воскресенье, 31 декабря 2017 г.
пятница, 29 декабря 2017 г.
четверг, 28 декабря 2017 г.
среда, 27 декабря 2017 г.
вторник, 26 декабря 2017 г.
понедельник, 25 декабря 2017 г.
воскресенье, 24 декабря 2017 г.
пятница, 22 декабря 2017 г.
Precious metals are firmer this morning, with gold, silver platinum and palladium prices up
Precious metals are firmer this morning, with gold prices up by 0.1% at $1,267.77 per oz. Silver, platinum and palladium are up by 0.3%, 0.4% and 0.5% respectively. This follows a mixed performance on Thursday where gold prices were little changed. Silver and platinum prices were down by 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively, and palladium prices were up by 0.9% at $1,036 per oz.
The precious metals’ rebounds are looking robust and with the base metals looking strong too, it looks as though there is across-the-board interest in getting into metals. This despite low geopolitical tensions and rising bond yields, which could be a headwind for gold.
Base metals prices trading on the London Metal Exchange are generally consolidating on the morning of Friday December 22, with tin, copper, aluminium and nickel prices weaker by between 0.1% and 0.6%, three-month copper prices at $7,069 per tonne and lead and zinc prices up 0.2%.
Trading volumes have been high, with 9,225 lots traded as of 07.58 am London time. This comes after a generally strong performance on Thursday that saw average gains of 0.4%. Lead, once again, was the only metal closing down on the day, dropping 0.8% to $2,504.50 per tonne, while the rest were up an average of 0.6%.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange today, base metals prices are mixed with aluminium and tin prices off by 0.4%, nickel prices unchanged, while copper and lead prices are up by 0.4%, with copper at 54,500 yuan ($8,287) per tonne and zinc prices are up by 0.2%. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up by 0.1% at 53,800-54,050 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is weaker at 7.71.
In other metals in China, iron ore prices are up by 1.5% at 543 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up by 2.6%, while gold prices are up by 0.12% and silver prices are off by 0.2%.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up by 0.18% at $64.74 per barrel, the yield on US 10-year treasuries remains strong at 2.49%, as is the German 10-year bund yield at 0.41%.
Equities in Asia today are mixed, with the CSI 300 down by 0.33%, while the rest are firmer: Hang Seng (0.53%), Kospi (0.44%), Nikkei (0.16%) and ASX 200 (0.15%).
This followed a stronger performance in western markets on Thursday, where in the United States the Dow Jones closed up by 0.23% at 24,782.29 and in Europe the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up by 0.51% at 3,570.78.
The dollar index at 93.39 this morning is little changed with prices consolidating in mid-ground. We wait to see how the market interprets the US tax bill, which is potentially a negative for the dollar as it initially increases the budget deficit before the benefits are felt. But countering that, the US may be seen a stronger place politically now president Donald Trump has won his first major policy victory. The euro at 1.1852 is also consolidating but on a front-footing, the Australian dollar is stronger at 0.7714, while the yen at 113.39 is weaker and sterling at 1.3364 is consolidating.
The yuan at 6.5715 is consolidating recent strength, having reached 6.5536 yesterday. In the other emerging currencies we follow the rand is consolidating recent gains and the peso is weaker, the latter probably as Trump’s policy success on the Tax bill may energize him to pursue other ‘promised’ policies.
Economic data already out shows a slight pick-up in German GfK consumer climate to 10.8, from 10.7 previously, German import prices climb by 0.8% from 0.6%, while French consumer spending climbed by 2.2% after a 2.1% decline previously. Data out from the UK includes: the current account, GDP, index of services, revised business investment, with US data including: durable goods orders, PCE prices, personal income and spending, new home sales and revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.
The rallies in the base metals prices continue with underlying tails on candlesticks suggesting dip buying interest. Lead prices have been the ones struggling the most, but some buying seems to be emerging now. It looks as though the rallies are being driven by fresh buying, which suggests that the underlying bullish fundamentals are re-exerting themselves.
We remain quietly bullish and continue to expect range-trading in high ground; it looks as though the base metals could put in a strong finish to 2017 .
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Gold price drops in quiet trading
The spot gold price marched lower during Asian morning trading hours on Friday December 22 in thin trading ahead of the Christmas holiday.
The spot gold price was quoted at $1,265.75-1,266.1 per oz as of 11.42 Shanghai time, down $1 on yesterday’s close. Trade has ranged from $1,266.15 to $1,268.4 so far.
- Before its retreat this morning, the gold price had maintained a slow but steady ascent, climbing to as high as 1269.25 overnight, due to an exhausted buying appetite on equity markets.
- “[The gold price was] stronger … after stronger equity markets driven by the passage of the US tax cut plan sapped investor appetite,” ANZ Research said.
- But the yellow metal lost strength this morning due to muted trading ahead of the Christmas holiday.
- “As we head into the holiday season, we would expect trading to be muted,” analyst from OANDA said.
- Meanwhile, a slight pick-up in the US dollar also added to the pressure to the yellow metal price.
- After dipping to 93.22 early this morning, the US dollar index managed to move up to as high as 93.55 at 8.15am Shanghai time.
Silver up, PGMs mixed
- In the other precious metals, the spot silver price rose $0.01 to $16.135/16.155 per oz. Platinum lost $1 to $909/914 per oz and palladium was up $3 at $1,036/1,041 per oz.
