суббота, 30 сентября 2017 г.
пятница, 29 сентября 2017 г.
METALS MORNING VIEW: Sell-off in gold pauses as dollar’s rebound falters
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are once again down across the board, with average losses of 0.3% this morning, Friday September 29. Volume has been average with 5,910 lots traded as of 06:42 BST.
This after a bullish performance on Thursday that saw the base metals complex close up by an average of 0.9%, spread between a 0.2% rise in tin prices and a 1.7% rally in three-month copper prices to $6,552.50 per tonne. So some consolidation once again seems underway so far this morning.
Precious metals prices are split between bullion prices that are weaker and firmer platinum group metal prices. Spot gold and silver prices are off by 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, with gold at $1,284.49 per oz, while palladium prices are up by 0.8% and platinum prices are up by 0.1%. This after bullish day on Thursday that saw average gains of 0.3%.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) this morning, aluminium prices are off by 0.4%, while the rest are stronger. Copper leads the pack with a 2% rally to 51,420 yuan ($7,717) per tonne, followed by gains in lead (1.5%), nickel (1.2%), zinc (1.1%) and tin (0.3%).
Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up by 0.7% at 54,420-51,560 yuan per tonne and the London/Shanghai copper arb ratio remains little changed at 7.88 from Thursday, but up from 7.79 on Wednesday.
Iron ore and steel rebar prices in China continue to weaken, with January iron ore prices down by 2.1% this morning at 449.50 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, while SHFE steel rebar prices are down by 0.9%. Gold and silver prices on the SHFE are little changed, both up by just 0.1%.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are off slightly, down 0.08% at $57.16 per barrel, and US ten-year treasuries have given back some of Thursday’s gains with the yield falling to 2.32%, compared with 2.35% around this time on Thursday. The German ten-year bund yield is unchanged at 0.47%.
Asian equities are for the most part positive this morning, the Kospi is by up 0.8%, the Hang Seng and CSI 300 are both up by around 0.3%, the ASX 200 is 0.2% firmer, while the Nikkei is off by 0.2%. This follows a firmer session on Thursday, where in the USA, the Dow closed up 0.18% at 22,381.20; and in Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up 0.24% to 3,563.64.
The dollar’s rise paused on Thursday and it is consolidating today. The dollar index was recently quoted at 93.25, so once again we wait to see if the dominant downward trend reasserts itself, or whether the downward trend has run its course and the ship has turned. A move up above 94.15, would suggest the latter. The direction of the dollar could have a meaningful impact on the underlying trends in the metals, especially gold. The pullback in currencies is also on hold with the euro at 1.1774, sterling at 1.3411, the yen at 112.71 and the Australian dollar at 0.7833.
The Chinese yuan continues to weaken, it was recently quoted at 6.6777, having been as strong as 6.4345 on September 8, but the weakness seen in the emerging currencies we follow has eased with the currencies consolidating in line with the dollar’s consolidation.
The economic agenda is busy today, with a host of Japanese data mostly beating their previous readings – see table below. Later there is a key data out across Europe, the UK and the USA, that should give traders insight into how concerted global growth is. In addition, three central bankers are speaking including UK Monetary Policy Committee member Ben Broadbent, Bank of England governor Mark Carney and US Federal Open Market Committee member Patrick Harker. A combination of all this data and positioning ahead of month/quarter-end, could make for an active trading day.
The base metals are looking somewhat stronger this morning following Thursday’s rebounds, but the overall tone in recent weeks has been one of correction and consolidation. That said, we have viewed the weakness as the market reacting to overbought conditions and have expected dips to attract buying that seems to be emerging now. With China’s National Day Golden Week holiday kicking off next week we expect choppier trading as liquidity thins. We would remain on the lookout for buying opportunities.
The stronger dollar and more confidence that the US Federal Reserve knows its stance, combined with a market that has become tired of the ongoing rhetoric but lack of progress over North Korea, are keeping gold prices away from the high ground, but there does seem to be dip buying into weakness. The North Korean situation is likely to escalate again at some stage, so the next rally in gold prices may not be that far away, but while we wait for that we would take direction from the dollar. Silver and platinum continue to follow gold’s lead, while palladium prices appear to have put in a base.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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четверг, 28 сентября 2017 г.
METALS MORNING VIEW: Gold prices slide as dollar rebounds
Base metals prices are down across the board by an average of 0.4% on the London Metal Exchange this morning, Thursday September 28. Volume has been average with 6,139 lots traded as of 06:44 BST.
