четверг, 30 ноября 2017 г.

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Gold: Nov 30 Long Term Analysis



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Gold Breakout To Upside



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Chart Of The Day: Is Nickel Hammering Out A Bottom?



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Metals Morning View: Metals under pressure despite good Chinese PMI data

Gold and silver prices are little changed this morning at $1,283.70 per oz and $16.55 per oz respectively, although they fell 0.8% and 1.8% on Wednesday, which was surprising given North Korea’s missile test. The platinum group metals are up either side of 0.5% this morning, but they too were weaker on Wednesday, falling by an average of 0.8%.

Gold prices pulled back from the top of their range on Wednesday, the fact they did despite the pick-up in geopolitical tension is surprising. Platinum and palladium prices consolidated in line with gold’s performance, but selling in silver pushed prices below support, making the metal look particularly weak. Given the nervousness in tech stocks, the pick-up in geopolitical tension and wild gyrations in bitcoin, we would not be surprised to see some haven buying return to gold.

Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are split this morning, Thursday November 30, with copper, aluminium and lead prices up between 0.2% and 0.4%, with copper at $6,760 per tonne, while the rest are weaker with nickel, zinc and tin prices down by 1%, 0.5% and 0.4% respectively.

Volume has been strong with 12,675 lots traded as of 06.46am London time.

This follows a mixed performance on Wednesday that saw aluminium prices drop by 2.2%, copper prices weaken by 0.8% and zinc prices slip by 0.1%, while nickel prices were up by 0.4%, lead prices strengthened by 0.3% and tin prices were little changed.

On the Shanghai Futures Exchange today, the base metals are generally weaker, down by an average of 0.7%. Zinc and lead prices are little changed, while the rest are weaker, ranged from a 1.9% fall in aluminium to a 0.5% drop in nickel. Copper prices are off by 1% at 52,670 yuan ($7,993) per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are down by 0.9% at 52,440-52,740 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio is firmer at 7.79, compared with 7.78 on Wednesday.

In other metals in China, iron ore prices are up by 3.3% to 522 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are also up by 3.3%, gold prices are down by 0.7% and silver prices are off by 2.1%. Given the strength in iron ore and steel rebar, combined with the stronger purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data, we are surprised the base metals are under so much pressure.

Equities in Asia this morning are generally weaker, the exception is the Nikkei that is up by 0.57%, while the rest are lower: Kospi (-1.45%), the Hang Seng (-1.51%), the CSI 300 (-1.34%) and the ASX 200 (-0.69%). Some of the weakness is on the back of a sell-off in some US technology companies that saw the Nasdaq fall 1.27%, while the Kospi is down following an interest rate rise. While the Nasdaq may have been under pressure on Wednesday, the Dow Jones closed up by 0.44% at 23,940.68. Meanwhile in Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up by 0.18% at 3,589.91.

The dollar index at 93.17 is getting some lift as it looks as though some progress is being made on US tax reform, which is probably also why the Dow managed to ignore the weakness in the Nasdaq. The euro at 1.1870 is consolidating, the yen at 112.20, is weaker, which is probably why the Nikkei is also bucking the trend in Asian equities this morning, and the Australian dollar at 0.7583 is little changed. The sterling is strong at 1.3462 on the back of Tuesday’s breakthrough offer on the Brexit bill.

The yuan at 6.6100 is slightly weaker but it seems to be consolidating, while the other emerging currencies we follow are consolidating having been strengthening of late.

Today’s economic agenda is extremely busy – China’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI beat expectations, while Japan’s housing starts fell more than expected. Data out later includes: German retail sales, German, Italian and European Union unemployment data, French, Italian and EU consumer price index (CPI), US initial jobless claims, personal income, spending, PCE prices and Chicago PMI. In addition, US Federal Open Market Committee members Randal Quarles and Robert Kaplan are speaking.

Base metals prices are on a back footing, most metals are holding above support levels, suggesting consolidation, but aluminium and nickel prices have broken below support levels so are showing more weakness. We wait to see if strength in China’s steel sector, combined with better than expected Chinese PMI data is enough to instil confidence. For now we would let theses pullback run their course, but would be on the lookout for bargain hunting.

Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.

