среда, 31 января 2018 г.
Precious metal prices firmer this morning
The precious metals are firmer this morning with average gains of 0.5%, with gold prices at $1,343.02 per oz, this after a low of $1,334.50 per oz on Tuesday.
The pullback in the precious metals seems to be consolidation, like the base metals the price dips have attracted buying – this suggests metal-commodities remain in vogue.
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are for the most part firmer this morning, Wednesday January 31, the exceptions being aluminium (-0.3%) and lead that is little changed, while the rest of the complex is up by an average of 0.6% – ranged between tin (0.4%) and nickel (0.7%), with copper prices up by 0.5% at $7,117 per tonne.
Volume has been average with 8,535 lots traded as of 07.08 am London time.
On Tuesday morning the metals, equities and bond markets were all looking weak and the base metals complex closed down by an average of 1%, led by a 3.3% fall in nickel prices, but underlying tails on many of the metals’ candlestick charts showed there was dip buying around. Indeed copper closed off by just 0.1% at $7,080 per tonne, having been as low as $6,994 per tonne earlier in the day, and with prices up again this morning it does suggest underlying sentiment remains strong.
This is especially so considering China’s manufacturing purchasing manager’s index (PMI) came in at 51.3, below an expected reading of 51.5 and lower than the 51.6 recorded in December, which could have added to the downward pressure.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange today, base metals prices are down by an average of 0.7% – nickel prices lead on the downside with a 2.2% drop, with the others following: lead (-0.8%), aluminium (-0.7%), zinc (-0.4%), tin (-0.3%) and copper that is off the least with a fall of 0.1% to 53,220 yuan ($8,408) per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are down by 0.8% at 52,600-52,780 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio has dropped to 7.53, from 7.46 on Tuesday.
The fact that the spot price is showing a bigger drop than the futures, suggests the futures prices have rallied since the spot prices were set, while the drop in the arbitrage ratio, also shows SHFE copper prices are relatively weaker than LME prices and that may be due to the poor PMI data weighing on SHFE sentiment.
In other metals in China, iron ore prices are down by 1.4% at 510 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are down by 0.4%, while gold and silver prices are both off by 0.3%.
In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up by 0.31% at $68.26 per barrel, the yield on US 10-year treasuries has eased to 2.70%, and the German 10-year bund yield has also eased to 0.68%.
Equities in Asia are mixed today: Nikkei (-0.83%), Kospi (-0.05%), CSI 300 (0.47%), Hang Seng (0.45%) and ASX 200 (0.25%). This follows a weak performance in western markets on Tuesday, where in the United States the Dow Jones closed down by 1.37% at 26,076.89, and in Europe where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed down by 1% at 3,606.75.
The attempted rebound in the dollar index in recent days appears to be petering out with the index recently quoted at 88.83 – this after yesterday’s high of 89.65 and the low of 88.43 on January 25. The dollar’s weakness has boosted the other currencies: euro (1.2459), sterling (1.4205), Australian dollar (0.8099) and yen (108.61). The yuan has also resumed its powerful rally, it was recently quoted at 6.2865, the strongest it has been since August 2015.
On the economic agenda today is exceptionally busy – while China’s manufacturing PMI disappointed, the non-manufacturing PMI climbed to 55.3, from 55, Japanese housing starts and consumer confidence were weaker than expected, as were German retail sales. Data out later includes French, Spanish and EU consumer price indices (CPI), readings on German, Italian and EU unemployment, and US data including ADP non-farm employment change, employment costs, Chicago PMI, pending home sales and crude oil inventories. In addition, there is the US Federal Open Market Committee interest rate decision and statement.
High price levels and choppy trading go hand-in-hand and that is what we have been seeing of late. Yesterday’s weakness in the metals provided an opportunity for follow-through selling to emerge, but dip buying was seen instead. This suggests strong underlying sentiment. We remain bullish basis the fundamentals so expect good dip buying, but with the Chinese Lunar New Year some two weeks away, it will be interesting to see if buyers have the energy to push prices into new high ground.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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вторник, 30 января 2018 г.
Metals morning view: Precious metal prices down across the board
The precious metals are down across the board this morning with prices off an average of 0.6%, led by a 0.9% fall in platinum to $993.90 per oz, while gold prices are off by 0.4% at $1,335.02 per oz. This follows a day of weakness on Monday that saw prices close down by an average of 0.7%.
After strong runs to the upside, the precious metals prices are pulling back as profit-taking sets in. With stronger US treasury yields supporting the dollar, the precious metals may remain under pressure for a while, but if the correction in equities and bonds gathers momentum then gold may well start to attract safe-haven buying. We should now get a feeling for how strong underlying sentiment is by seeing how far prices pullback and how long the correction lasts. Overall, we think there is a broad-based move into commodities, so we expect dips to be short-lived.
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are weaker across the board by an average of 0.9% this morning, Tuesday January 30.
Nickel prices lead the way with a loss of 1.8%, with the rest of the complex trailing in their wake: tin (-1.1%) zinc (-0.9%), copper (-0.8%, at $7,035 per tonne), aluminium (-0.4%) and lead (-0.1%).
Volume has been strong with 12,588 lots traded as of 06.50 am London time. On Monday morning, we had strong gains and high volume, this morning we are seeing weak prices and high volume – in addition, most markets are looking weaker, with equities rattled by rising bond yields and with the dollar rebounding on the back of the higher yields too. This seems to be prompting a bout of risk-off.
On Monday, the base metals closed up by an average of 0.5%, but aluminium and lead gave back their earlier gains and ended the day lower, with copper prices also giving back their initial gains.
Weakness is also being seen on the Shanghai Futures Exchange today, where base metals prices are down an average of 0.8% – aluminium prices lead on the downside with a 1.7% drop, nickel prices are off by 1.3%, copper prices are down by 1% at 52,920 yuan ($8,357) per tonne, with lead prices off by 0.8%, zinc off by 0.2% and tin bucking the trend with a 0.1% gain. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are down by 0.4% at 53,050-53,200 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio has edged up to 7.53, from 7.50 on Monday.
In other metals in China, iron ore prices are down by 0.1% at 515.50 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are down by 0.8%, while gold and silver prices are off by 1% and 1.6% respectively.
In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are easier, off by 0.57% at $69.01 per barrel, the yield on US 10-year treasuries is strong at 2.72%, and the German 10-year bund yield has climbed to 0.69%.
Equities in Asia are weaker today: Nikkei (-1.43%), Kospi (-1.17%), CSI 300 (-1.07%), Hang Seng (-1.01%) and ASX 200 (-0.87%). This follows a weak performance in western markets on Monday, where in the United States the Dow Jones closed down by 0.67% at 26,439.48, and in Europe where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed down by 0.12% at 3,643.04.