This after a varied performance on Wednesday that saw further losses in nickel (-1.4%) and lead (-0.7%), while the rest were up between little changed for tin prices and 0.3% for aluminium and zinc prices.
Precious metals prices are down between 0.3% and 0.5% this morning, with spot gold prices off 0.4% at $1,278.51 per oz. This after a generally weak day on Wednesday when gold prices closed off 0.8%, silver was 0.3% weaker, platinum prices were down 0.4%, while palladium prices bucked the trend with a 1.5% rebound to $928 per oz.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) this morning, copper and zinc prices are up by 0.2%, with copper at 50,470 yuan ($7,600) per tonne, while the rest are weaker. Nickel prices lead on the downside with a 1.2% fall, followed by tin prices, down 0.3%, and aluminium and lead prices which are down by 0.2%.
Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 0.2% at 50,360-50,680 yuan per tonne and the London/Shanghai copper arb ratio has pushed higher to 7.88, from 7.79 on Wednesday, indicating LME copper prices have fallen more than SHFE prices.
Iron ore and steel rebar prices in China continue to weaken, with January iron ore prices down 3.7% this morning at 450 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, while SHFE steel rebar prices are down 0.9%. Gold and silver prices on the SHFE are down by 0.9% and 0.6%, respectively.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up by 0.12% at $57.71 per barrel and the US tax cut plans have seen on US ten-year treasuries jump, with the yield rising to 2.35%, compared with 2.26% around this time on Wednesday. The German ten-year bund yield has firmed to 0.47%.
Asian equities are for the most part positive this morning, led by a 0.5% gain on the Nikkei, which is being helped by the weaker yen; the ASX 200 and Kospi are up 0.1%; while the CSI 300 is little changed and the Hang Seng is down 0.2%. This follows a firmer session on Wednesday, where in the USA, the Dow closed up 0.25% at 22,340.71, while in Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up 0.53% to 3,555.17.
The dollar’s rise continues with the dollar index at 93.56, with the market more confident that the US Federal Reserve will raise rates in December and relieved that US president Donald Trump may finally be getting traction on some of his election promises. As the dollar strengthens, other currencies are on a back footing with the euro at 1.1736, sterling at 1.3337, the yen at 113.02 and the Australian dollar at 0.7822.
The Chinese yuan is losing value rapidly, it was recently quoted at 6.6661, having been as strong as 6.4345 on September 8, and the emerging currencies we follow are falling too.
German Gfk consumer climate edged lower to 10.8 from 10.9, later there is data out on German CPI, Spanish CPI, with US data including GDP, GDP prices, initial jobless claims, goods trade balance, wholesale inventories and natural gas storage. In addition, various central bankers are speaking, including Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda, Bank of England governor Mark Carney and US Federal Open Market Committee member Stanley Fischer.
The base metals remain in correction and consolidation mode as we approach the end of the quarter and the weakness does feel like profit-taking after strong rallies were seen over the summer. China’s National Day Golden Week holiday also kicks-off next week, so there may well be some book squaring ahead of that. Generally, we do see this weakness as consolidation within up trends – we would let the pullbacks run their course before looking for buying opportunities.
Gold prices remain under pressure as the market seems to have become tired of the ongoing rhetoric but lack of progress over North Korea. In addition, the stronger dollar is proving to be a negative for gold prices and may well be prompting stale long liquidation. We expect the North Korean saga to lead to scale-down buying. Silver and platinum prices are following gold’s lead, while the weaker palladium prices of late seem to be attracting dip buying.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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среда, 27 сентября 2017 г.
METALS MORNING VIEW: Gold prices under pressure as dollar rebounds
Base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange are mainly firmer this morning, Wednesday September 27, with gains averaging 0.6%. Volume has been average with 6,713 lots traded as of 06:48 BST.
This after a generally weak performance on Tuesday when the complex closed down by an average of 0.6%, with copper, aluminium and nickel’s performances looking quite bearish, while the others seemed to consolidate their positions more.
Precious metals prices are up an average of 0.4% this morning with gains seen across the board, led by a 0.7% climb in platinum prices, while gold prices are up 0.1% at $1,295.13 per oz. This after a down day on Tuesday when gold, silver and platinum prices closed off by an average of 1.6% as they gave back the gains seen following North Korea’s hydrogen bomb rhetoric, while palladium was little changed.