The post Metals Morning View: Metals under pressure despite good Chinese PMI data appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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Gold price inches higher as dollar retreats

Following a weaker session overnight, the spot gold price was marginally higher during Asian morning trading on Thursday November 30, underpinned by weakness in the dollar.

The spot gold price was up by $0.70 at $1,284.40-1,284.70 per oz as of 11.33am Shanghai time. Trade has ranged from $1,283.05-1,285.33 per oz so far in the day.

  • Gold prices moved up slightly in early trading on Thursday, benefitting primarily from a weakened dollar.
  • The dollar index was down by 0.12% at 93.16 as of 11.33am Shanghai time.
  • On Wednesday, comments from US Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen that economic growth was broad based saw investors become more convinced that rates would go higher, according to ANZ Research.
  • This was further backed up by the release of strong US data on Wednesday – see below.
  • In response, the dollar pushed to a one-week high of 93.44 late on Wednesday.
  • “This saw investor demand for gold weaken” ANZ Research added.
  • Indeed, spot gold prices fell to $1,281.75 per oz on Wednesday, the lowest since November 23.
  • However, simmering geopolitical tensions have lent support to the yellow metal after reports that North Korea had fired a missile earlier in the week.
  • “The gold price has been up and down due to a battle between the positive outlook on a US interest rate hike and concerns over North Korea firing a missile again,” Citic Futures Research said.

Silver, PGMs 

  • In the other precious metals, the spot silver price rose $0.04 to $16.570-16.600 per oz. Platinum gained $8 at $943-948 per oz and palladium was up by $4 at $1018-1,023 per oz.
  • On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, gold for June delivery was recently at 279.70 yuan ($42.34) per gram, and the June silver was at 3,899 yuan per kg.

Currency moves and data releases 

  • The US dollar index was down by 0.12% at 93.16 as of 11:33 Shanghai time.
  • In other commodities, the Brent crude oil spot price rose 0.03% to $62.63 per barrel while the Texas light sweet crude oil spot price was flat at $57.34.
  • In equities, the Shanghai Composite Index was down 0.27% to 3,328.88.
  • In Chinese data, China’s November manufacturing (purchasing managers’ index) PMI came at 51.8, beating both the forecast of 51.4 and the previous figure of 51.6. Non-manufacturing PMI was also higher in November, at 54.8.
  • US data was positive overnight. Third-quarter gross domestic product was revised upward to 3.3% from 3.0%, and home sales were also better, coming in at -0.6% year on year compared with a previous reading of -3.9%.
  • In EU data, economic confidence rose as expected to 114.6, German consumer prices rose 0.3% month on month as forecast and was up 1.8% year-on-year, beating both the previous reading and the forecast.
  • Numbers out later today include the EU unemployment rate and US personal income and spending.
  • In addition, US Federal Open Market Committee members Robert Kaplan and Randal Quarles will give speeches today.

The post Gold price inches higher as dollar retreats appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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Gold Breaking Bearish Flag Support



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среда, 29 ноября 2017 г.

Gold prices little changed on missile test

Gold prices are edging higher, we would have expected a bigger reaction to the latest missile test-fire as that is likely to spark more of a concerted reaction against North Korea. As such, we expect gold prices to work higher and for that to underpin strength in the rest of the complex, although palladium prices are showing their independent strength, driven by strong fundamentals.

In precious metals, spot gold prices are up by just 0.1% at $1,295.58 per oz, this despite North Korea test-firing another missile. Silver, palladium and platinum prices are up by between 0.1% and 0.4%. This is after a mixed performance on Tuesday when gold prices were little changed, silver prices were off by 1.1%, platinum prices were up by 0.2% and palladium rallied by 2.1% – leaving the complex to close with average gains of 0.3%.

Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are consolidating this morning, Wednesday November 29, with prices ranged between down 0.2% for tin and zinc and up 0.3% for copper, which is at $6,827 per tonne. Volume has been lower than of late with 7,660 lots traded as of 07.02am London time.

This morning’s weaker tone follows a generally negative day on Tuesday, when with the exception of tin that was little changed, the rest closed down by an average of 1.5% – led by a 1.8% fall in copper prices. Concern over a slowdown in China is the main depressing factor.