The dollar index at 89.50 is seeing some follow-through buying after the recent weakness halted on January 25. It does appear as though the elastic band between the weakening dollar and strengthening US treasury yields became overstretched and higher yields are now pulling the dollar higher, which is what you would expect. The dollar strength is turning other currencies lower: euro (1.2356), sterling (1.4016), Australian dollar (0.8057), although the yen at 108.70 is managing to hold on to most of its recent gains. The yuan’s rally has also halted with the currency slightly weaker at 6.3346 and the other emerging currencies we follow are also giving back some of their recent gains in the face of the firmer dollar. All of which suggests a degree of risk-off is flowing through markets.
On the economic agenda today Bank of Japan’s consumer price index (CPI) reading climbed by 0.7%, compared with 0.5% previously, and French flash gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2017 came in at 0.6%, with the reading for the prior quarter revised up to 0.6% from 0.5%. Later there is data on German CPI, French consumer spending, Spanish and EU GDP, UK lending and money supply data, with US data including house prices and consumer confidence. In addition, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is speaking.
After general strength in the base metals with prices either pushing the envelope on the upside (nickel, zinc, lead and tin), or holding up well (copper and aluminium), the base metals prices are starting to correct. The correction seems broad based, with equities, bonds and precious metals all suffering – so we see this as risk-off hitting the markets and do not see it as base-metals specific. We would not be surprised to see the correction run for a while as we move into February and attention turns to the Chinese Lunar New Year. We should get a feel for how bullish underlying sentiment is by seeing how far the pullbacks run and how long they last. We remain bullish basis the fundamentals so expect good dip buying.
After strong runs to the upside, the precious metals prices are pulling back as profit-taking sets in. With stronger US treasury yields supporting the dollar, the precious metals may remain under pressure for a while, but if the correction in equities and bonds gathers momentum then gold may well start to attract safe-haven buying. We should now get a feeling for how strong underlying sentiment is by seeing how far prices pullback and how long the correction lasts. Overall, we think there is a broad-based move into commodities, so we expect dips to be short-lived.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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понедельник, 29 января 2018 г.
Precious metal prices are little changed this morning
The precious metals are little changed this morning with spot gold prices at $1,348.75 per oz, silver prices at $17.39 per oz, platinum at $1,010.80 per oz and palladium prices at $1,089.50 per oz. This follows losses in gold, silver and palladium averaging 0.3% on Friday, while silver prices edged up by 0.3%.
After strong runs to the upside, the precious metals prices are consolidating – the halt in the dollar’s slide is no doubt acting as a headwind and after such strong gains we would not be surprised to see some profit-taking. We should now get a feeling for how strong underlying sentiment is by seeing how far prices pullback and how long the rallies are put on hold. Overall, we think there is a broad-based move into commodities, so we expect dips to be short-lived.
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are stronger by an average of 1% this morning, Monday January 29.
Nickel and zinc prices lead the way with gains of around 2%, followed by lead prices that are up by 1% and copper prices ($7,147 per tonne) that are up by 0.8%, while aluminium and tin lag with gains of 0.2% and 0.1% respectively.
Volume has been strong with 13,382 lots traded as of 07.09 am London time. Strong gains and high volume bode well.
This follows a mixed performance on Friday, that saw strong gains in tin, aluminium, lead and zinc prices, while nickel prices were off by 0.6% and copper prices were down by 0.3% at $7,091 per tonne.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange today, base metals prices are for the most part significantly stronger, the exceptions are aluminium, where prices are down by 0.4% and copper where prices are up 0.2% at 53,640 yuan ($8,488) per tonne. The rest are up by an average of 1.7%, led by a 3.3% rise in zinc prices. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up by 0.2% at 53,230-53,430 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio has edged up to 7.50, from 7.49 on Friday.
In other metals in China, iron ore prices are down by 1.3% at 514.50 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are unchanged, while gold and silver prices are off by 0.5%.
In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are easier, off by 0.29% at $70.26 per barrel, the yield on US 10-year treasuries is strong at 2.68%, and the German 10-year bund yield has climbed to 0.63%.
Equities in Asia are mixed today: CSI 300 (-1.81%), Hang Seng (-0.58%) and Nikkei little changed, while the Kospi is up by 0.91% and the ASX 200 is up by 0.42%. This follows a strong performance in western markets on Friday, where in the United States the Dow Jones closed up by 0.85% at 26,616.71, which is a record high, and in Europe where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up by 0.48% at 3,647.41.
The dollar index at 89.24 has run into some buying, the recent low was 88.43 seen on January 25. Underlying tails on the candlesticks suggest dip-buying which is not surprising given treasury yields are on the rise. With the dollar’s slide halted, the strength in the other currencies has abated: euro (1.2397), sterling (1.4120), yen (109.02) and the Australian dollar (0.8082). The yuan’s rally is also consolidating, it was recently quoted at 6.3255, and most of the emerging currencies we follow are also consolidating recent gains.
On the economic agenda today there is data on German import prices, which rose 0.3%, which was as expected, but below the 0.8% seen previously. Later there is data on US personal income, personal spending and personal consumption expenditure consumer price index (CPI).
Zinc and nickel prices are rallying strongly and have pushed upward into fresh high ground, tin prices are close to challenging the November 2016 highs at $22,000 per tonne, lead and aluminium prices are poised just below recent highs and copper prices are firmer but seem to be facing more overhead resistance than the other base metals. Whether the halt in the dollar slide becomes a headwind for the metals remains to be seen, overall we remain bullish but expect trading to remain choppy at these high price levels.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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воскресенье, 28 января 2018 г.
пятница, 26 января 2018 г.
четверг, 25 января 2018 г.
среда, 24 января 2018 г.
вторник, 23 января 2018 г.
понедельник, 22 января 2018 г.
Metals start the week on a strong footing
The precious metals complex is mixed this morning with bullion prices down either side of 0.3% with gold prices at $1,330 per oz and silver prices at $17 per oz, while the platinum group metals are up either side of 0.6% with platinum prices up by 0.7% ($1,017 per oz) and palladium prices up by 0.5% ($1,113 per oz).
The precious metals prices are generally strong, but the prices are consolidating recent gains. We should get a feel for how strong underlying sentiment is by seeing how far prices slip during this consolidation.
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are for the most part stronger this morning, Monday January 22, with the complex up by an average of 0.2%.
Three-month copper prices ($7,096 per tonne) are up the most with a 0.7% gain, while nickel, zinc and lead prices are up by around 0.3% and aluminium and tin prices are little changed.
