morning of Tuesday August 14 as relative calmness swept through the market to support a return of risk-on sentiment after the Turkish Lira stabilized at 6.8700 against the dollar earlier today.

But disappointing Chinese data out this morning has limited any gains across the base metals complex amid rising concerns over the health of the world’s second largest economy; Chinese fixed asset investment, industrial production and retail sales data all failed to live up to market expectations.

The LME base metals were up by an average of 0.4% as at 5.46am London time on Tuesday, with a total of 5,365 lots traded across the complex. Lead was the strongest performer with a gain of 0.8%, followed by increases of 0.7%, 0.4% and 0.3% in zinc, nickel and aluminium respectively. Copper and tin failed to register any price gains this morning, indicating that there is a lack of buying interest in either metal.

Still, the selling momentum has slowed considerably.

Monday’s sell-off in the commodities market has also negatively affected the more industrial precious metals this morning; platinum was down by 0.1% to trade at $800 per oz, while palladium was unchanged but currently finding support at around $892 per tonne.

Bullion prices were both stronger, however, with gold up by 0.1% at $1,195.36 per oz, while silver has consolidated higher but remains vulnerable to further downside with the support level at $15.00 per oz looking fragile. The strength in gold and silver prices comes after both reached fresh 2018 lows on Monday at $1,191.80 per oz and $14.97 per oz respectively.

US President Donald Trump’s administration is one busy fighting battles on many fronts; from fresh political instability after sanctions were implemented against Iran, Turkey and Russia to an ongoing trade dispute with China, the heightened global tensions have sent jitters through global markets. Against such a negative macroeconomic backdrop, the demand outlook for industrial metals has deteriorated considerably.

In China, base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have reacted lower this morning, with the complex down by an average of 0.7%. Leading the decline was the most-traded October zinc contract with a fall of 1.8%, followed by nickel (-1.5%), tin (-0.8%) and copper (-0.3%). Only lead and aluminium prices managed to buck the weaker tone on the SHFE this morning, with mild gains of 0.3% and 0.1% respectively. But with the majority of the complex struggling, overall sentiment is relatively bearish and remains subject to further downside pressure.

In other metals in China, the December gold and December silver contracts on the SHFE were down by 0.8% and 1.1% respectively, but the October steel rebar contract leapt 1.5% to 4,344 yuan per tonne – possibly fueled by the strong demand expectations after Chinese authorities proceeded with further stimulus spending to boost infrastructure spending. The Dalian Commodity Exchange’s January iron ore contract was also stronger, ticking 0.4% higher to 513 per tonne.

Spot Brent crude oil prices dipped below $71.00 per barrel on Monday but have started to edge higher this morning amid bargain-hunting interest, currently trading at $72.80 per barrel. In the bond market, US 10-year treasuries were a tad higher at 2.8840% but the Turkish Lira contagion has encouraged European investors to flock to the safety of government bonds, with the German 10-year bund yield trading below 0.3200%, a stark contrast to last week’s 0.3900%.

Asian equity markets were mixed on Tuesday: risk-on sentiment has supported the Nikkei and Topix higher, with gains of 2.02% and 1.46% respectively, but Chinese equities were understandably weaker after the disappointing economic data earlier this morning with the Hang Seng Index and Shenzhen CSI 300 down by 1.46% and 0.62% respectively. This comes after weakness in western markets on Monday; in the United States, the Dow Jones closed down by 125 points or 0.5% at 25,187, while the S&P500 also struggled as it fell 0.4% to 2,821.

In currencies, the dollar index has retreated from its 2018 high of 96.53 reached on Monday and is currently trading near 96.27. This has provided relief to both emerging market currencies and commodity markets this morning.

After a flurry of economic data from China this morning, the agenda remains fairly busy with French and German consumer price index (CPI) readings, the United Kingdom’s unemployment rate, EU gross domestic product, German ZEW Economic sentiment and US import prices.

The lack of buying conviction in the base metals complex has hurt sentiment and kept rebound momentum limited. Price gains seen last week were short lived, with the demand outlook towards the base metals complex remaining fragile. Negative Chinese economic data this morning has been well absorbed, but the turmoil in the currency market could continue to undermine risk sentiment. Against the current backdrop of uncertainty, the base metals prices remain vulnerable to further downside in the very short term.