On the Shanghai Futures Exchange today, the base metals are weaker across the board by an average of 0.9% – ranged between a 1.7% drop in aluminium prices to a 0.3% decline in lead prices, while copper prices are off by 0.9% at 53,150 yuan ($8,049) per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are down by 0.9% at 53,100-53,220 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio is firmer at 7.78, compared with 7.77 on Tuesday.

In other metals in China, iron ore prices are up by 2.1% to 512.50 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up by 2.3%, gold prices are 0.1% firmer, while silver prices are off by 0.9%. While the base metals are under pressure on the back of concerns over a slowdown in China, we find it interesting that iron ore and steel rebar prices are strengthening, which makes us think the weakness in the base metals is more about consolidation in high ground, rather than the start of a correction.

In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are down by 0.05% at $63.28 per barrel. The yield on US ten-year treasuries is firmer at 2.33%, as is the German ten-year bund yield at 0.35%.

Equities in Asia this morning are generally firmer with gains in the Nikkei (0.49%) and the ASX 200 (0.45%), while the others we follow are little changed: the CSI 300 (+0.01%), the Kospi (-0.05%) and the Hang Seng (-0.04%).This follows strong performances in western markets on Tuesday, where in the United States the Dow closed up by 1.09% at 23,836.71 having set a fresh record high at 23,849.61 and in Europe where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up by 0.55% at 3,583.49.

The dollar index at 93.08 found some support on Tuesday as it looks as though some progress was made on US tax reform. The euro at 1.1870 is consolidating, as are the yen at 111.47 and the Australian dollar at 0.7588. The sterling is strong at 1.3415 on the back of a breakthrough offer on the Brexit bill.

The yuan at 6.5950 is consolidating, while the other emerging currencies we follow are strengthening, which suggests emerging markets are not overly concerned about the present market set-up, nor the geopolitical situation. It suggests a degree of risk-on, which we are seeing in equities – we wait to see if it returns to the base metals.

Today’s economic agenda is busy with consumer price index (CPI) data out in Germany and Spain, French consumer spending and gross domestic product (GDP), UK data on lending, M4 money supply and US data that includes GDP, GDP prices, pending home sales, crude oil inventories and the beige book. In addition, there is an Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting and Bank of England governor Mark Carney, UK Monetary Policy Committee member Sir David Ramsden, US Federal Open Market Committee member William Dudley and US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen are speaking.

Base metals prices are for the most part on a back footing as long positions are reduced as prices have become hung up in high ground. We see the pullbacks as consolidation and remain overall bullish basis the fundamentals. As such, we expect range trading to continue. With the broader markets still upbeat, we would not be surprised to see dip buying underpin the metals.

Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.

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Gold rises after North Korean missile launch

The spot gold price ticked higher during Asian morning trading hours on Wednesday November 29 on emerging geo-political tensions with North Korea after it conducted another ballistic missile launch.

The spot gold price was quoted at $1,295.1/1,295.4 per oz as of 11:42 Shanghai time, up $1.25 on yesterday’s close. Trade has ranged from $1,292.65 to $1,296.15 so far this morning.

  • The US dollar index was recently at 93.23, up 0.01% from yesterday’s close.
  • Despite a strong recovery in the US dollar overnight, the yellow metal’s price has been supported in Asia by the news that North Korea had fired another ballistic missile.
  • “One positive is that it (the gold price) has shrugged off a stronger US dollar overnight as the US Senate made progress on the tax reform bill,” Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA said.
  • “Reports late in the day that North Korea fired another ballistic missile did see some safe-haven buying emerge,” ANZ Research said.

Silver up; PGMs mixed

  • In the other precious metals, the spot silver price rose $0.013 to $16.870/16.905 per oz. Platinum gained $3 to $947/952 per oz and palladium dipped $1 to $1023/1,028 per oz.
  • On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, gold for June delivery was recently at 281.65 yuan ($42.65) per gram, and June silver was at 3,960 yuan per kilogram.