Volume has been average with 6,376 lots traded as of 6.59am London time.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange today, base metals prices are for the most part stronger with nickel prices leading the way with a gain of 1.8%, followed by tin prices that are up by 1.5%, zinc prices that are up by 0.7% and copper prices that are up by 0.2% at 53,840 yuan ($8,410) per tonne. Aluminium and lead prices are down by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up by 0.7% at 53,370-53,470 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio has firmed to 7.59, up from 7.53 on Friday.
In other metals in China, iron ore prices are up by 0.7% at 540.50 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up by 1.2%, while gold and silver prices are little changed.
Equities in Asia are mainly positive today: CSI 300 (1.19%), Nikkei (0.03%), (0.33%), Hang Seng (0.41%), while the Kospi and the ASX 200 are down by 0.72% and 0.23% respectively. This follows a strong performance in western markets on Friday, where in the United States the Dow Jones closed up by 0.21% at 26,071.72, and in Europe where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up by 0.78% at 3,649.07.
The dollar index at 90.54 is consolidating in low ground. The low in September was at 91.01 and last Wednesday’s low was at 90.11. So the 2017 downward trend is continuing into 2018. On the back of dollar weakness, the other currencies are strong but consolidating recent gains: euro (1.2236), sterling (1.3893), yen (110.79) and the Australian dollar (0.7995). The yuan has broken through resistance at 6.4345, it has been as high as 6.4149, the strongest it has been since December 2015. Most of the emerging currencies we follow are stronger too, which shows a degree of risk-on and confidence.
The economic agenda is light today – there is a Eurogroup meeting and German Bundesbank monthly report.
The base metals are for the most part looking buoyant, copper prices seem to be the ones struggling the most on the upside, with prices moving sideways either side of $7,100 per tonne, while the rest are working higher. With prices in high ground there is bound to be more selling around, especially when prices break into new high ground, but the fact prices are generally holding up well suggests underlying sentiment remains bullish.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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воскресенье, 21 января 2018 г.
пятница, 19 января 2018 г.
четверг, 18 января 2018 г.
GOLD TODAY: Consolidates near recent highs
Analysis
- Gold is consolidating after gains stalled at $1,344.65 per oz on Monday January 15.
- The stochastics have crossed lower while short-term momentum has stalled; the RSI at 62 has eased from an overbought 74 at the start of the week.
- Gold has filled the outstanding chart price around $1,340-43 per oz from September, which will clear the way for further gains.
- Support is now seen around $1,322 per oz, where resistance was seen in early January, and the 20 DMA has moved up to $1,312 per oz.
- Additional support is seen at $1,300 per oz and around $1,285 per oz from the 100, 55 and 40 DMAs.
- Resistance is seen at the 2017 high at $1,357 per oz ahead of the July-2016 high at $1,375 per oz.
Macro drivers
Net length among Comex speculators rose for a fourth straight week, increasing 40,020 contracts or 25% because a sizeable 47,733-contract build in gross longs was only partially offset by a 7,713-contract build in fund shorts.
ETF holdings have been stable so far in 2018, they total 2,122 tonnes after they increased 174 tonnes in 2017.
Rising real interest rates and equity market strength are boosting risk appetite, reducing the appeal of haven assets. The Bank of Canada raised its base interest rate by a quarter point to 1.25% on Wednesday January 18. But despite robust growth, Governor Stephen Poloz expressed concern about the negative ramifications for the economy if the US withdraws from the North American Free Trade Agreement.
Despite its heady ascent and recent mainstream launch on major exchanges, Bitcoin prices have been extremely volatile recently following reports the South Korean government could ban the cryptocurrency. Excess volatility and tax/compliance issues may deter some investors.
There could be additional delta-hedge related buying, there are currently sizeable call-option positions at various strikes between $1,350 and $1,400 per oz.
Recent data suggests the December price correction was well received by the physical market. Gold imports into India increased to an estimated 84 tonnes in December from 55 tonnes in November. Imports totaled 907 tonnes in 2017 as a whole, up 44% on 2016 volumes. Similarly imports into Turkey increased to 49.2 tonnes in December from 14 tonnes in November. They totaled 370 tonnes in 2017 versus 106.1 tonnes in 2016. Demand is expected to remain supported over the short term due to numerous auspicious days for marriage in the Hindu calendar and from purchases to mark Lunar New Year on February 16.
The latest trend reports from the World Gold Council, however, show global identifiable gold demand recorded its worst third-quarter since 2009 amid weak ETF demand and slowing jewelry demand in India due to tax and regulatory reforms. Identified global demand in the January-September period was down 12% on an annual basis.
Despite disruptions at the giant Grasberg mine in Indonesia and the impact of environmental inspections in China, global mine production has been in line with year-ago volumes. Production will remain supported in the current quarter, while several mine projects are due to enter production.
Conclusion
Gold is consolidating above $1,320 per oz while the dollar has made a modest rebound. An element of profit-taking is unsurprising given the scale of speculative buying in recent weeks. The absence of any significant ETF-related buying, however, suggests investors appear increasingly complacent in wider markets, which risk sharp corrections. As a result we maintain a positive outlook for gold, although a mix of consolidation/long-liquidation may be necessary before prices push higher.
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All trades or trading strategies mentioned in the report are hypothetical, for illustration only and do not constitute trading recommendations.
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среда, 17 января 2018 г.
вторник, 16 января 2018 г.
понедельник, 15 января 2018 г.
воскресенье, 14 января 2018 г.
пятница, 12 января 2018 г.
Platinum prices lead the advance today
Platinum prices are leading the advance in percentage terms in the precious metals this morning, with prices up by 1% ($992.10 per oz), followed by a 0.8% rise in silver ($17.12 per oz), a 0.7% rise in palladium ($1,090.40 per oz) and a 0.5% rise in gold prices ($1,328.95 per oz). A weaker dollar and general strength across oil and the base metals seems to point to a pick-up in interest in commodity baskets.
This follows gains on Thursday in platinum (1.3%), gold (0.4%), silver (0.1%), while palladium prices dipped by 0.4%.
Gold, silver and platinum prices have had strong rallies in recent weeks, prices paused more recently, in what now look like mini-continuation patterns from which platinum and gold prices have broken higher from, leaving silver prices still consolidating. Palladium prices are also consolidating off the highs. With precious, base and oil prices performing well, it may be that commodities are back in vogue again with investors.
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are generally higher this morning, Friday January 12, with prices fairly uniformly up between 0.5% and 0.6% – apart from tin prices that are down 0.1% at $20,159 per tonne. Three-month copper prices are up by 0.5% at $7,167 per tonne and zinc prices have been as high as $3,405 per tonne, which is a fresh multi-year high.
Volume has been average, with 7,271 lots traded as of 07.14am London time.