- On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, gold for June delivery was recently at 274.75 yuan ($41.76) per gram, and the June silver was at 3,794 yuan per kilogram.
Currency moves and data releases
- The dollar index was up by 0.01% at 93.39 as of 11.42am Shanghai time.
- In other commodities, the Brent crude oil spot price rose 0.11% to $64.69 per barrel while the Texas light sweet crude oil spot price inched down 0.05% to $58.13 per barrel.
- In equities, the Shanghai Composite was up 0.09% to 3,302.88.
- In US data out on Thursday, final third-quarter GDP came in at 3.2%, while unemployment claims stood at 245,000. The Philly Fed manufacturing index was above estimates at 26.2. Lastly, the House Price Index (HPI) October number exceeded expectations with a 0.5% reading.
- In EU data, the December consumer confidence flash number came in line with forecasts at 0.5.
- The economic data calendar is still busy for the last working day prior to Christmas, with US personal income and spending, new home sales, durable goods orders, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, as well as UK GDP growth numbers all due out later today.
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четверг, 21 декабря 2017 г.
The precious metals’ rebounds are consolidating today
Precious metals are little changed this morning, with gold prices off by 0.1% at $1,265.71 per oz. Silver prices are unchanged, platinum prices are up by 0.1% and palladium prices up by 0.2%. This follows firmer price action on Wednesday, when the precious metals complex closed up 0.4%.
The precious metals’ rebounds are consolidating today – we saw the November weakness as the market again anticipating the December US interest-rate rise, as it did ahead of the rate rises in December 2015 and 2016. With geopolitical tensions low and with bond yields on the rise, gold prices are likely to face headwinds, but with US equities looking stretched, perhaps the recent weakness in gold prices has attracted a pick-up in interest in the yellow metal as an insurance against a correction in equities.
Base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange are consolidating this morning, Thursday December 21, with prices down an average of 0.1% and copper off by 0.3% at $7,027 per tonne.
Trading volumes have been average, with 6,986 lots traded as of 06.58 am London time. This comes after a generally strong performance on Wednesday that saw average gains of 0.7%. Lead was the only metal closing down on the day, it dropped 1.2% to $2,525 per tonne
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange today, base metals prices are generally firmer, with copper up by 1.2% at 54,280 yuan ($8,257) per tonne and nickel up 1.1%, while aluminium, zinc and tin prices are up by between 0.1% and 0.2%. Again, lead is bucking the trend with a 0.8% fall. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 0.9% at 53,800-53,940 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is little changed at 7.72.
In other metals in China, iron ore prices are up by 0.9% at 532 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up by 1.5%, while gold prices are down by 0.2% and silver prices are unchanged.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up by 0.26% at $64.63 per barrel, the yield on US 10-year treasuries is stronger at 2.49%, while the German 10-year bund yield is also higher at 0.41%.
Equities in Asia today are mixed today, with the Kospi down by 1.72%, the Nikkei off by 0.11% and the ASX 200 down by 0.25%, while the Hang Seng is up by 0.51% and the CSI 300 is up by 0.93%.
This followed a weaker performance in western markets on Wednesday, where in the United States the Dow Jones closed down by 0.11% at 24,726.65 and in Europe the Euro Stoxx 50 closed down by 0.83% at 3,552.65. We are still waiting to see if the passing of the US tax bill prompts a ‘buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact’ set-up, especially as there could also be profit-taking ahead of year-end given such a strong performance so far this year.
The dollar index at 93.38 this morning also seems to be struggling – perhaps the US tax bill is a negative for the dollar as it initially increases the budget deficit before the benefits are felt. But countering that, the US may be seen a stronger place politically now president Donald Trump has won his first major policy victory. The jury is still out as to whether the index is in an up trend or is in a continuation pattern within this year’s downward trend. 92.50 remains our ‘line in the sand’. The euro at 1.1866 is firmer, the Australian dollar is consolidating in high ground at 0.7661, while the yen is at 113.53, and sterling is at 1.3352.
The yuan is strengthening again and at 6.5735 is testing resistance that lies between 6.5675 and 6.5715. Indeed, earlier in the day it reached 6.5536. Other emerging currencies we follow are generally firmer, or are consolidating, the exception is the peso that may be wary of Trump’s policy success.
Economic data already out shows Japan has kept it monetary policy unchanged, while data out later includes the UK public sector borrowing requirement, with US final GDP, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, initial jobless claims, final GDP prices, house prices, leading indicators and natural gas storage. There is also EU data on consumer confidence.
Base metals prices are rallying and seem to have shaken-off their bout of profit-taking/long liquidation that dominated in November. Lead prices suffered the least when the other metals were selling-off, so we should not be that surprised that they are not joining in to the same extent into the rebound. Without the nearby spreads tightening, it looks as though the rallies are being driven by fresh buying, which suggests that the underlying bullish fundamentals are re-exerting themselves.
We remain quietly bullish and continue to expect range-trading in high ground; it looks as though the base metals could put in a strong finish to 2017 in spite of low trading volumes.
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Gold price rises on weaker dollar
The spot gold price inched higher during Asian morning trading hours on Thursday December 21 after the US dollar index fell to its lowest level since early December.
The spot gold price was quoted at $1,267.6-1,267.9 per oz as of 11.09 Shanghai time, up $1.5 on yesterday’s close. Trade has ranged from $1,266.15 to $1,268.4 so far.