Precious metals prices are up an average of 0.4% this morning with gains seen across the board, led by a 0.7% climb in platinum prices, while gold prices are up 0.1% at $1,295.13 per oz. This after a down day on Tuesday when gold, silver and platinum prices closed off by an average of 1.6% as they gave back the gains seen following North Korea’s hydrogen bomb rhetoric, while palladium was little changed.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) this morning, aluminium and copper prices are down 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively, with copper prices at 50,450 yuan ($7,608) per tonne, while the rest are up by between 0.3% and 0.6%.
Spot copper prices in Changjiang are down by 0.7% at 50,390-50,590 yuan per tonne and the London/Shanghai copper arb ratio has edged higher to 7.79. The fact spot prices are showing a bigger loss than the futures highlights that the spot prices were set earlier in the day and futures prices have gone on to rebound.
The recent spell of weakness in iron ore and steel rebar prices seems to be over as January iron ore prices are up by 0.7% this morning at 471.5 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, while SHFE steel rebar prices are up by 0.9%. Gold and silver prices on the SHFE are down by 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up by 0.3% at $58.73 per barrel and have been near their highest since July 2015 and the yield on US ten-year treasuries is firmer at 2.26%, while the German ten-year bund yield is weaker at 0.42%.
Asian equities are on divergent paths this morning with the Nikkei, ASX 200 and Kospi down by between 0.1% and 0.3%, while the Hang Seng is up by 0.3% and CSI 300 is off slightly. This follows a slightly weaker session on Tuesday, where in the USA, the Dow closed down by 0.05% at 22,284.32, while in Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 dipped by 0.04% to 3,536.38. US markets are likely to be anxious today as they await news of the proposed US tax changes.
The dollar is on the rise and was recently quoted at 93.38, the rally seems to be fuelled by US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen’s comments supporting a gradual rise in US interest rates. The euro at 1.1746 is under pressure, as are sterling at 1.3367, the yen at 112.76 and the Australian dollar at 0.7847.
The Chinese yuan continues to weaken, it was recently quoted at 6.6373, while all of the emerging currencies we follow are similarly weaker as the dollar rebounds.
Data out today includes EU M3 money supply and private loans, UK CBI realised sales, with US data including durables goods orders, pending home sales and crude oil inventories. In addition, US Federal Open Market Committee member Lael Brainard is speaking.
The base metals are split into two camps with copper, aluminium and nickel looking vulnerable, while lead, zinc and tin prices look to be consolidating and well placed to push higher. We see the vulnerable group as correcting recent gains and looking for the level where buying re-emerges. We are not too bearish on these metals, but feel prices had run ahead of the fundamentals. We would let the pullbacks run their course, before looking to buy again.
Gold prices have been correcting recent gains, the pullback tested the break-up level at $1,295 per oz and it gave way, which is a sign of weakness. Bouts of haven buying have since given prices some lift, but the gains have not been held on to, which suggests a market that is getting tired of the ongoing rhetoric but lack of progress over North Korea. In addition, the stronger dollar is proving to be a negative for gold prices and may well be prompting stale long liquidation. We expect the North Korean saga to lead to scale-down buying.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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вторник, 26 сентября 2017 г.
понедельник, 25 сентября 2017 г.
LIVE FUTURES REPORT: Comex gold price starts the week lower
The Comex gold contract for December delivery fell $2.40 or 0.2% to $1,295.10 per oz in the US morning on Monday September 25.
Meanwhile, Comex copper prices slid in morning trading, with technical selling remaining a strong headwind against the complex.
Copper for December settlement on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 1.10 cents or 0.4% to $2.9335 per lb. The contract is trading around a five-week low.
The red metal is struggling to hold ground after erasing last month’s rally to a three-year high, while existing stocks and physical premiums indicate weak demand.
“We remain bullish for copper’s fundamentals, but prices had started to look overstretched recently so some profit-taking seemed probable, which is now unfolding,” Metal Bulletin senior analyst William Adams said. “The stock rise seen in recent weeks also suggests plentiful availability, so there should be little need for buyers to chase prices higher.”
Currency moves and data releases
• The dollar index was up 0.40% to 92.53.
• In other commodities, the Texas light sweet crude oil sport price was up 1.05% to $51.19 per barrel.
• The economic agenda is light today with German Ifo business climate coming in at 115.2, a miss from the 116 expectation. China’s CB leading index stood at 1.1%, above the previous reading of 1.0%.