This follows a divergent performance on Thursday when the complex closed down with average losses of 0.2%, with zinc and tin prices up by 0.9% and 0.5% respectively, while copper, aluminium and lead prices were all down 0.2% and nickel prices dropped by 2%, albeit from fresh highs on Wednesday.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange today, base metals prices are for the most part lower, which is in contrast to the performance on the LME. The complex is off by an average of 0.6%, with losses of between 0.1% for tin and 0.8% for lead, with copper prices down by 0.6% at 54,750 yuan ($8,415) per tonne – the only one in positive territory is zinc, where prices are up by 0.6%. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are down by 0.7% at 54,280-54,380 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio has dropped to 7.65 up from 7.70 on Thursday.
In other metals in China, iron ore prices are down by 2.1% at 544 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are down by 1.6%, while gold and silver prices are firmer by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively.
In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices remain strong at $69.06 per barrel, the yield on US 10-year treasuries remains firm at 2.55%, and the German 10-year bund yield has jumped to 0.53%, from 0.46% at a similar time yesterday.
Equities in Asia are mainly positive today: ASX 200 (0.04%), Hang Seng (0.71%), CSI 300 (0.46%), Kospi (0.34%), while the Nikkei is off by 0.24%. This follows a mixed performance in western markets on Thursday, where in the United States the Dow Jones closed up 0.81% at 25,574.73, and in Europe where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed down by 0.40% at 3,595.24.
The dollar index has fallen again and was recently quoted at 91.71, it has been down to a low of 91.69, which has breached the recent low of 91.75 from January 2. This opens the way for a test of the September 2017 low at 91.01. On the back of dollar weakness the other currencies are stronger: euro (1.2074), sterling (1.3555), yen (111.32) and the Australian dollar (0.7879). The yuan has also strengthened, indeed it gapped higher to 6.4701 and most of the other emerging currencies we follow are stronger, other than the Mexican peso and South African rand that are consolidating recent strength.
Data out already today shows strong Chinese exports for December that grew by 10.9% in dollar terms compared with the same month of 2016, but imports were weaker than expected, they grew by 4.5% year on year, which was below the forecast 13%. Japan’s economic watchers sentiment dipped to 53.9, from 55.1 – later there is data on French consumer price index (CPI), Italian industrial production with US data including: CPI, retail sales, business inventories and economic optimism. Germany’s Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann is also speaking.
The New Year slide in base metals prices seems to have abated for now, with prices moving sideways to higher in a choppy fashion – which suggests the dips have attracted buying, but the buyers do not yet feel the need to chase prices higher. The weaker dollar may prompt some non-US based buying which could give prices a boost. China’s strong export data supports the view of concerted global growth, although weaker import data needs to be monitored carefully for any signs of China’s domestic growth slowing. For now, we remain quietly bullish for the base metals complex and see the longer-term outlook as being positive, and traders may well continue to front run that. We expect dips to remain well supported – as seems to have been the case in recent days.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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Gold prices rise after hawkish ECB, soft data sink dollar
The spot gold price rose during Asian morning trading on Friday January 12, after hawkish language contained in the European Central Bank’s (ECB) December meeting minutes and soft US data weighed on the dollar.
The spot gold price was quoted at $1,328.56-1,329.10 per oz as of 12.24pm Shanghai time, up by $6.45 from the previous session’s close. Trade has ranged from $1,322.85-1,329.15 so far today.
- The yellow metal benefited from a weaker dollar following hawkish ECB minutes and disappointing US data overnight.
- The dollar index was down by 0.5% at 91.81 as of 11:57am Shanghai time.
- Earlier in the session, the index had reached a low of 91.69 – its lowest since October 20 when it fell to 91.42.
- “Gold put in another strong showing after the hawkish ECB minutes weighed on USD sentiment,” Stephen Innes with Oanda said on Friday.
- “Indeed, the weaker dollar narrative amidst increased demand for equity market hedges suggests the near-term outlook for gold is glittering,” Innes added.
- “ECB minutes were interpreted on the hawkish side due to a discussion of a “gradual shift” in guidance from “early 2018” – much earlier than had previously been discussed,” ANZ Research said on Friday.
- Disappointing data from the United States added to the dollar’s woes.
- In US data on Thursday, the December producer price index fell 0.1%, against an expected increase of 0.2%, while unemployment claims rose to 261,000 this week, marking the fourth consecutive weekly increase and a more-than-three-month high.
- Later, the market will be keeping a close eye on the US consumer price index (CPI) and retail sales releases, which may have some bearing on the dollar.
Silver, PGMs
- In the other precious metals, the spot silver price rose $0.12 to $17.095-17.115 per oz. Platinum increased $8.5 to $988-993 per oz and palladium gained $6 to $1,088-1,093 per oz.
- On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, gold for June delivery was recently at 281.35 yuan ($43.24) per gram, and the June silver was at 3,886 yuan per kg.
Currency moves and data releases
- The dollar index was down by 0.05% to 91.81 as of 11.57am Shanghai time.
- In other commodities, the Brent crude oil spot price was up by 0.2% to $69.26 per barrel as of 11:10 am Shanghai time.
- In equities, the Shanghai Composite was up by 0.1% to 3428.65 as of 11:30 am Shanghai time.
- Data out already today showed China’s trade balance for December, in dollar-denominated terms, came in at a surplus of $54.7 billion, while the yuan-denominated balance stood at a surplus of 362 billion yuan, both surpassing expected and previous readings.
- Later, US CPI and retail sales releases are of note.
- In addition, German Federal Bank President Jens Weidmann is speaking.
- Looking ahead to the weekend, key Chinese data including new yuan loans and M2 money supply are expected.
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четверг, 11 января 2018 г.
METALS MORNING VIEW 11/01: Metals looking stronger again
The precious metals are consolidating, with palladium prices drifting lower from recent record highs, while the rest are holding up in relatively high ground after what have been extensive rallies that followed the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in December. Platinum prices are up by 0.4%, gold and silver prices are off by 0.1%, with the former at $1,317.92 per oz, while palladium prices are off by 0.2%.
This follows gains in gold, silver and platinum on Wednesday that averaged 0.6%, while palladium prices fell by 0.8%.
Gold, silver and platinum prices have had strong rallies in recent weeks and prices are now consolidating. A stronger dollar could lead to prices pulling back, but the rebounds since mid-December do suggest sentiment has turned more bullish again. With precious, base and oil prices performing well, it may be that commodities are back in vogue again with investors.
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are generally higher this morning, Thursday January 11, with aluminium leading the way with a 0.8% gain to $2,203 per tonne, while tin is the one bucking the trend with a 0.3% decline. Nickel prices are unchanged, while the rest are up by between 0.2% and 0.4%, with copper prices up by 0.3% at $7,169 per tonne.
Volume has been average, with 6,933 lots traded as of 07.03 am London time.