- The gold price rose on a weaker US dollar. The US dollar index fell to 93.151 overnight, hitting its lowest level since December 5.
- Weaker equity markets also helped to redirect investors’ focus back to the yellow metal.
- The US tax reform was approved by Congress yesterday. However, “US equity markets failed to cheer as recent gains had preempted this outcome”, noted Credit Suisse.
- Overnight, US equities finished broadly lower with the Dow dropping 28.10 points to 24,726.65, the S&P 500 falling 2.22 points to 2,679.25 and the Nasdaq moved 2.89 points lower to 6,960.961.
- “Gold prices inched higher as investor appetite waned. ETF holdings in the SPDR fund fell for the second day to its lowest level in three months,” ANZ Research said.
Both silver and PGMs stronger
- In the other precious metals, the spot silver price rose $0.047 to $16.195/16.230 per oz. Platinum gained $3 to $917/922 per oz and palladium was up $1 at $1,025/1,030 per oz.
- On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, gold for June delivery was recently at 274.85 yuan ($41.75) per gram, and the June silver was at 3,803 yuan per kilogram.
Currency moves and data releases
- The dollar index was up by 0.03% at 93.34 as of 11.09am Shanghai time.
- In other commodities, the Brent crude oil spot price dipped 0.03% to $64.44 per barrel while the Texas light sweet crude oil spot price inched up 0.03% to $58.04.
- In data on Wednesday, China’s CB Leading Index in November gained 1.8%, above the previous mark of 1.3%. In the United States, existing homes sales topped estimates with a 5.81 million reading.
- Today comes with a heavy US economic data schedule, including the latest GDP revision, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index numbers, as well as the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices.
- In addition, EU flash consumer confidence numbers are due out later today.
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среда, 20 декабря 2017 г.
Precious metals are marginally stronger
Precious metals are marginally stronger, with the complex showing an average gain of 0.2%, with gold prices up by 0.2% at $1,263.88 per oz, while the platinum group metals are both up by 0.3%. The exceptions are silver prices that are off by 0.1%. This follows a quiet day for bullion prices on Tuesday that closed little changed, while the PGMs closed up by 0.3%.
Precious metals are rebounding – we saw the November weakness as the market again anticipating the December US interest-rate rise, as it did ahead of the rate rises in December 2015 and 2016. With US equities looking stretched, perhaps the recent weakness in gold prices has attracted a pick-up in interest in the yellow metal as an insurance against a correction in equities.
Base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange are for the most part firmer early on the morning of Wednesday December 20.
The exception is aluminium where prices are off by 0.3% – the rest are up between 0.3% and 0.6%, with three-month copper prices up by 0.3% at $6,955 per tonne.
Trading volumes have been average, with 6,820 lots traded as of 07.36am London time. This follows a generally bullish day on Tuesday, when the complex closed up 0.3% on average, although nickel prices closed off by 0.4%.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange today, the base metals complex is firmer – prices are up an average of 0.5%, led by a 1.4% gain in aluminium prices. Lead is up 0.2%, zinc is up 0.5%, while copper prices are up by 0.3% at 53,720 yuan ($8,148) per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 0.1% at 53,300-53,440 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is weak at 7.72, down from 7.76 on Tuesday.
Equities in Asia today are mixed but little changed with the Nikkei up by 0.10% and the ASX 200 up by 0.06%. The the Hang Seng is down by 0.08%, the CSI 300 is off by 0.12% and the Kospi is down by 0.25%.
This followed a weaker performance in western markets on Tuesday, where in the United States the Dow Jones closed down 0.15% at 24,754.75 and in Europe the Euro Stoxx 50 closed down by 0.75% at 3,582.22. The S&P 500 index is at a record level above its 200 day moving average (DMA) – is this a ‘buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact’ situation ahead of the Tax bill?
The dollar index at 93.50 this morning continues to consolidate above its 20 DMA – the jury is still out as to whether the index is in an up trend or is in a continuation pattern within this year’s downward trend. 92.50 remains our ‘line in the sand’. The euro at 1.1835 is also consolidating, albeit on a front foot, as is the Australian dollar at 0.7666. The yen at 113.12 is weaker and sterling at 1.3381 is consolidating in mid-ground.
The yuan has strengthened, and at 6.5836 is testing resistance that lies between 6.5675 and 6.5715. Other emerging currencies we follow are diverse with the rand stronger at 12.7141 following ANC election results and the rupee also higher at 64.04. But the peso is weaker and looking vulnerable, the rupiah is also on a back footing, while the ringgit is consolidating.
Economic data already out shows Japan’s all industries industrial activity for October climbed 0.3% – it was expected to rise 0.4%, but is up from a 0.5% decline in September. German PPI for November edged up 0.1% after a 0.3% rise in October.
Data out later include EU current account, UK CBI realized sales, China leading indicators, US existing home sales and crude oil inventories. In addition, Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann and Bank of England governor Mark Carney are speaking.
The base metals prices are looking bullish again. With the exception of those of lead, the nearby spreads are not looking particularly tight. We are seeing fresh buying, which suggests that the underlying bullish fundamentals are re-exerting themselves after the profit-taking from October to early December.
We remain quietly bullish and continue to expect range-trading in high ground; it looks as though the base metals could put in a strong finish to 2017 in spite of low trading volumes.