Despite market turmoil and violent currency fluctuations, the precious metals prices failed to register any significant bids on the back of haven-demand. Instead, the strong dollar index continues to dictate gold prices and the break of the psychological support level at $1,200 per oz does not bode well.  Speculative fund positioning has deteriorated further, with significant build-up in the gross short position; Comex speculators have turned more confident with their bearish bets.

Similarly, the platinum group metals have been the subject of fresh selling from Nymex speculators. With no immediate sign that the downside pressure is letting up, the precious metals complex could continue to struggle near recent lows.

London Metal Exchange, base metals prices

Shanghai Futures Exchange, base metals prices

macroeconomic data

The post METALS MORNING VIEW 14/08: Base metals prices consolidate near recent lows amid pause in selling appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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The Stories Your Parents Told You About Gold Aren’t True Either



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Chart Of The Day: Gold's Downward Reversal May Be Here To Stay



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Silver Slides Below 15.22



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Gold Stocks Are Not Too Oversold Yet



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The Good News Is Known And Priced In, More Down In The ES?



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понедельник, 13 августа 2018 г.

Garbage Gold



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Key Factors For Gold And Silver Investors



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Gold Ready To Collapse To $1150 USD/oz or Lower 13-08-2018



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This Past Week In Precious Metals



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Gold Enters New Bearish Phase



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Gold: Bearish Fundamentals, Bullish Sentiment



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A Typical Day For Gold As Rally Is Reversed On 30 Minute Chart



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Washout: Big And Small Specs Barely Net Positive On Gold As Shorts Pile On



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Commodities Week Ahead: Lira Plunge Weighs On Gold; Iran Sanctions Pressure Oil



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четверг, 9 августа 2018 г.

Gold Bulls Hoping For A Rally



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BoE Hikes For The Second Time Since Lehman



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METALS MORNING VIEW 09/08: Buying interest in base metals piqued

Three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were positively higher in the morning of Thursday August 9, with the complex up an average of 0.4%.

Leading the gains was LME copper, up 1.1%, followed by tin (+0.5%), lead and zinc (both up 0.4%). Meanwhile, aluminium is up 0.1%, consolidating after yesterday’s strong surge of 3.2% amid industrial action at Alcoa’s Pinjarra alumina refinery. Having vaulted above $14,000 per tonne on Wednesday August 8, the LME nickel price was unchanged at $14,035 per tonne this morning.

Trading volume as at 05:47am London time was higher too, with 6,127 lots already traded, a further sign that buying interest toward the base metals complex is on the rise.

Precious prices firm as dip-buying interest continues
The buying theme applies across the precious metals complex too, with an average gain of 0.5%. Gold and silver prices were up by 0.1% and 0.3%, while platinum and palladium were both up 0.8%.

The surge in the LME aluminium price on Wednesday August 8 has translated into a stronger Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminium price, up 2.2% to 14,805 yuan ($2,167) per tonne based on its most-traded October contract. Lead prices were up 1% while nickel was up 0.7%, copper up 0.6% and zinc secured a 0.5% gain. Tin was the only exception, down 0.1% at the time of writing. Still, the base metals prices on the SHFE were up strong by an average of 0.8%.

Other metals on the SHFE were less positive. The October steel rebar contract was down 0.8% to 4,206 yuan per tonne. The most traded December gold and silver contract stood unchanged this morning. Meanwhile, the January iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is trading at 512 yuan per tonne.

Undermined by escalating trade tensions, spot Brent crude oil prices struggled to clear above $75.00 per barrel and are consolidating near recent lows this morning at $72.50 per barrel. In the bond market, US 10-year treasuries were weaker at 2.9504%, while the German 10-year bund yield has edged lower to 0.3900%.

Following on from a weaker performance in US and European equity markets, Asian equity markets were mixed this morning. The US Dow Jones was down 45 points and S&P 500 index was mildly lower by (-0.03%). The Nikkei and Topix were down (-0.03%) and (-0.1%) respectively while others such as the Hang Seng (+1.14%), the CSI 300 (+2.66%) and the ASX 200 (+0.57%) index enjoyed a relief rally higher as risk sentiment toward Chinese economic outlook has improved.