• In addition, US Federal Open Market Committee members William Dudley, Charles Evans and Neel Kashkari as well as European Central Bank president Mario Draghi are speaking.
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LIVE FUTURES REPORT 22/09: Comex copper price extends rout into weekend
Comex copper prices are set to move into the weekend on a dour note with the red metal trading around a one-month low on Friday September 22.
Copper for December settlement on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.10 cents or 0.1% to $2.9335 per lb.
The red metal has been under heavy selling pressure after Federal Reserve members said they planned to raise rates one more time this year.
Additionally, President Donald Trump extended the scope of sanctions to individuals that provide goods, services or technology to North Korea. Both moves combined to sink prices and totally erase August’s rally to a three-year high.
“Judging by its price action, copper is undergoing a long overdue correction,” Metal Bulletin analyst Andy Farida said.
“But so far, the pullback is considered healthy and showed no sign of panic selling. Instead, this should test how strong the underlying support is and if the dips will attract late buyers to enter again,” Farida added.
Meanwhile in the precious metals space, Comex gold for December delivery rose $5.40 or 0.4% to $1,300.20 per oz.
Currency moves and data releases
- The dollar index is down 0.16% to 92.03.
- In other commodities, the Texas light sweet crude oil spot price is up 0.05% to $50.60 per barrel.
- Today in data, US flash manufacturing PMI came in at 53.0, above the forecast of 52.9. Flash services PMI stood at 55.1, below the economic consensus of 55.8.
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METALS MORNING VIEW: Gold prices looking for support
Base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange are on divergent paths this morning, Monday September 25, with zinc and tin prices higher by 0.8% and 0.3%, respectively; lead and copper prices are little changed with three-month copper at $6,479 per tonne; and nickel and aluminium prices are weaker by 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively.
Volume on the exchange has been fairly high with 8,128 lots traded as of 06:53 BST. This follows a generally stronger day on Friday when the complex rebounded to close up by an average of 0.4%, with nickel the only metal to close in negative territory.
Bullion prices are weaker this morning with gold and silver prices both down by 0.3%, with spot gold prices at $1,293.38 per oz. The platinum group metals are firmer with platinum prices up by 0.4% and palladium prices up by 1.1% at $926 per oz.
This follows on from Friday when gold and palladium prices closed up by 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively, while silver prices were off by 0.1% and platinum prices dropped by 0.6%.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) this morning, aluminium and nickel prices are down 0.8% and 2.3%, respectively, while the rest are up by between 0.9% for copper, which was recently quoted at 50,300 yuan ($7,623) per tonne and 1.5% for lead. So lead prices continue to steam ahead in China.
Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up by 1.1% at 50,340-50,510 yuan per tonne and the London/Shanghai copper arb ratio has edged higher to 7.77 from 7.76 on Friday.
The recent spell of weakness in iron ore and steel rebar prices has halted this morning, with January iron ore prices up by 0.2% at 470 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, while SHFE steel rebar prices are up by 0.1%. Gold prices on the SHFE are unchanged while silver prices are off 0.1%.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up by 0.1% at $56.79 per barrel and the yield on US ten-year treasuries is unchanged at 2.25%, while the German ten-year bund yield is little changed at 0.44%.
Asian equities are for the most part weaker this morning with the Hang Seng off 1.1%, the CSI 300 is down 0.4%, the Kospi is down 0.3%, the ASX 200 is little changed, while the Nikkei is bucking the trend with a 0.5% gain on reports Japanese prime minister Shinzō Abe is planning to introduce another stimulus package. This follows a mixed performance on Friday, where in the USA, the Dow closed down by 0.04% at 22,349.59, while in Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 climbed 0.05% to 3,541.42.
The dollar became quite choppy last week, but at 92.27 the index is looking supported and looks to be trying to work higher, which could be a headwind for metal prices. The euro at 1.1921 is holding up in high ground, but looks a bit toppy, as are sterling at 1.3556 and the Australian dollar at 0.7961, while the yen is looking weak at 112.23.
The Chinese yuan continues to weaken, it was recently quoted at 6.6063. The rupee at 64.84 is consolidating recent weakness, while the rest of the emerging currencies we follow are fairly flat.