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Gold price boosted by weaker US dollar, awaits US tax reform plans
The gold price rose during Asian morning trading on Wednesday December 20 as the US dollar weakened while the market awaits further developments on tax reform plans in the United States.
The spot gold price was quoted at $1,264.10-1,264.40 per oz, up by $2.55 as of 10:09am Shanghai time. Trade has ranged from $1,261.50-1,264.50 so far today.
- Stronger-than-expected housing data in the US and stronger equity markets had weighed on investor appetite for safe-haven assets like gold, resulting in a lackluster performance for the yellow metal in recent weeks, ANZ Research said on Wednesday.
- The US dollar has weakened as the market awaits the passing of the US tax reform bill. The bill has since been passed by the House of Representatives, and now heads to the Senate for passing, which market observers expect could happen within today.
- “A weaker US dollar continues to be supportive of the current upside momentum [for gold]…With the US tax bill is almost certain to pass, investors are likely to stay on a risk-on mode into year end,” Commerzbank said late on Tuesday.
Silver, PGMs
- In the other precious metals, the spot silver price was up by $0.035 to $16.15-16.17 per oz. Platinum increased $3 to $912-917 per oz, and palladium rose $3 to $1,023-$1,028 per oz.
- On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, gold for June delivery was recently at 275.40 yuan ($41.61) per gram, and the June silver contract was at 3,804 yuan per kg.
Currency moves and data releases
- The dollar index was down by 0.08% at 93.43 as of 10.04am Shanghai time.
- In other commodities, the Brent crude oil spot price was up 0.03% to $63.87 per barrel as of 10:09am Shanghai time.
- In equities, the Shanghai Composite was down 0.04% to 3,295.27.
- In US data from Tuesday, building permits came in at 1.30 million, above the forecast of 1.27 million. Housing starts also came in at 1.30 million, while the current account balance stood at -$101 billion – both were higher than expectations.
- Key economic data due later today include the CB leading index for China, and existing home sales and crude oil inventories from the US.
- The market will also look to news coming from China’s Central Economic Work Conference, which kicked off on Monday. Conclusions from the closed meetings will provide insights into the country’s economic agenda for next year.
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вторник, 19 декабря 2017 г.
понедельник, 18 декабря 2017 г.
воскресенье, 17 декабря 2017 г.
суббота, 16 декабря 2017 г.
пятница, 15 декабря 2017 г.
четверг, 14 декабря 2017 г.
среда, 13 декабря 2017 г.
вторник, 12 декабря 2017 г.
понедельник, 11 декабря 2017 г.
Gold price little changed amid firm dollar
The spot gold price was little changed during Asian morning trading on Monday December 11 amid a firm dollar.
The spot gold price was recently quoted at $1248.25-1248.65 per oz, up by $0.20 as of 11.49am Shanghai time. Trade has ranged from $1247.05-1249.15 so far today.
- The dollar held steady during early Asian trade on Monday with expectations of higher US interest rates and healthy data from the United States underpinning the currency.
- The dollar index was down by 0.02% at 93.84 as of 12.00pm Shanghai time – it had reached as high as 94.09 on Friday, which was its highest since November 22.
- In US data on Friday, positive employment growth hit 86 straight months with non-farm employment change results showing 228,000 Americans joined the labor market, above the forecast of 198,000. But the unemployment rate stayed flat at 4.1% and average hourly earnings disappointed with a 0.2% gain.
- “The jobs report showed that hiring increased more than expected in November, while the unemployment rate held at a 17-year low. Expectations for a rate hike at this week’s FOMC (US Federal Open Market Committee) meeting weighed on investor appetite for gold,” ANZ Research said on Monday.
- “With the US dollar generally in the ascendant, and with an almost guaranteed rate hike from the FOMC this week, gold will likely find few friends in today’s trading session,” Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at Oanda said.
- “Gold is unchanged this morning unsurprisingly as attention in Asia is drawn to cryptocurrencies as opposed to the real world. We have resistance at $1,253.00 [per oz] and then the long-term breakout at $1,260.00. On a more positive note, gold has traced out a double bottom at $1,243.30 which will offer interim support. After that, the technicals show nothing but clear air until near the $1,200.00 area,” Halley added.
Silver, PGMs
- In the other precious metals, the spot silver price was up by $0.005 to $15.830-15.850 per oz.
- Platinum was up by $6 to $888-893 per oz, and palladium increased $4 to $1,006-$1,011 per oz.
- On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, gold for June delivery was recently at 272.30 yuan ($41.1) per gram and the June silver was at 3,742 yuan per kg.
Currency moves and data releases
- The dollar index was down by 0.02% at 93.84 as of 12.00pm Shanghai time.
- In other commodities, the Brent crude oil spot price was down by 0.42% to $63.05 per barrel, and the Texas light sweet crude oil spot price decreased by 0.42% to $57.03.
- In equities, the Shanghai Composite was up by 0.41% to 3,303.40.
- Chinese data released overnight on Friday showed the country’s consumer inflation slowed more than expected in November with a gain of 1.7%, compared with an expected increase of 1.8%. Meanwhile, Chinese producer prices rose 5.8% from a year earlier, compared with the previous month’s rise of 6.9%, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.
- The economic agenda is very light today with only Jolts job openings from the US of note.
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Quiet start to the week across the metals
Precious metals are firmer this morning with gold prices up by 0.1% at $1,249.90 per oz, silver prices are stronger by 0.2%, palladium prices are up by 0.4%, while platinum prices have rallied 0.9%.