This follows a bullish day on Wednesday, where all the metals closed in positive territory with gains averaging 0.8%.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange today, base metals prices were for the most part firmer, led by a 1.1% rise in aluminium prices, while lead prices dipped by 0.5%, and the rest were up by between 0.2% for tin and 0.9% in nickel, with copper prices up by 0.5% at 55,170 yuan ($8,467) per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up by 0.2% at 54,620-54,770 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio has climbed to 7.70, up from 7.69 on Tuesday.
In other metals in China, iron ore prices are down by 0.4% at 556 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up by 0.2%, gold prices are stronger by 0.3% and silver prices are up by 0.2%.
In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are strong at $69.02 per barrel, the yield on US 10-year treasuries is on the move, it is up at 2.54%, and the German 10-year bund yield is firmer at 0.46%.
Equities in Asia are broadly weaker today: ASX 200 (-0.48%), Kospi (-0.47%), Nikkei (-0.33%), CSI 300 (-0.07%), while the Hang Seng is little changed (+0.02%). This follows weakness in western markets on Wednesday, where in the United States the Dow Jones closed little changed, off by 0.07% at 25,369.13 and in Europe where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed down by 0.36% at 3,609.83.
The dollar index is consolidating off its recent lows and was recently quoted at 92.52. The euro at 1.1933 is looking a bit top-heavy, as is sterling (1.3479), while the yen (111.85) is consolidating recent gains and the Australian dollar (0.7863) is looking stronger. The yuan at 6.5075 is giving back some of its recent strength, it having been at 6.4739 on Monday, while the other emerging currencies are consolidating after recent gains.
Data out already today shows a pick-up in Japanese leading indicators to 108.6%, from a previous reading of 106.5%. Later there is data out on Italian retail sales, UK credit conditions, EU industrial production, European Central Bank monetary policy meeting accounts, with US data including producer prices, initial jobless claims, economic optimism, natural gas storage and the federal budget balance. In addition, FOMC member William Dudley is speaking.
Base metals prices are starting to work higher after generally drifting since the start of the year, but overhead tails on daily candlesticks in recent days does suggest there is overhead selling around too. Nickel and tin have been the two metals that have held up the best this week, with nickel setting a fresh two-and-a-half-year high at $13,200 per tonne. Perhaps continued focus on cobalt scarcity and a pressing need to use more nickel and less cobalt in lithium-ion batteries, combined with a relatively low nickel price (compared with prices seen between 2006 and 2015) is seeing some long-term strategic/investment buying. We remain quietly bullish for the base metals complex and see the longer-term outlook as being positive, and traders may well continue to front run that. We expect dips to remain well supported – as seems to have been the case in recent days.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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Gold prices rise on dollar weakness; other precious metals higher
The spot gold price rose during Asian morning trading on Thursday January 11 after the dollar continued to drift lower following news that Chinese officials have recommended the country slow or halt its purchases of US bonds.
The spot gold price was quoted at $1,319.05-1,319.35 per oz as of 11.39am Shanghai time, up by $2.05 from the previous session’s close. Trade has ranged from $1,317.05-1,320.78 so far today.
- The yellow metal benefited from a softer dollar during early trade on Thursday.
- The dollar index was down by 0.06% at 92.28 as of 11:10am Shanghai time – this compares with its recent high of 92.64 reached on Tuesday.
- A review of China’s foreign exchange reserve holdings recommended slowing or halting purchases of US Treasuries, according to a Bloomberg report on Wednesday.
- “This initially steepened the US yield curve and kept the dollar on the defensive,” ANZ Research noted on Thursday.
- Key now for the currency will be the raft of important data releases later this week – including the US consumer price index and retail sales due on Friday – which investors will be eyeing for further direction in the dollar and conversely in the price of gold.
Silver, PGMs
- In the other precious metals, the spot silver price rose $0.03 to $16.995-17.035 per oz. Platinum increased $6 to $973-978 per oz and palladium gained $4 to $1,089-1,094 per oz.
- On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, gold for June delivery was recently at 281.20 yuan ($43.15) per gram, and the June silver was at 3,887 yuan per kg.
Currency moves and data releases
- The dollar index was down by 0.06% to 92.28 as of 11.10am Shanghai time.
- In other commodities, the Brent crude oil spot price was up by 0.1% to $63.52 per barrel as of 11.10am Shanghai time.
- In equities, the Shanghai Composite was down by 0.3% to 3,411.46 as of 11.00am Shanghai time.
- In data on Wednesday, UK manufacturing production rose by 0.4% in November, surpassing an expected 0.3% increase. US import prices disappointed with a 0.1% rise compared with expected growth of 0.4%, while crude oil inventories declined by 4.9 million barrels from the prior week.
- The economic agenda is fairly busy today with EU industrial production, the European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting accounts and a host of US data that includes producer prices, unemployment claims, IBD/TIPP economic optimism and the federal budget balance.
- In addition, US Federal Open Market Committee member William Dudley is speaking.
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среда, 10 января 2018 г.
вторник, 9 января 2018 г.
TD Securities’ Melek wins LBMA gold forecast
TD Securities’ Bart Melek has won LBMA’s annual precious metals forecast survey, the LBMA announced today.
Melek’s forecast for the average gold price in 2017 of $1,256, was just $1.15 below the actual average price.
In the other precious metals, Tom Kendall of ICBC Standard Bank came first in the silver forecast – he had predicted a 2017 average of $17.10, just 5 cents above the actual average.
Glyn Stevens (independent) took the prize for platinum with a forecast of $935 against an actual average of $948.49.
Finally, Metal Bulletin’s William Adams scooped the prize for his palladium forecast of $850, $18.96 below the actual price.
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Gold prices stage slight recovery, but firmer dollar caps gains
The spot gold price managed a slight bounce during Asian morning trading session on Tuesday January 9, but expectations of more US interest rate increases this year continue to underpin the dollar, capping any significant gains in the yellow metal.
The spot gold price was recently quoted at $1,318.90-1,319.35 per oz, up by $1.25 from the previous trading day’s close. Trade has ranged from $1,316.23-1,319.55 per oz so far today.
- Gold prices staged a minor recovery in the early session on Tuesday, with a slightly weaker dollar providing support.
- The dollar index was at 92.23 as of 10.15am Shanghai time, compared with a reading of 92.05 at roughly the same time on Monday.
- The index had reached as high as 92.4 on Monday, supported by rising expectations of a March interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
- Weakness in the Euro had also lent support to the dollar.
- “The euro gave back some ground as last week’s disappointing euro area inflation data weighed on short-term sentiment against the backdrop of rising expectations that the Fed will tighten again in March,” ANZ Research noted on Tuesday.