Data out already today showed Japan’s manufacturing PMI climb to 52.6 from 52.2. Later there is data on German Ifo business climate, a Bank of England Financial Policy Committee statement and Chinese leading indicators. In addition, US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members William Dudley, Charles Evans and Neel Kashkari are speaking today.
The base metals are for the most part consolidating after recent gyrations, the exception is nickel where prices are still selling off. Copper prices ran into dip buying on Friday, while the rest are holding up in high ground and look well placed to challenge highs, although there does seem to be overhead selling around that may continue to either cap the advance or slow progress down.
Gold prices have been correcting recent gains, the pullback tested the break-up level at $1,295 per oz and it gave way, which is a sign of weakness. Prices also did not get too bullish ahead of the weekend when tensions over North Korea could have picked up, which is another sign that the market is tired. Silver and platinum look weak, with the latter starting to look oversold again, while palladium price weakness seems to be attracting support.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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BULLION LATEST: Stronger dollar pushes gold price lower
The spot gold price fell during Asian morning trading hours on Monday September 25, as the dollar strengthened and a quiet weekend on the North Korean front saw a further deterioration in any risk-off sentiment.
The spot gold price was recently quoted at $1,292.15-1,292.45 per oz as of 03:58 BST, down $5.20 on the previous session’s close. Trade has ranged from $1,289.6-1,294.05 so far.
- A firmer dollar in light of increasing expectations of another US rates rise this year has seen investors’ appetite for the yellow metal wane.
- The dollar index was up 0.11% at 92.25 as of 03:58 BST. This compares with the multi-year low of 91.01 seen on September 8.
- With the market increasingly expecting another US rates rise by year-end, this should continue to lend support to the dollar.
- According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which tracks the odds of interest rates in future months, there is a 71.4% probability that the policy board will raise rates to between 1.25-1.5% in December.
- Several FOMC members will give speeches this week and investors will be keeping a close eye for any hawkish language hinting towards the possibility of another interest rate increase this year.
- “Gold opened lower in early Asian trading … as weekend uncertainty passed without incident. Merkel’s win in the German federal elections and a quiet news weekend on the North Korean front, saw the US dollar opening stronger and gold’s weekend safe-haven premium eroded from Friday,” Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at Oanda, said.
- “The Asian session’s performance will now be dictated by whether most of the weekend risk hedges have already been unwound and geopolitical headlines,’ Halley added.
Silver, PGMs
- In the other precious metals, the spot silver price dipped $0.047 to $16.895-16.940 per oz. Platinum rose $3 to $931-936 per oz and palladium gained $6 to $919-924 per oz.
- On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, gold for December delivery was recently at 277.4 yuan ($42.05) per gram, and the December silver was at 3,859 yuan per kg.
Currency moves and data releases
- The dollar index was up 0.11% at 92.25 as of 03:58 BST.
- In other commodities, the Brent crude oil spot price rose 0.02% to $56.77 per barrel while the Texas light sweet crude oil spot price was down 0.18% to $50.54
- In equities, the Shanghai Composite dipped 0.36% to 3,340.57.
- In data on Friday, US flash manufacturing PMI came in at 53.0, above the forecast of 52.9. Flash services PMI stood at 55.1, below the economic consensus of 55.8.
- In EU data, flash manufacturing PMI was recorded higher at 58.3 from 57.4 last month while flash services PMI was also higher at 55.6 from 54.7.
- The economic agenda is light today with German Ifo business climate, the UK’s Financial Policy Committee statement and China’s CB leading index.
- In addition, FOMC members William Dudley, Charles Evans and Neel Kashkari as well as European Central Bank president Mario Draghi are speaking.
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воскресенье, 24 сентября 2017 г.
пятница, 22 сентября 2017 г.
METALS MORNING VIEW: Gold’s correction runs into haven buying
The base metals are for the most part weaker this morning, Friday September 22, the exceptions are tin that is up by 0.2% and zinc that is little changed, while the rest are down by an average of 1.1%. Losses are fairly tightly grouped with prices off between 0.9% and 1.5%. Three-month copper prices are down by 0.9% at $6,397 per tonne. Volume has been relatively high across the board with 12,134 lots traded as of 06:27 BST.
This weakness follows a significant down day yesterday when prices dropped an average of 2.1%, led by a 5.6% drop in nickel and a 3% drop in zinc prices, so there was another bout of selling which has brought aluminium, lead, zinc and tin prices down from high ground and seen copper and nickel prices extend lower.