The precious metals sold off heavily last week, we think traders have been anticipating a likely interest rate rise at the US Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday. In addition, with equities booming and geopolitical tensions low, the opportunity cost of holding gold has been high, which has not helped. The current climate is not that bullish for gold so prices may remain under pressure for a while.
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are for the most part weaker this morning, Monday December 11, with prices down by an average of 0.3% – led by a 0.8% drop in nickel prices while copper prices are down by 0.4% at $6,554 per tonne. Volume has been average with 8,070 lots traded as of 06.47 am London time.
This was after a generally firmer day on Friday, when copper, zinc and lead closed up between 0.3% and 0.5%, aluminium and tin prices were little changed and nickel prices fell by 0.5%.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange today, the base metals prices are mixed with lead, nickel and tin off between 0.5% and 0.6%, while zinc prices are up by 1.1%, aluminium prices are little changed and copper prices are up by 0.2% at 51,640 yuan ($7,804) per tonne.
Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up by 0.4% at 51,360-51,720 yuan per tonne and the LME vs Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio has firmed to 7.88, from 7.83 on Friday.
In other metals in China, iron ore prices are off by 0.1% at 497.50 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up by 2.1%, while gold prices are off by 0.1% and silver prices are up by 0.5%.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up by 0.02% at $63.33 per barrel, the yield on US 10-year treasuries are little changed at 2.38% and the German 10-year bund yield is weaker at 0.30%.
Equities in Asia this morning are firmer with gains seen across the board: Nikkei (0.56%), the Hang Seng (0.95%), the CSI 300 (1.531%), the ASX200 (0.07%) and the Kospi (0.30%). This follows strength in western markets on Friday where in the United States the Dow Jones closed up by 0.49% at 24,329.16 and in Europe where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up by 0.51% at 3,591.45.
The dollar index at 93.76 is consolidating, the latest rebound ran up to 94.09 on Friday, but the index has since dipped. The halt in the dollar’s rise has led to some firmness in the euro at 1.1786, sterling at 1.3423 and the Australian dollar at 0.7532, while the yen remains weak at 113.43.
The yuan remains flat at 6.6144, while the other emerging currencies we follow are consolidating.
Today’s economic agenda is light: Japan’s preliminary machine tool orders were up by 46.9% year on year and later there is data on Italian retail sales and US job openings. Data out over the weekend showed China’s consumer price index climbed by 1.7% in November, after a 1.9% rise in October and producer prices climbed by 5.8%, which was as expected, but down from a 6.9% rise in October.
The base metals prices remain vulnerable to further falls; prices are consolidating for now, but the rebounds are not seeing much follow-through buying. So for now the path of least resistance seems to be to the downside.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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воскресенье, 10 декабря 2017 г.
пятница, 8 декабря 2017 г.
четверг, 7 декабря 2017 г.
Precious metals suffering with gold breaking below support
Precious metals are generally weaker this morning with gold and silver prices off by 0.5%, with gold prices at $1,257.73 per oz, while platinum prices were off by 0.2% and palladium prices are up by 0.1%. This follows a mixed performance on Wednesday that saw losses in platinum (-1.4%), silver (-0.9%), gold (-0.2%), while palladium rebounded 0.9%.
Precious metals are suffering with gold breaking below support at $1,260 per oz to follow silver and platinum prices lower, but for now palladium prices are holding up relatively well. With most of the metals prices in retreat, with the dollar firmer and geopolitical tensions low, the path of least resistance remains to the downside. That said, with the US Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week and with the market expecting an interest rate rise, the weakness we are seeing in gold may well be the market anticipating the rate rise.
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are for the most part weaker again this morning, Thursday December 7, although tin prices are bucking the trend with a 0.2% gain. The rest are down by an average of 0.5%, ranged between copper that is off by 0.1% at $6,541 per tonne and lead prices that are down by 1.2%.
Volume has been above average with 10,212 lots traded as of 07.05am London time.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange today, the base metals prices are divergent with aluminium leading on the downside with a 1.7% fall, nickel prices are off by 0.9%, copper and zinc prices are both down by 0.5%, while lead and tin prices are up by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. February copper prices are at 51,340 yuan ($7,759) per tonne, while spot copper prices in Changjiang are down by 0.1% at 51,300-51,500 yuan per tonne and the LME vs Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio has strengthened to 7.85, from 7.81 on Wednesday.
The steel market is also weaker with iron ore prices in China falling by 7.5% to 494.50 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are off by 2.1%, with gold and silver prices down by 0.7% and 1.4% respectively.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up by 0.7% at $61.23 per barrel, this after the weakness seen on Wednesday. The yield on US 10-year treasuries is unchanged at 2.34% and the German 10-year bund yield has firmed to 0.31%.
Equities in Asia this morning are mixed: some of the markets have rebounded after Wednesday’s weakness, with gains seen in the Nikkei (1.45%), the Hang Seng (0.33%) and the ASX200 (0.54%), while the Kospi (-0.50%) and the CSI 300 (-1.11%) are weaker. This follows weakness in western markets on Wednesday where in the United States the Dow Jones closed down by 0.16% at 24,140.91 and in Europe where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed down by 0.25% at 3,561.57.
The dollar index, at 93.65 is getting some lift with the index back above the 20 day moving average. The euro at 1.1793 is weaker, as are sterling at 1.3373, the yen at 112.58 and the Australian dollar at 0.7535.