- “Gold prices edged a bit lower overnight after the US dollar took back some lost ground from the EUR, but as the USD mini-correction ran out of steam, gold prices quickly retraced earlier loses,” Stephen Innes with Oanda said on Tuesday.
- “Given the very tight current correlation between gold and USD coupled with relatively sparse news flow, bullion dealers will be keying on Fed speak to provide a catalyst for the dollar ahead of Friday’s key US CPI, but so far the Fed rhetoric as contributed few sparks,” Innes added.
Silver, PGMs
- In the other precious metals, the spot silver price was up by $0.035 at $17.110-17.130 per oz. Platinum declined by $1 to $962-968 per oz, while palladium was increased by $6 to $1102-1107 per oz.
- On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, gold for June delivery was recently at 280.55 yuan ($43.17) per gram, and the June silver was at 3,896 yuan per kg.
Currency moves and data releases
- The dollar index dipped by 0.1% to 92.23 as of 10.15am Shanghai time.
- The dollar is in recovery mode, supported by expectations of a March interest rate increase by the US Federal Reserve.
- In equities, the Shanghai Composite Index was up by 0.08% to 3412.24 as of 11.30 am Shanghai time.
- In other commodities, the Brent crude oil spot price edged $0.31 higher to $68.17 per barrel as of 11.50am Shanghai time and the Texas light sweet crude oil spot price declined by $0.01 to $62.19 per barrel.
- The economic agenda is light today with the European Union’s unemployment rate and US data that includes the NFIB small business index, JOLTS job openings and IBD/TIPP economic optimism of note.
- China’s consumer and producer price indices are also expected early on Wednesday morning.
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понедельник, 8 января 2018 г.
Weak dollar underpins gold price
The spot gold price rose during Asian morning trading on Monday January 8, underpinned by weakness in the dollar following a disappointing US jobs report at the end of last week.
The spot gold price was recently quoted at $1,320.25-1,320.60 per oz, up by $1.25 from the previous trading day’s close. Trade has ranged from $1,319.33-1,322.25 per oz so far today.
- Gold has been the beneficiary of a weaker dollar following a soft reading in the United States’ blockbuster jobs report on Friday.
- The December US non-farm payrolls number came in at 148,000, much lower than market expectation of 190,000.
- The headline unemployment rate stood at 4.1%, however, while average hourly earnings increased 0.3% from the previous month, and 2.5% year on year.
- “The dollar index is still weak due to the disappointing US December jobs report,” a macro-economic analyst based in Shanghai said.
- The dollar index was 0.03% higher at 92.05 as of 04:48am London time compared with the previous session’s close, edging away from the multi-month lows reached at the start of the month.
- The dollar index reached a low of 91.75 on January 2, which was its lowest since September 20 when it fell as low as 91.42.
- “Commodities generally had a positive session, helped by the softer USD, with decent gains across precious metals, energy, bulks and softs,” ANZ Research said on Monday.
- “The USD is likely to continue to set the broad tone in the upcoming session,” ANZ Research added.
Silver, PGMs
- In the other precious metals, the spot silver price was up by $0.030 at $17.195-17.230 per oz. Platinum rose by $4 to $968-973 per oz, while palladium was up by $9 to $1095-1100 per oz.
- On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, gold for June delivery was recently at 280.25 yuan ($43.18) per gram, and the June silver was at 3,896 yuan per kg.
Currency moves and data releases
- The dollar index was 0.03% higher at 92.05 as of 04:48am London time.
- In other commodities, the Brent crude oil spot price edged $0.03 higher to $67.73 per barrel and the Texas light sweet crude oil spot price rose by $0.10 to $61.59 per barrel.
- In equities, the Shanghai Composite Index was up by 0.33% to 3402.90 as of 03.29am London time.
- The economic agenda is light today with German factory orders, the United Kingdom’s Halifax house price index, the European Union’s Sentix investor confidence and monthly retail sales as well as US consumer credit.
- In addition, US Federal Open Market Committee members Raphael Bostic and John Williams are speaking.
- “It’s a quiet start to the week in terms of data releases and events. The offshore highlights are concentrated on Friday with China’s trade data [for December] along with US [consumer price index] and US retail sales all due for release on the last working day of the week,” National Australian Bank noted on Monday.
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воскресенье, 7 января 2018 г.
пятница, 5 января 2018 г.
Precious metal prices are consolidating in high ground
The precious metals are consolidating this morning, with spot gold off by 0.2% ($1,318.09 per oz) and silver off by 0.1% ($17.16 per oz), while platinum prices are up 0.3% and palladium prices are up 0.1%. This follows a strong performance on Thursday when the complex closed up by an average 0.9%, led by a 1.6% gain in palladium prices that at the day’s highs of $1,108 per oz, were $2 per oz away from matching the record highs seen in January 2001.
Gold, silver and platinum prices have had strong rallies in recent weeks so consolidation is in order. While the weaker dollar is a supporting factor, the surging equity markets may well be a headwind. That being said, perhaps nervousness about overbought equities is seeing a pick-up in safe-haven buying in case other markets correct. Palladium’s rally continues, backed by fundamentals. Prices have been as high as $1,108 per oz – the high in January 2001 was $1,110 per oz. The market is vulnerable to bouts of profit taking, but the bullish fundamental look set to remain in place.
Base metals prices trading on the London Metal Exchange are generally higher this morning, Friday January 5, with copper and aluminium both up by 0.1% at $7,193 per tonne and $2,248 per tonne, respectively, and the rest up by between 0.2% and 0.4%. The exception is nickel, which is down by 0.9% at $12,530 per tonne.
Volume has been average, with 6,133 lots traded as of 06:43am London time.
This follows a general day of price rebounds on Thursday. Although some metals, such as copper and tin, struggled to hold on to some of their gains, nickel, zinc and aluminium closed up 1.5%, 0.8% and 0.7% respectively.
The precious metals are consolidating this morning, with spot gold off by 0.2% ($1,318.09 per oz) and silver off by 0.1% ($17.16 per oz), while platinum prices are up 0.3% and palladium prices are up 0.1%. This follows a strong performance on Thursday when the complex closed up by an average 0.9%, led by a 1.6% gain in palladium prices that at the day’s highs of $1,108 per oz, were $2 per oz away from matching the record highs seen in January 2001.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange today, base metals prices are for the most part slightly firmer, led by a 0.4% gain in zinc prices, while copper prices are off 0.3% at 54,720 yuan ($8,432) per tonne, and the rest little changed. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 0.2% at 54,700-54,780 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio has eased to 7.61, down from 7.64 on Thursday.
In other metals in China, iron ore prices are down by 0.5% at 536.50 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are down by 1%, gold prices are up by 0.2% and silver prices are up by 0.1%.