Weakness in the dollar index is helping boost metals prices already this morning. The greenback has struggled to garner bids since the Monday August 6 high of 95.53. The index is down 0.02% at the time of writing and trades at 95.08. A technical break below psychological price level at 95.00 could trigger more selling. This bodes well for both the base and precious metals prices as well as commodities currencies to wiggle higher. Ever since the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) took steps on Friday August 3 to boost forwards foreign exchange trading requirements to 20%, the Chinese yuan has firmed to 6.8164.

Economic data on Thursday August 9 saw Japan core machinery orders that came in below market expectation while Chinese consumer price index and producers price index numbers beat expectations. Market focus will turn to a host of US data, with core CPI and unemployment claims, followed by final wholesale inventories.

The base metals complex has started to come to terms that its improving fundamental factors such as falling global inventory stocks levels and generally tight supply chain matters. In the current period of low prices, bargain-hunting with “buy-the-dip” mentality is also at work since most of the negative impact from trade tensions are already priced in.

That said, buyers should not be complacent here and it is rather obvious that more buying is needed in the base metals in order to build a solid foundation for a counter-reversal rally to last. If the supply disruption matters in aluminium, LME copper prices should attract more buying interest in the coming days.

With the dollar index retreating this morning, the precious metals complex has attracted mild buying interest. But gains seen on both gold and silver remain limited because prices have spent most of this week trading within a tight range. Comex speculative funds positioning remains relatively bearish and the lack of fresh buying among long-term ETF investors explains the lack of impetus for further upside for now.

Metals Morning View LME overnight performance

Metals Morning View Economic Calendar

The post METALS MORNING VIEW 09/08: Buying interest in base metals piqued appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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среда, 8 августа 2018 г.

Even More Cracks in the Golden Dam



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Will Gold Fall 15% On This Indicator?



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Gold Company Makes Huge Blunder By Investing In U.S. Shale Assets



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вторник, 7 августа 2018 г.

Another Golden Day Begins



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METALS MORNING VIEW 07/08: Metals prices generally firmer

Following a lackluster start to the trading week, the three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were mostly stronger on the morning of Tuesday August 7 amid bouts of bargain hunting, with the complex up by an average of 0.3%.

Aluminium and nickel bucked the general strength, with prices off by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, but the rest were firmer; copper, nickel and tin were up by 0.6%, while lead outperformed its peers with a gain of 0.8%.

Still, volume has been light with 3,347 lots traded as at 06:39am London time.

Bargain-hunting activity was seen across the precious metals too this morning, with the complex up by an average of 0.4%. Gold and silver prices were up by 0.1% and 0.2% respectively, while platinum and palladium were both up by 0.6%.

In China, base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were up by an average of 0.4% this morning, though this was skewed by 2.1% jump in the most-traded November nickel contract to 112,570 yuan ($16,438) per tonne. Tin and lead ticked up by 0.3% and 0.8% respectively, copper and aluminium were unchanged, while zinc slid by 0.6%.

In other metals in China, the SHFE’s October steel rebar contract was up by 1.5% to 4,236 yuan per tonne, while the December silver and gold contracts dipped by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively. Based on its previous close, the September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was up 3.5% to 502.50 yuan per tonne.

In other markets, spot Brent crude oil prices were firmer this morning, up 0.62% at $74.10 per barrel due to rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran. US 10-year treasuries were weaker at 2.9381%, while the German 10-year bund yield edge mildly higher to 0.3900%.

Asian equity market were generally positive this morning: Nikkei (+0.69%), Topix (+0.76%), Hang Seng (+1.16%) and CSI 300 (+1.95%), while the ASX 200 was off 0.30%. This follows a decent performance in western markets on Monday; in the US the Dow Jones index was up 40 points or (+0.16%) and S&P 500 index gained 10 points (+0.35%).

In currency markets, the dollar index has weakened to 95.24 this morning, down from Monday’s high of 95.53. With the index down 0.12% at the time of writing, it has given the precious metals prices and commodities currencies some room to wiggle higher. The Chinese yuan has firmed to 6.8473 but it is far too early to speculate a change in the prevailing downtrend even though the People Bank of China (PBoC) took steps on August 3 to increase its forwards foreign exchange trading requirements to 20%, which should make it more expensive to short the yuan.