The yuan remains flat at 6.6148, while the other emerging currencies we follow are giving back some of their recent gains.
Today’s economic agenda shows Japan’s leading indicators were slightly weaker at 106.1%, down from 106.4% and German industrial production has fallen by 1.4% after a 0.9% fall previously. Data out later includes the French trade balance, UK house prices, Italian unemployment rates, EU revised gross domestic product (GDP), with US data including challenger job cuts, initial jobless claims, natural gas storage and consumer credit. In addition, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi is speaking.
Most of the base metals prices are correcting, led by aluminium and nickel, while tin and lead prices are holding up and copper and zinc prices have broken lower – but for now are seeing some support. The market therefore remains vulnerable. We do see this more as a technical/profit-taking correction rather than one that is warning of a meaningful economic slowdown. The market, however, seems concerned about slower growth in China and while that view is held then prices may well fall further, but we would view this as leading to a better buying opportunity.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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Gold price little changed, continues to be pressured by firmer dollar
The spot gold price was flat to weaker during Asian morning trading on Thursday December 7, with a persistent risk-on tone in the market and a firmer dollar keeping the yellow metal under pressure.
The spot gold price was quoted at $1,263.60-1,263.90 per oz as of 11.22am Shanghai time, down by $0.10 from the previous session’s close. Trade has ranged from $1,262.10-1,264.15 so far.
- “Investors continued to shun gold as they look to stronger equity markets amid the new tax plan in the [United States],” ANZ Research said.
- The Nasdaq advanced 14.16 points overnight, though the Dow Jones fell 39.73 points.
- Meanwhile, a firmer dollar ahead of the upcoming US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, at which members are widely expected to raise US interest rates, is also pressuring the yellow metal.
- The dollar index was up by 0.04% to 93.56 as of 11.22am Shanghai time. On Wednesday, the index had reached a high of 93.65 – its highest since November 23.
- “Gold hovered near weekly lows… as the USD index bounced up firmer as tensions increased in the aftermath of US President Trump declaring Jerusalem as Israel’s capital,” Commerzbank said.
- “The market is also cautious leading into this month’s FOMC meeting, where the Fed is expected to raise rates once again,” ANZ Research said.
- “While it is still too soon to suggest a significant sell-off is on the cards, the charts do imply that gold may well be about to break out of its three-month trading range,” Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at Oanda, said on Thursday.
Silver, PGMs
- In the other precious metals, the spot silver price dropped by $0.007 to $15.955-16.100 per oz. Platinum gained $1 to $899-904 per oz and palladium was up by $4 at $996-1,001 per oz.
- On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, gold for June delivery was recently at 275.4 yuan ($41.64) per gram, and the June silver was at 3,777 yuan per kg.
Currency moves and data releases
- The dollar index was up by 0.04% as of 11.22am Shanghai time.
- In other commodities, the Brent crude oil spot price rose by 0.28% to $61.36 per barrel as of 10.16am Shanghai time, while the Texas light sweet crude oil spot price inched up by 0.04% at $56.08.
- In equities, the Shanghai Composite was down by 0.51% to 3,277.03.
- In data on Wednesday, the US ADP employment report showed 190,000 Americans joined the labor market in November. The revised non-farm productivity and unit labor costs during the third quarter grew 3% and fell 0.2% respectively.
- The economic agenda is fairly light today with the UK’s Halifax house price index and unemployment claims from the United States of note.
- In addition, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi is speaking.
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среда, 6 декабря 2017 г.
вторник, 5 декабря 2017 г.
PRICING NOTICE: Amendment of gold premium assessments
Metal Bulletin has today amended the frequency and the number of locations of its gold premiums assessments.
After a consultation period, Metal Bulletin has reduced the number of locations to three – Shanghai, Mumbai and Istanbul – from the nine that were previously assessed.
Assessments of gold premiums in Bangkok, Dubai, Hong Kong, Singapore, Tokyo and Zurich are discontinued from today due to low liquidity in these locations.
From today, gold premiums will be assessed on a monthly basis, on the first Tuesday of every month.
All historical data relating to the gold premiums assessments prior to the amendment will remain available in the pricing section of the FastMarkets website.
To provide feedback on gold premiums assessments or if you would like to provide price information by becoming a data submitter to gold premiums assessments, please contact Ewa Manthey by email at pricing@metalbulletin.com. Please add the subject heading FAO: Ewa Manthey re: gold premium assessments.
To see all Metal Bulletin’s pricing methodology and specification documents, please go to http://ift.tt/2kn1acC.
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Gold price range-bound on lack of fresh catalyst
The spot gold price was range-bound during Asian trading hours on Tuesday December 5 amid a lack of fresh market catalyst.
The spot gold price was quoted at $1,275.30-1,275.60 per oz as of 03.58am London time, down by $1.05 from Monday’s close. Trade has ranged from $1,274.85-1,277.05 so far today.
- “The fundamental environment for gold and silver is weak in the short term. The gold price should stay under pressure this week should there be a lack of political factors to boost it. But in the medium and long term, the gold price could rebound after the impact of a US rate hike in December is digested by the market,” China’s Ruida Futures said late on Thursday.
- The US Federal Open Market Committee will meet on December 12-13 to decide on its monetary policy, with market participants expecting an increase in US interest rates at the meeting.