Currency moves and data releases 

  • The dollar index was up by 0.03% at 93.24 as of 10.30 Shanghai time.
  • In other commodities, the Brent crude oil spot price dropped by 0.13% to $63.23 per barrel while the Texas light sweet crude oil spot price was flat at $57.68.
  • In equities, the Shanghai Composite was down by 0.7% to 3,310.28.
  • US data overnight was mixed: consumer confidence beat expectations with a rise to 129.5 in November, hitting a 17-year high; the October advance trade deficit moved up to $68.3 billion from $64.1 billion previously; wholesale inventories fell by 0.4% in October, compared with a 0.1% rise in September.
  • Today’s economic calendar is quite busy with US data that includes preliminary third-quarter gross domestic product, pending home sales and crude oil inventories.
  • In addition, there will be Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meetings held throughout the day.
  • There are also a number central bank officials speaking today including US Federal Open Market Committee member William Dudley, Bank of England (BOE) governor Mark Carney, BOE deputy governor David Ramsden and US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen.

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Silver Stocks May Be Cheapest Opportunity In Decade



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Gold May Reach $5,000 Per Ounce



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U.S. Steel Imports Up 19%, Market Share At 28% In YTD



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Silver Is Starting To Break Lower



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Gold: Stop Above 1,308



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Gold Stays Still As Silver Slides Lower



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вторник, 28 ноября 2017 г.

Fed Unwind And Gold



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Gold: $1400 Is Key



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Banks Defend Silver's 200-Day Moving Average



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Metal Ratio Ponders Key Support



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Gold Technicals: Nov. 28



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Gold Steady Ahead Of Key News



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Gold, Silver Continue To Grind Higher, Gold Fails At 1300.00 Overnight



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Gold Forever 1200



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Inflation Target, Taylor Rule And Gold



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Silver Miners’ Q3’17 Fundamentals



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Gold Price Poised To Break $1300 Vs. USD



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Examining Silver Manipulation: What Some Analysts Miss



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понедельник, 27 ноября 2017 г.

Gold Could Break Out This Week: November 27 - December 1 2017



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Silver Speculators Pulled Back On Bullish Net Positions Last Week



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Copper Speculator Positions Show Slight Rebound After 3 Down Weeks



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Gold Speculators Bullish Net Positions Advanced Higher Last Week



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Chart Of The Day: Copper's Uptrend Continues



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четверг, 23 ноября 2017 г.

Gold: Trading Above 1308 Will Activate Rounding Bottom Bullish Pattern



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The Precious Metals Bears' Fear Of Fridays



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What The Stock Market's Gloomy Signals Mean For Gold



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Gold Improves On Dismal Durable Goods Orders



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Can Gold Predict USD Moves?



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среда, 22 ноября 2017 г.

Gold Technicals: Nov 22



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Silver Scaling Well Towards Breakout Zone



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Technical Analysis For Gold: 2017-11-21



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Selling Out Of Precious Metals And Buying Bitcoin, A Very Bad Idea



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Gold Heading Towards 38.2% Retracement Level, Critical Support Ahead



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Gold Tumbles As USD Recovers Somewhat



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понедельник, 20 ноября 2017 г.

Gold Heading Higher, But Not Quite Yet



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Silver's Technical Price Action



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Gold Eyes Technical Up-Leg



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Gold Hinges On Tax Reform



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Silver Strength Is Evident Enough For A Breakout Soon



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Copper Consolidation Evident Enough For Beginning Of An Uptrend Voyage



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Precious Metals Pop On USD Declines



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воскресенье, 19 ноября 2017 г.

Gold Buy Signal Leads To Push Higher



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Fake News, Gold-Silver Cryptocurrencies And Precious Metals Sales



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Gold Continues Uptrend Voyage: Part IV



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Gold Speculators Slightly Lowered Bullish Net Positions This Week



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Silver Speculators Raised Their Net Positions, Up For 2nd Week



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Copper Speculators Lowered Bullish Net Positions For 3rd Week



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четверг, 16 ноября 2017 г.

Gold Edges Higher On Disappointing U.S. Employment



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Germany's Golden Decade



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Commodities Eye New Upswing



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Rising CRB Index Signals Commodities Rally



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Gold: Still On An Uptrend



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Aluminum Weakness May Be Temporary



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Lead Ready For Strong Reversal Ahead



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среда, 15 ноября 2017 г.

Gold Lower As Markets Digest Consumer Spending And Inflation



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Tax Reform Uncertainty Likely To Support Gold



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Glittering Global Indices Indicate Eruption Of Crash: Part II



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4 Million Ounces Of Gold Traded In 15 Minutes



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Commodities Back In Favor With Investors



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The Upside-Down Of Copper



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вторник, 14 ноября 2017 г.