The economic agenda is relatively light today, with data out already in Japan mostly in line with market expectations. Later, there are the German and French trade balances, the United Kingdom’s Halifax house price index and US releases that include Jolts job openings, IBD/TIPP economic optimism and consumer credit.

Despite the lingering trade tensions, selling momentum in the base metals complex has slowed considerably, while the dips are attracting bargain-hunting interest near the August lows.

Falling stocks and growing tightness in certain base metals are encouraging and it suggests that metals prices should recover higher if the positive fundamental backdrop can overcome the negative macroeconomic condition. Mining disruptions in Chile should give LME copper prices that extra support to push higher, while nickel can rely on its bullish micro-dynamics to keep its price elevated.

The more industrial precious metals of platinum and palladium have started to follow the base metals higher, while a weaker dollar should underpin the precious metals complex as a whole, allowing prices to enjoy a short-term relief rally.

The post METALS MORNING VIEW 07/08: Metals prices generally firmer appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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PRICING NOTICE: Fastmarkets discontinues its gold premium assessments

FastMarkets will discontinue its gold premium assessments from Tuesday August 7, when the last gold premium assessment will be published.

The decision to discontinue these prices follows internal analysis and feedback collected during a one-month consultation period that concluded they no longer serve the market.

FastMarkets’ final monthly gold premium assessments for three locations – Shanghai, Mumbai and Istanbul – will be published on Tuesday.

If you have any comments on the discontinuation of this price please contact Ewa Manthey by email at: pricing@metalbulletin.com. Please add the subject heading FAO: Ewa Manthey re: gold premium assessments.

To see all Metal Bulletin’s pricing methodology and specification documents go to https://www.metalbulletin.com/prices/pricing-methodology.html

The post PRICING NOTICE: Fastmarkets discontinues its gold premium assessments appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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Job Report: Is 157,000 A Lot?



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On The Verge Of The Next Major Decline



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понедельник, 6 августа 2018 г.

Will Gold See A Tradable Bounce Off $1200 Support?



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Silver Technicals: 08_06_18



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Gold Technicals: 08_06_18



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воскресенье, 5 августа 2018 г.

Gold And The Whole Enchilada



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Silver Company Expands Land Package, Gains E&D Rights In Bolivia



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пятница, 3 августа 2018 г.

Platinum, Too Cheap Not To Buy



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METALS MORNING VIEW 03/08: No let up in downward pressure in metals prices

Three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were for the most part weaker on the morning of Friday August 3, with the complex down by an average of 0.2%.

Aluminium and nickel prices were unchanged to slightly higher, while lead prices led on the downside with a 0.6% fall and copper prices were off by 0.3% at $6,124 per tonne.

This follows a mixed day on Thursday, when aluminium, nickel and tin prices closed down, while copper, zinc and led prices rose.

Volume has been light, with 4,800 lots traded as at 06.47am London time.

Gold and silver prices were both off by 0.1%, while the platinum group metals were up by 0.3%. Spot gold prices recently traded at $1,207.85 per oz – this after a down day on Thursday when gold prices dropped 0.6%.

In China, base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were mixed with copper, aluminium and zinc prices up by an average of 0.4%, while lead, nickel and tin prices were down by an average of 1.1%. The most-actively traded September copper contract was up by 0.2% at 49,330 yuan ($7,218) per tonne.

Spot copper prices in Changjiang were up by 0.2% at 49,190-49,320 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio was at 8.06 after 7.97 on Thursday.

In other metals in China, the September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was up by 2.1% at 483.50 yuan per tonne. On the SHFE, the October steel rebar contract was up by 1.2%, while the December gold and silver contracts were off by 0.2%.

In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices were up by 0.17% at $73.25 per barrel this morning. The yield on US 10-year treasuries was weaker at 2.9847%, while the German 10-year bund yield was similarly weaker at 0.4470%.

Asian equity markets were for the most part weaker again on Friday: Nikkei (-0.02%), Hang Seng (-0.10%), CSI 300 (-0.92%), ASX200 (-0.10%), while the Kospi climbed 0.77%. This follows a weaker performance in western markets on Thursday; in the United States, the Dow Jones closed down by 0.03% at 25,326.16, while in Europe the Euro Stoxx 50 closed down by 1.14% at 3,469.21.