In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are down 0.12% at $67.85 per barrel, the yield on US 10-year treasuries is at 2.45%, and the German 10-year bund yield is easier at 0.44%.
Equities are for the most part firmer, led by a 1.26% rebound in the Kospi and a 0.89% rally in the Nikkei. The ASX 200 is up by 0.74%, the Shanghai CSI 300 is up by 0.23%, while the Hang Seng is bucking the trend with a 0.09% decline. This follows a strong performance in western markets on Thursday, where in the United States the Dow Jones closed up by 0.61% at 25,075.13 and in Europe the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up by 1.68% at 3,568.88.
The dollar index, at 91.94, is consolidating just above Tuesday’s dip to 91.75. Having broken support at 92.50 on Friday December 29, it suggests the index is now going to test the September 2017 low of 91.01. That said, with commodity prices (metals and oil) on the rise, concerns about inflation may pick-up combined with likely interest rate rises means the dollar may not stay down for long. With the dollar consolidating, the currencies are looking mixed with the euro (1.2066), sterling (1.3558) and Australian dollar (0.7842) consolidating, while the yen (113.07) is weaker. The yuan at 6.4799 has gapped higher and the emerging currencies we follow are either continuing to strengthen (rupee and ringgit), or are consolidating recent gains (rupiah, real, rand and peso) – all of which suggest investors are putting on risk.
The economic calendar is busy today: the data already out shows a decline in UK shop prices, while German retail sales jumped 2.3%, having been expected to rise 1%. Data out later include French CPI, with EU data including retail PMI, CPI flash estimates, PPI and Italian CPI. In the US the focus is on the December jobs report, but in addition to that there are data on the trade balance, ISM non-manufacturing PMI and factory orders. In addition Federal Open Market Committee member Loretta Mester is speaking. With the dollar looking vulnerable, today’s US employment report is likely to be watched closely, as are CPI data out of Europe.
After weakness and consolidation in the base metals earlier in the week, we thought yesterday’s rebound may have been stronger, but there does seem to be some hesitation in the markets. But considering many of the metals’ prices moved into fresh multi-year high ground in recent weeks, we should not be too surprised to see scale up selling. We remain quietly bullish and see the longer-term outlook as being positive, and traders may well continue to front run that.
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четверг, 4 января 2018 г.
METALS MORNING VIEW 04/01: Buying returns after a start-of-year pause
Palladium prices remain buoyant in high ground at $1,088.10 per oz, while the other precious metals are slightly weaker with losses of between 0.1% for gold ($1,309.56 per oz) and 0.3% for silver ($17.04 per oz). This follows a mixed performance on Wednesday with gold, silver and palladium off between 0.6% and 1%, while platinum prices closed up 0.6% at $949 per oz.
In line with the base metals, gold’s and silver’s price rally paused yesterday but underlying tails suggest buying is returning. We said yesterday that we should get a feel for how bullish underlying sentiment is by seeing how far the pullbacks go – it looks like they have been limited. Palladium’s rally continues, backed by fundamentals – prices have been as high as $1,098.50 per oz, not far off the high in January 2001 of $1,110 per oz.
Base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange are for the most part little changed this morning, Thursday January 4, apart from nickel and copper prices that are up by 0.8% and 0.6%, with the latter at $7,220 per tonne.
Volume has picked up with 9,663 lots traded as of 07:01 am London time.
This follows a diverse performance on Wednesday that saw copper, aluminium, nickel and zinc close down an average of 1.1%, while lead and tin prices closed up by 0.7% and 0.55% respectively.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange today, the base metals complex is mixed – lead remains the main gainer with a +1% rise, followed by a 0.4% rise in copper prices to 55,180 yuan ($8,489) per tonne, with zinc and tin prices little changed and aluminium and nickel prices down by 0.2%. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are little changed at 54,540-54,690 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio stands at 7.64.
In other metals in China, iron ore prices are up by 0.5% at 543.50 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are down by 1%, gold prices are down by 0.5% and silver prices are down by 0.7%.
In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are 0.30% higher at $68.12 per barrel, the yield on US 10-year treasuries is at 2.46%, and the German 10-year bund yield is at 0.46%.
Equities are for the most part firmer, led by a 3.26% rebound in the Nikkei, it having been closed on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Shanghai CSI 300 is up by 0.42%, the ASX 200 is up by 0.11% and the Hang Seng up by 0.56%, while the Kospi is bucking the trend with 0.80% decline. This follows a positive performance in western markets on Wednesday, where in the United States the Dow Jones closed up by 0.40% at 24,922.68 and in Europe the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up by 0.56% at 3,509.88.
The dollar index, at 92.07, is consolidating after Tuesday’s dip to 91.75. Having broken support at 92.50 on Friday December 29, it suggests the index is now going to test the September 2017 low at 91.01. That said, with US treasury yields on the rise the dollar may not stay down for long. With the dollar consolidating, the currencies are looking mixed with the euro and yen consolidating at 1.2033 and 112.55 respectively, sterling slightly weaker at 1.3523 and the Australian dollar firmer at 0.7852(0.7817). The yuan at 6.4960 is looking stronger and renewed strength across the emerging currencies we follow suggests confidence with investors putting on risk.
The economic calendar is busy today – it contains services PMI data out across Asia, Europe and the US. Data already out shows Japan’s services PMI eased to 54 from 54.2 and China’s Caixin services PMI rising to 53.9 from 51.9. In addition to the PMI data out later, there is UK data on lending and M4 money supply, with US data also including Challenger job cuts, ADP non-farm employment change, initial jobless claims, natural gas storage and crude oil inventories. Also late yesterday US total vehicle sales data was released that showed sales of 17.9 million units, which was higher than the 17.5 million units in November.
After weakness and consolidation in the base metals in recent days, some signs of strength are emerging and with oil prices moving higher, emerging market currencies strengthening and equities strong, it does look as though risk-on is returning. As we said in yesterday’s Metals Morning View report, with the longer-term outlook positive the bull run may continue after this bout of consolidation, as traders anticipate stronger fundamentals down the road. We remain quietly bullish.
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Gold prices fall on strong US data, FOMC minutes
Gold prices were down in the Asian morning trading session on Thursday January 4 on strong US economic data and the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes overnight.
The spot gold price was recently quoted at $1,307.20/1,307.55 per oz, down $3.55 from the previous trading day’s close. Trade has ranged from $1,305.20 to $1,311.20 per oz so far today.
Minutes from the FOMC December meeting showed that its members expected United States GDP to grow 2.5% due to tax cut reforms, up from an earlier estimate of 2.1%.
“Most participants indicated that prospective changes in federal tax policy were a factor that led them to boost their projections of real GDP growth over the next couple of years,” the minutes stated.