Gold Continues Uptrend Voyage: Part III



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Gold And Silver: The Dangers Of Zero



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Gold: November 14 Analysis



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Gold Lacks Conviction; Silver And Platinum Attempt Recoveries



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Gold Edges Higher As Markets Eye Tax Reform



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понедельник, 13 ноября 2017 г.

Copper Speculators Lowered Their Net Positions For 2nd Week



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Gold Speculators Advanced Their Bullish Net Positions For 2nd Week



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Silver Speculators Boosted Net Positions To Best Level In 8 Weeks



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Silver's Hidden Signal Now Bearish



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Will Copper And Crude-Oil Rally Drive Silver?



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Watch These Silver Swing Trades



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This Past Week In Precious Metals



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Gold: Weekly Rend Momentum Is Bearish



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Gold And Silver: The Cycle Of Falling Interest



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Again We Find Gold Boxed-In



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воскресенье, 12 ноября 2017 г.

Gold Investment Stalled



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Gold And Silver: Something Different Is Occurring



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The Strange Behavior Of Gold Investors From Monday To Thursday



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U.S. Consumer Spending In September And Gold



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No Change In Copper Price Trend Yet



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Will Silver Make New 2017 Lows?



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среда, 8 ноября 2017 г.

Saudi Purge And Gold



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Precious Metals And Commodities: Nov. 8, 2017



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A Different Powelling: Precious Metals Supply And Demand



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Down Month For Rare-Earth Metals



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Gold Continues Uptrend Voyage: Part II



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вторник, 7 ноября 2017 г.

Gold And The Big 4: A Slam Dunk



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Gold Spikes On Middle East Tension



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Silver: Glossy Or Matt?



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Elliott Wave Analysis: Gold Pushing Higher Into Fifth wave



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Silver’s Sign And USD’s Upcoming Reversal



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понедельник, 6 ноября 2017 г.

Gold Coat-Tails Commodities Higher



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Gold Steady To Continue Its Uptrend Voyage



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Weekly Gasoline Price Update: WTIC Jumps Almost 6%



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Silver Takes Support Inside A Bullish Trading Zone



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Dr. Copper Looks For A Short Breather Before Running Ahead



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Silver’s Sign and USD’s Upcoming Reversal



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Gold Continues To Consolidate At Key Level: Nov. 6th - 10th 2017



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Gold Bogged Down In The Bus Station



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Gold: Strong Opening On First Trading Session Attracts More Bulls



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Silver Ready To Strengthen Its Presence Inside The Bullish Trading Zone



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Precious Metals Update: Cycle Is Down As Consolidation Continues



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Saudi Arabia Jitters Reprieve Gold And Silver



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воскресенье, 5 ноября 2017 г.

Copper Ready To Define Strong Moves Ahead



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Precious Metals Are About To Blast Off



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Gold Ready For V Shape Reversal Soon, Part II



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Precious Metals Update: SLV On Sell Signal



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Powell’s Nomination And Gold



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November 2017 FOMC Meeting And Gold



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Gold Speculators Added To Bullish Net Positions This Week



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Silver Speculators Cut Back On Bullish Net Positions



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Copper Speculators Reduced Bullish Net Positions For 1st Time In 9 Weeks



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Zinc Ready For A Downward Voyage



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пятница, 3 ноября 2017 г.

Gold's Bearish Flag



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Gold And Silver Trying To Avoid 'Buying The (Non) Farm'



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четверг, 2 ноября 2017 г.

Gold Yawns As Fed Chair Nomination Looms



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Gold Eyes October Technical Lows



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6 Reasons Why Metals Have To Hold Support



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Palladium: Recent Attempts To Break $1000 Unsuccessful



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Will Gold Check The Trendline?



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Gold Awaits Fed Chair Pick



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Gold Higher Ahead Of Fed Rate Statement



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среда, 1 ноября 2017 г.

Copper:Gold Ratio Breaking 10-Year Support



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Gold And Silver Daily Forecast: November 1, 2017



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The Next Chair Of The Fed And Gold



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BoJ Meeting In October 2017 And Gold



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Gold: November 1 Analysis



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Gold Slips On Solid PMI, Consumer Confidence



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Will Dovish Draghi Plunge Gold?



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