The dollar index climbed on Thursday and was pushing higher again this morning, it was recently quoted at 95.18, but is still within its recent 93.71-95.66 range. On the chart, it looks like the dollar is building the right shoulder of a large inverse head-and-shoulder pattern, which is a bullish formation. Thursday’s strength in the dollar is the reason behind gold’s weaker tone this morning.

With the dollar stronger, most of the other major currencies we follow are weaker: sterling (1.3013), the euro (1.1582), the Australian dollar (0.7362), while the yen is consolidating at 111.67.

The yuan has weakened further and was recently quoted at 6.8734 – the low last December was 6.9633. The other emerging market currencies we follow are also looking weaker this morning, with the Asian currencies in low ground, while the real and peso are consolidating at levels further away from recent lows.

The economic agenda is busy again today, with China’s Caixin services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) falling to 52.8 from 53.9. Later, we have France’s government budget balance, services PMI data from Spain, Germany, Italy, France, United Kingdom, European Union and the US. Other data of note includes Italian industrial production, Italian and EU retail sales as well as the US employment report and trade balance.

Base metals prices had pushed off recent lows in late July, but prices are under pressure again after continuing and escalating trade war rhetoric has zapped traders and business confidence. Even strikes in South America have failed to lift copper prices.

The precious metals have also been negatively affected by the same factor hitting the base metals, especially with the dollar strengthening again. If broader markets start to follow the metals’ lead, then there may be a pick-up in demand for safe havens and at these prices levels, gold may look a well-priced safe haven. Fund short positions are large, so short-covering could become a bullish factor before too long, especially if the US Federal Reserve were to become less hawkish as a result of the likely contagion from a trade war.

The post METALS MORNING VIEW 03/08: No let up in downward pressure in metals prices appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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Gold Stocks’ Autumn Rally 3



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Construction MMI: June Spending Falls 1.1% From Previous Month



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The Trading Action In Gold



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Gold Bounce Levels Update



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Gold's December Contract Starts To Break Down



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четверг, 2 августа 2018 г.

Metal Bulletin parent company expands commodity price reporting ops with purchase of lumber pricing business

Leading lumber and wood products price reporting agency (PRA) Random Lengths will become part of Euromoney’s commodity price reporting division, which includes the Metal Bulletin operations. Euromoney Institutional Investor plc agreed to buy the US-based company on Wednesday August 1.

Founded in 1944 and located in Eugene, Oregon, Random Lengths provides independent price assessments and market reporting for the global wood products industry. It has a core focus on the North American lumber and panels markets, publishing more than 1,500 prices each week.

Together with RISI, a PRA for the global forest product industry that was acquired by Euromoney in April 2017, it will form the primary global source for pricing data and intelligence for the markets it serves.

Euromoney’s commodity price reporting division is headed by Raju Daswani, who is also the Metal Bulletin chief executive officer.

The Metal Bulletin group aims to provide leading pricing intelligence, including independent industry benchmarks, for the metal and mining industry. The group’s global portfolio of news, analysis, conferences and insight services complement these price benchmarks.

“We are delighted to have added Random Lengths to our group. It complements our existing forest products business and will enhance our ability to serve these markets with the products it needs,” Daswani said.

“In recent years, we have invested considerably in Metal Bulletin’s pricing technology and systems so that we can provide the best channels of delivery for our data into our client workflows but also increasing the transparency of our prices,” he added. “The investment we have made will now be available to our new business, which in turn will help us improve the service for clients of Random Lengths.”

Combined with existing pricing activities, the addition of Random Lengths will enhance Euromoney’s position as a global and world-class cross-commodity PRA, with more than 380 employees and over 5,500 reference prices & benchmarks.

The acquisition of Random Lengths this week and RISI in April 2017 follows the acquisition in August 2016 of FastMarkets, a leading provider of real-time physical base metals and exchange pricing information, which significantly enhanced Metal Bulletin’s position in price reporting.