However, the committee at the meeting voted to increase its benchmark interest rate a quarter point to 1.25% to 1.5%.
On data, US ISM manufacturing index for December rose to 59.7 from 58.20 in November.
Dollar index on Thursday morning down 0.03 to 92.19.
“The recent upside largely reflects a weaker dollar, which may surprise, given the passing of the tax reform bill and the mid-December interest rate increase by the Fed. However, both events had been largely priced in, while for 2018, the consensus is that the Fed will maintain a relatively dovish stance,” Metal Focus said in a note.
” Finally, improving economic growth outside the US, for example in Europe, has also contributed to the dollar losing ground (especially towards end-2017) on a trade-weighted basis,”, it added.
“Other key questions for gold in 2018 will be how quickly developed economies can normalise interest rates after more than a decade of monetary largesse, how much further can global equity market rallies extend, what will be the longer term impact of the Trump tax reforms on corporates and on US government debt levels and when will inflation finally start to pick up,” said Mitsuibishi Corporation International said in its weekly precious metals report.
“Add to this the myriad risks and uncertainties in the world economy, holding gold as a defensive play in 2018 may make more sense for investors,” it said.
Silver and PGMS mixed
- In the other precious metals, the spot silver price was down $0.080 at $17.000 to $17.020 per oz. Platinum was down $2 to $944/949 per oz while palladium was up $5.5 to $1084/1089 per oz.
- On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, gold for June delivery was recently at 276.15 yuan ($42.49) per gram, and the June silver was at 3,915 yuan per kilogram
Currency moves and data releases
- In other commodities, the Brent crude oil spot price was down $0.02 at to $67.89 per barrel and the Texas light sweet crude oil spot price was up $0.04 at $61.84 per barrel.
- In equities, the Shanghai Composite Index was up 0.41% to 3382.9.
- In data, major economies including Britain, Spain, Italy, French and Germany are set to release final service PMI numbers for December; in the US unemployment claims, final service PMI and crude oil storage are key numbers to watch.
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среда, 3 января 2018 г.
вторник, 2 января 2018 г.
Metals prices consolidate after strong year-end
Precious metals are stronger this morning, with the complex showing an average gain of 0.8%. Palladium continued to lead the advance with a 1.1% gain to $1,073 per oz, while spot gold prices are up 0.5% at $1,309.30 per oz. Gold, silver and platinum prices are being supported by a weaker dollar and an uptick in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
While palladium’s rally continues, backed by fundamentals, the other precious metals are rebounding in what looks like a broad-based rally in metal commodities and the weaker dollar is helping in that respect too.
Base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange are for the most part consolidating this morning, Tuesday January 2, with lead the exception where prices are up 0.6% at $2,514 per tonne.
The rest are little changed with copper prices at $7,254 per tonne, but trading volume has been high at 11,821 lots as of 7.30am London time.
This comes after an overall positive close to the year on Friday December 29, with most of the metals finishing 2017 at or close to the year’s highs – the exceptions being lead and tin.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange today, the base metals complex is mixed with nickel (+2.4%), tin (+1.0%) and aluminium (+0.9%) the gainers and lead (-0.9%), copper (-0.6%) and aluminium (-0.2%) the losers. February copper was recently quoted at 55,260 yuan ($8,509.79) per tonne and spot copper prices in Changjiang are down 1.0% at 54,650-54,750 yuan per tonne. The LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio stands at 7.61.
In other metals in China, iron ore prices are up by 2.5% at 543.50 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up 0.2%, gold prices are up 0.5% and silver prices are up 0.4%.
In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices remain strong at $67.14 per barrel – up 0.80%, the yield on US 10-year treasuries is at 2.42% and the German 10-year bund yield is higher at 0.45%.
Equities are for the most part firmer today with the Hang Seng up 1.87%, the Shanghai CSI 300 up 1.4%, the Kospi is up 0.49% while the ASX 200 is off 0.06%. The Nikkei is closed.
The dollar index, at 92.05, broke below support at 92.50 on Friday December 29, which suggests the index is now going to test the September 2017 low at 91.01. A breach of that would signal that the 2017 downward trend is set to continue. The weaker dollar reflects a slump in Treasury yields and weaker demand for dollar funding globally. This is supportive of risk assets, including equities and commodities. While the dollar is weaker, most of the currencies are stronger: euro (1.2034), sterling (1.3540), the Australian dollar (0.7832), although the yen is consolidating (112.59). The yuan at 6.4970 is strengthening again – the September high was 6.4345.
The economic calendar is busy today mainly with manufacturing PMI data. Data already out shows a rebound in the Caixin manufacturing PMI to 51.5, from 50.8, which bodes well for the global economy, but it is in Europe where PMI numbers either side of 60 are showing real strength.
Base metals look well placed to advance further as concerted global growth underpins broad based demand. There is a danger that prices run ahead of the fundamentals, but with the longer-term outlook bullish the bull run may continue as traders anticipate stronger fundamentals down the road.
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Gold prices up on weaker dollar
Gold prices were up in the Tuesday morning Asia trading session as the dollar weakened further.
The spot gold price was recently quoted at $1,306.35.50/1,306.65 per oz, up $3.7 from the previous trading day’s close. Trade has ranged from $1,304.25 to $1,307.50 per oz so far today.
The US dollar index on Tuesday morning was down 0.08 to 92.22.
“As global complacency over the trajectory of US rates continues to be astoundingly low, precious metals in general should continue to benefit. Anti-pollution measures in China squeezing the prices of industrial metals heavily will also continue to provide an indirect boost,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA.
“Gold has opened positively in Asia, touching $1,308.00 initially before correcting to a still respectable $1,306.35. Gold has now traced out at double top at $1,308.00 and this should be reasonably strong resistance intra-day. A break will open the road to the mid-September highs of $1,314.50. Support is at $1,302.00 and $1,300.00 followed by $1,294.00, Friday’s low”, Halley added.
Silver and PGMS rise
- In the other precious metals, the spot silver price was up $0.075 at $16.970 to $16.990 per oz. Platinum was up $3 to $929/934 per oz while palladium up $6 to $1064/1069 per oz.
- On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, gold for June delivery was recently at 279.10 yuan ($42.86) per gram, and the June silver was at 3,893 yuan per kilogram
Currency moves and data releases
- In other commodities, the Brent crude oil spot price was up $0.48 at to $67.97 per barrel and the Texas light sweet crude oil spot price was down $0.50 at $60.59 per barrel.
- In equities, the Shanghai Composite index wasup 1.08% to 3342.98.
- In data, major economies including Spain, Italy, French, Britain, United States and Canada are all expected to release manufacturing PMI numbers; Japan is closed for a bank holiday today.
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