- The upside for the yellow metal was capped after the dollar rose and equities market cheered in response to the US Senate passing its tax reform bill on Sunday. A House-Senate conference committee will now work to resolve the differences between the House and Senate tax bills.
Silver, PGMs
- In the other precious metals, the spot silver price rose by $0.005 to $16.32-16.36 per oz. Platinum was unchanged at $925-930 per oz and palladium was up by $5 at $998-1,003 per oz.
- On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, gold for June delivery was recently at 277.65 yuan ($41.94) per gram, and the June silver contract was at 3,847 yuan per kg.
Currency moves and data releases
- The dollar index fell 0.02% to 93.07 as of 03.59am London time.
- In other commodities, the Brent crude oil spot price rose by 0.11% to $62.50 per barrel as of 04.02am London time.
- In equities, the Shanghai Composite was up by 0.06% to 3,311.60.
- In Chinese data on Tuesday, the Caixin services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for November came in at 51.9, higher than expectations of 51.5 and up from 51.2 in October.
- “New business expanded at a rapid pace while input costs and prices charged continued to rise… The Caixin PMI readings in November showed the economy has maintained stability and there was no imminent risk of a significant decline in its growth rate,” Zhengsheng Zhong, director of macroeconomic analysis at CEBM Group, said.
- In data from Monday, UK construction PMI for November came in at 53.1, above forecast of 51.2. US factory orders fell 0.1% in October – compared to growth of 1.7% in the previous month – but beat the forecast of a 0.3% decline.
- A string of services PMI data from across Europe and the United States, as well as ISM non-manufacturing PMI and PBD/TIPP economic optimism from the US.
- The US non-farm employment report due Friday will also be closely watched by investors.
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понедельник, 4 декабря 2017 г.
Gold prices looking weak due to strong equity markets and minimal geopolitical concerns
Gold, silver and platinum prices are down by an average of 0.4% this morning, with gold prices at $1,274.40 per oz, while palladium prices buck the trend with a 0.3% gain and it appears that prices are now getting comfortable above the $1,000-per-oz level. On Friday, palladium prices climbed by 0.9%, gold prices were up by 0.4%, while silver and platinum prices were off by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively.
Gold, silver and platinum prices are looking weak – the strong equity markets and minimal geopolitical concerns over North Korea, seem to be weighing on the precious metals prices, although palladium continues to buck the trend on the back of strong fundamentals.
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are split into two camps this morning, Monday December 4. Gains are being seen in nickel (1.1%), tin (0.5%) and copper, which is up by 0.6% at $6,857 per tonne, while the rest are in negative territory: zinc (-0.8%), aluminium (-0.4%) and lead (-0.2%).
Volume has been average with 7,406 lots traded as of 06.47 am London time.
This follows a generally bullish performance on Friday – the exception was tin where prices dropped 1%, while the rest were significantly stronger with average gains of 1.8%.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange today, aluminium prices are down by 0.3%, while the rest are firmer with average gains of 1.6%. Lead is the outperformer with a gain of 2.6%, while copper prices are up by 1.2% at 53,510 yuan ($8,085) per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up by 1.2% at 53,340-53,470 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio is at 7.80, compared with 7.81 on Friday.
Last week, noting the strength in iron ore and steel rebar prices in China, we thought the easier tone in base metals would be short-lived and that seems to have turned out to be the case and with the steel complex prices up further, this bodes well for metals prices in general. Iron ore prices in China today are up by a hefty 5.1% at 549.50 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up by 2.3%, while gold and silver prices are off by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are down by 0.32% at $63.41 per barrel. The yield on US ten-year treasuries are slightly weaker at 2.40% and the German ten-year bund yield has also eased to 0.33%.
Equities in Asia this morning are mixed: the Nikkei is down by 0.49%, the ASX 200 is weaker by 0.07%, while the Kospi is up by 1.06%, the Hang Seng is stronger by 0.59% and the CSI is up by 0.43%. This follows weakness in western markets on Friday where in the United States the Dow Jones closed down by 0.17% at 24,231.59 and in Europe where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed down by 0.56% at 3,527.55. Premarket European and US markets are firmer following the US Senate’s passing of the tax reform legislation.
The dollar index avoided breaking below 92.50 on Friday – our line in the sand – with a low of 92.60. It has since rebounded to 93.31 on the back of the progress made on the tax reform legislation. With the dollar stronger, the euro at 1.1845 has turned lower, as have sterling at 1.3426 and the yen at 113.00, while the Australian dollar at 0.7587 is little changed.
The yuan at 6.6197 is also weaker, while the other emerging currencies we follow are mixed, with the peso, rupiah and rand weaker, while rupee and ringgit are firmer, especially the latter.
Today’s economic agenda shows Japan’s consumer confidence edged higher to 44.9, from 44.50, data out later includes Spanish unemployment change, EU Sentix investor confidence, UK construction purchasing managers’ index (PMI), EU producer price index (PPI) and US factory orders. There is also a Eurogroup meeting.
We viewed the recent weakness in most of the base metals as being consolidation as profit-taking took hold ahead of November’s month end, the exception has been nickel, which we are less bullish on. Friday saw some price rebounds and so far this morning is looking mixed. However, strong equity markets may well boost investor confidence, especially as generally good PMI data out last week looked constructive. Overall we remain quietly bullish for most of the metals and expect range trading, so would not be surprised to see metals prices rebound further off recent lows.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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Gold price lower as dollar recovers
The spot gold price fell during Asian trading hours on Monday December 4, coming under pressure from a recovery in the dollar after the US Senate passed its tax reform bill.