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METALS MORNING VIEW 02/08: Metals prices attempt to rebound following Wednesday’s weakness

Three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were up across the board by an average of 0.7% on the morning of Thursday August 2.

Zinc led the gains with a 1.3% increase to $2,572 per tonne, while copper was up by 0.7% at $6,168 per tonne.

This follows a downbeat day on Wednesday when the complex closed with losses averaging 2.7%, led by a 4.8% drop in nickel and 3.6% fall in zinc. The weaker tone was due to heightened trade concerns in the market after US President Donald Trump threatened to raise tariffs against China.

Volume has been high this morning, with 10,870 lots traded as at 07.51am London time – high volume and across-the-board gains in prices bodes well for the complex, but sentiment is likely to remain fragile while trade wars rage on.

Precious metals were broadly stronger this morning; platinum rose by 0.6%, palladium and gold were up by 0.2% –with the latter at $1,218.90 per oz, while silver was unchanged. But, this follows weakness on Wednesday, when gold and silver prices fell by around 0.5%, while the platinum group metals fell by an average of 1.7%.

In China, base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange followed Wednesday’s weaker performance on the LME, with prices down an average of 1.4% this morning. The most-actively traded September copper contract down by 1.6% at 49,140 yuan ($7,210) per tonne.

Spot copper prices in Changjiang were down by 1.5% at 49,070-49,250 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio was at 7.97.

In other metals in China, the September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was down by 0.8% at 476.50 yuan per tonne. On the SHFE, the October steel rebar contract was down by 1.5%, while the December gold and silver contracts were off by 0.1% and 0.3% respectively.

In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices were up by 0.02% at $72.59 per barrel this morning. The yield on US 10-year treasuries was firmer at 2.9905%, while the German 10-year bund yield was also firmer at 0.4750%.

Asian equity markets were weaker on Thursday with markets reacting to Trump’s latest tariff threats: Nikkei (-1.03%), Kospi (-1.60%), Hang Seng (-2.31%), CSI 300 (-2.22%) and ASX200 (-0.56%). This follows a weaker performance in western markets on Wednesday; in the US, the Dow Jones closed down by 0.32% at 25,333.82, while in Europe the Euro Stoxx 50 closed down by 0.66% at 3,486.15.

Poor US total vehicle sales for July that fell to 16.8 million units, annualized, from 17.5 million units and weaker than expected US purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data, are also weighing on sentiment. That said, the US Federal Open Market Committee remains upbeat about the US economy.

The dollar index, at 94.86, is firmer within its recent 93.71-95.66 range. On the chart, it looks like the dollar is building the right shoulder of a large inverse head-and-shoulder formation.

Most of the other major currencies we follow are consolidating with a slightly weaker bias; sterling (1.3080), the euro (1.1632), the Australian dollar (0.7378), while the yen is firmer at 111.63.

The yuan remains on a back footing and was recently quoted at 6.8199. The other emerging market currencies we follow are also looking weaker this morning.

The economic agenda is busy again today, with data out already showing Japan’s monetary base climbed 7% and Spanish unemployment change fell 27,100.

European data out later includes UK construction producer price index (PPI), EU PPI and the Bank of England’s interest rate decision – the bank is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points and will be updating its latest monetary policy decisions. US releases include Challenger job cuts, initial jobless claims, factory orders and natural gas storage.

Base metals prices had pushed off recent lows but failed to attract follow-through buying and Wednesday’s weakness suggests that, at best, prices are still base building and they could test support again. Continuing and escalating trade war rhetoric is zapping traders and business and in this climate it is difficult to see buyers return with confidence. That said, if bases are established then there will be potential for short-covering. Meanwhile for copper, prices could rally if Escondida workers vote for a strike.

In the precious metals, gold prices are holding in low ground, while silver and platinum prices are giving back more of their recent gains. Meanwhile, palladium prices are weaker but are still well above recent lows. Fund short positions are large, so short-covering could become a bullish factor before too long, especially if the US Federal Reserve were to become less hawkish as a result of the likely contagion from a trade war.

London Metal Exchange, base metals prices

Shanghai Futures Exchange, base metals prices

macroeconomic data

The post METALS MORNING VIEW 02/08: Metals prices attempt to rebound following Wednesday’s weakness appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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METALS MORNING VIEW 01/08: Metals prices retreat again after Chinese manufacturing PMI disappoints

Three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were down across the board by an average of 1% on the morning of Wednesday August 1. Zinc led the decline with a 1.7% drop to $2,590 per tonne, while copper was down by 1.2% at $6,244 per tonne.

The disappointing release of China’s Caixin manufacturing purchasing manager’s index (PMI) for July – easing to 50.8 from 51 and below the expected 50.9 – has dampened sentiment, although a stronger manufacturing PMI in Japan that climbed to 52.3 from 51.6 was encouraging.

This follows a day of strength on Tuesday when the complex closed up by an average of 1%, led by a 3.4% rebound in zinc prices.

Volume has been above average with 7,807 lots traded across the complex as at 6.51am London time.

Precious metals were split with spot gold and silver prices off between 0.2% and 0.3%, with gold prices at $1,220.25 per oz, while the platinum group metals (PGMs) were up between 0.1% and 0.2%. This follows a day of strength on Tuesday when the complex closed up by an average of 0.3%.

In China, base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were mixed, but with more of an upside bias. Lead and tin prices led on the downside with drops of 0.6% and 0.5% respectively, while the rest were up by an average of 0.6% – led by a 1.2% rebound in zinc prices. The most-actively traded September copper contract was up by 0.2% to 49,500 yuan ($7,256) per tonne.

Spot copper prices in Changjiang were up by 0.4% at 49,850-49,960 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio was at 7.99.

In other metals in China, the September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was down by 2.6% at 475 yuan per tonne. On the SHFE, the October steel rebar contract was up by 0.5%, while the December gold and silver contracts were both down by 0.1%.

In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices were down by 0.25% at $73.98 per barrel this morning. The yield on US 10-year treasuries was firmer at 2.9752%, while the German 10-year bund yield was also firmer at 0.4600%.

Asian equity markets were mixed on Wednesday: Nikkei (+0.84%), Kospi (+0.52%), Hang Seng (-0.22%), CSI 300 (-0.74%) and ASX200 (-0.09%). This follows a stronger performance in western markets on Tuesday; in the United States, the Dow Jones closed up by 0.43% at 25,415.19, while in Europe the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up by 0.38% at 3,525.49.

The dollar index, at 94.66, is firmer within its recent 93.71-95.66 range. On the chart, it looks like the dollar is building the right shoulder of a large inverse head-and-shoulder formation.

Most of the other major currencies we follow are consolidating; sterling (1.3104), the euro (1.1681), the Australian dollar (0.7408), while the yen is weaker at 112.076. The fact that the other major currencies are consolidating is not surprising given this is a heavy week for central bank decisions with the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England setting policy this week, along with a barrage of other economic data being released.

The yuan remains on a back footing and was recently quoted at 6.8210. The other emerging market currencies we follow are also looking weaker this morning.

The economic agenda is very busy today. On top of data that has already been released, there is PMI data out across Europe and the US, as well as US ADP non-farm employment change, construction spending, crude oil inventories, total vehicle sales and the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) rate decision and statement.

The base metals prices have lifted off recent lows but for now seem in no hurry to extend rebounds given all the uncertainty over global trade. This may change if the data out over the rest of the week starts to show a pick-up in activity. Meanwhile for copper, prices could rally if Escondida workers vote for a strike.

In the precious metals, gold and silver prices holding in low ground, while the PGMs are following the lead of the base metals and have got some lift off of the lows, but also seem in no hurry to extend gains.

London Metal Exchange, base metals prices

Shanghai Futures Exchange, base metals prices

macroeconomic data

The post METALS MORNING VIEW 01/08: Metals prices retreat again after Chinese manufacturing PMI disappoints appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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Platinum Struggles As Gold Rout Grips Market



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Triumph Gold Corp: Drill Holes Keep Finding More Gold For Investors



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среда, 1 августа 2018 г.

Commodity Market Outlook: WTI Potential Bear Flag



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Gold Market Update: Long Term Bearish



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GLD Update…



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Gold Has Tough First Half In Tandem With Strengthening USD



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Cornerstone Metals – World Class Mining Investor Joins The Team



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Is Gold Now A Beach Ball Under Water?



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