The spot gold price was quoted at $1,274.40-1,274.70 per oz as of 04.21am London time, down by $5.65 from last Friday’s close. Trade has ranged from $1,273.95-1,275.95 so far today.
- The dollar rose after the US Senate passed its tax reform bill on Sunday. A House-Senate conference committee will now work to resolve the differences between the House and Senate tax bills.
- “With both bills calling for a reduction in the corporate tax rate to 20%, US tax reform progress is expected to help sustain growth in corporate capital investments and [merger and acquisition] activities,” Credit Suisse said on Monday.
- “The rapid progress and intent on completing the exercise in the [next] two weeks whilst avoiding a government shutdown have had traders scrambling to reassess the [US Federal Reserve’s] interest rate trajectory for 2018. With potentially higher yields, precious metals prices have continued to suffer,” Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at Oanda, said.
Silver, PGMs
- In the other precious metals, the spot silver price dipped by $0.015 to $16.37-16.39 per oz. Platinum slipped $1 to $934-939 per oz while palladium was up by $4 at $1,020-1,025 per oz.
- On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, gold for June delivery was recently at 277.25 yuan ($41.89) per gram, and the June silver contract was at 3,849 yuan per kg.
Currency moves and data releases
- The dollar index rose by 0.28% to 93.12 as of 04:23am London time. The index had dipped as low as 92.6 last Friday, the lowest since November 27.
- In other commodities, the Brent crude oil spot price fell by 0.49% to $63.30 per barrel at 04:24 London time.
- In equities, the Shanghai Composite was up by 0.12% to 3,321.65.
- In US data from last Friday, final manufacturing PMI for November came in marginally higher at 53.9 from an expected rollover of 53.8. The ISM manufacturing PMI for November was at 58.2, slightly below forecast of 58.4. October construction spending rose 1.4%, higher than expectations of a 0.5% increase. November ISM manufacturing prices disappointed at 65.5 – a reading of 67 was called for.
- Data due later today includes US factory orders, UK construction PMI, and European Sentix investor confidence and producer price index.
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воскресенье, 3 декабря 2017 г.
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Gold price ticks up on softer dollar
The spot gold price ticked up during Asian trading hours on Friday December 1 on the back of a weak dollar.
The spot gold price was quoted at $1,275.4-1,275.7 per oz as of 11.54am Shanghai time, up $0.60 on yesterday’s close. Trade has ranged from $1,274-1,276.85 so far.
- The dollar index was strong overnight, climbing to 93.51 on the back of the news that US Senator John McCain will support the Senate tax bill and the increasing likelihood of an interest rate increase in December.
- The rise in the US currency put pressure on the price of the yellow metal ahead of the start of the Asian trading day.
- “The relatively strong Q3 GDP in the US dented investor demand; compounded by comments from Janet Yellen that it was a brightening picture for the US economy, while downplaying the risk of financial instability,” ANZ Research noted.
- “Excellent US consumption and preliminary GDP data saw the US 10-year bond yield rise to 2.435% overnight, while the passage of the US tax bill making progress through the Senate saw shares spike again. All of this torpedoed gold below the waterline as traders headed to the exit door for better returns elsewhere,” an analyst at Oanda said.
- However, the gold price moved marginally higher following a softening in the dollar index in early Asian trading. The dollar index was at 92.96 on Friday as of 11:54 Shanghai time, down by 0.08% from yesterday’s close.
- “Having closed below its 200-day moving average at 1286.00 on Wednesday, gold tried and failed to test it yesterday before crashing. This is the crucial pivot point that must be regained for bullish traders [to] breathe a little easier,” the analyst at Oanda said.
Silver, PGMs
- In the other precious metals, the spot silver price dipped $0.003 to $16.425-16.450 per oz. Platinum gained $3 to $939-944 per oz and palladium was up $4 at $1,011-1,016 per oz.
- On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, gold for June delivery was recently at 277.80 yuan ($42.02) per gram, and the June silver contract was at 3,863 yuan per kg.
Currency moves and data releases
- The dollar index was at 92.96 on Friday as of 11:54 Shanghai time, down by 0.08% from yesterday’s close.
- In other commodities, the Brent crude oil spot price rose by 0.46% to $62.93 per barrel while the Texas light sweet crude oil spot price gained by 0.38% to $57.57.
- In data released on Thursday, figures out of Europe were mixed: the Eurozone’s November consumer price index (CPI) flash came in at 1.5% versus an expected 1.6% while the core reading missed at 0.9% – 1.0% had been called for. However, the EU’s unemployment rate for October beat expectations with a reading of 8.8% against both a previous and expected reading of 8.9%.
- US data on Thursday was broadly positive with monthly personal spending and income exceeding expectations with prints of 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. The Chicago purchasing managers’ index (PMI) surprised to the upside with a reading of 63.9, versus an expected print of 62.2. The core PCE index was in line with expectations at 0.2%.
- Data out already today showed China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI surprising to the downside with a print of 50.8 versus an expected 51.2.
- Later we have a host of manufacturing PMI data out from across Europe, the United Kingdom and the United States. Other US data expected later today includes monthly construction spending, ISM manufacturing prices and total vehicle sales.
- In addition, US Federal Open Market Committee members Robert Kaplan and Patrick Harker are speaking.
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