Precious metals prices are up across the board this morning on the back of a pick-up in geopolitical tensions as North Korea threatens to test a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific. Prices are up by between 0.4% for spot silver and 0.7% for platinum, with gold prices up by 0.5% at $1,297.77 per oz.
This follows a general down day on Thursday that saw losses of around 0.6% for bullion prices – gold prices set a low at S1,288.50 per oz, which did breach the $1,295 per oz former break-out level. Platinum prices were by down 0.3% and palladium prices were unchanged.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) this morning, the base metals are down by an average of 2.6%, led by a 5.2% drop in nickel prices. Tin prices are off the least with a 1% drop, copper prices are down by 1.5% at 49,620 yuan ($7,528) per tonne, and lead, zinc and aluminium prices are off between 2.3% and 3%.
Spot copper prices in Changjiang are down by 1% at 49,670-49,970 yuan per tonne and the London/Shanghai copper arb ratio has eased to 7.76 from 7.79 on Thursday.
Weakness continues to hit iron ore and steel rebar prices with January iron ore prices down by 3.3% at 469.50 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, while SHFE steel rebar prices are off by 4.1%. Gold and silver prices on the SHFE are down by 0.5% and 0.9%, respectively.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are little changed at $56.42 per barrel and the pick-up in geopolitical tensions has lifted treasury prices with the yield on US ten-year treasuries easing to 2.25%, while the German ten-year bund yield is little changed at 0.45%.
Asian equities are for the most part weaker with the Kospi down 1%, the Hang Seng off 0.8%, the Nikkei and CSI 300 are off 0.2%, while the ASX 200 bucks the trend with a 0.4% gain, this despite weaker commodity prices. This follows a mixed performance on Thursday, where in the USA, the Dow closed down by 0.24% at 22,359.23, while in Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 climbed 0.4% to 3,539.59.
The dollar’s show of strength following the US Federal Open Market Committee meeting has once again been short-lived, the index reached a high of 92.70 on Wednesday evening, but has since fallen back to 91.95. This has lent support to other currencies with the euro at 1.1972, sterling at 1.3595, the yen at 111.98 and the Australian dollar at 0.7941, which is weaker than a few days ago, but is up from earlier lows of 0.7905.
The Chinese yuan continues to weaken, it was recently quoted at 6.5889. Most of the other emerging currencies we follow are weaker in line with the stronger dollar, the exception being the rand that has firmed in recent days.
Data out today is focused on flash manufacturing and services PMI which is out across Europe and the USA, plus there is data on UK CBI industrial order expectations. In addition, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi is speaking and UK prime minister Theresa May is to make a key speech on Brexit.
The metals are looking weak as the corrections continue, copper and nickel prices have set off on their second down legs, while the rest of the metals are consolidating recent gains. Although we are broadly bullish, we have thought prices had run ahead of the fundamentals, so a period of adjustment is unsurprising and as such we would let these pullbacks run their course before looking for buying opportunities. In addition, at some stage concerns over North Korea may affect the broader markets and lead to a period of broad market risk-off and that could drag the industrial metals down further.
Gold prices have been correcting recent gains, the pullback tested the break-up level at $1,295 per oz and it gave way, which is a sign of weakness, but the latest threats from North Korea have prompted some more haven buying. The yen often acts as a haven but at some stage non-Japanese investors looking for havens may well decide that with Japan in the firing line of missiles from North Korea the yen may not be so safe and that could prompt more inflow into gold.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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BULLION LATEST 22/09: Gold rebounds on North Korea concerns
The spot gold price pushed higher during Asian morning trade on Friday September 22, supported by renewed buying interested due to a pick-up in tensions between the USA and North Korea.
The spot gold price was quoted at $1,296.45-1,296.75 per oz as of 04:21 GMT, up $4.55. Trade has ranged from $1,291.35-1,298.15 so far today.
- A pick-up in tensions between the USA and North Korea prompted investors to seek out haven assets, giving some lift to gold prices this morning.
- “Today our machines seemed especially active recording their first trades on the market opening … as North Korea threatened to test a bomb in the Pacific Ocean,” John Browning, md with Bands financial said.
- The threat came hours after US president Donald Trump announced new financial sanctions targeting North Korea.
- Trump extended the scope of sanctions to individuals that provide goods, services or technology to North Korea.
- He also said the Chinese central bank has told other banks in the country to stop doing business with North Korea with immediate effect.
- Earlier this week in an address to the United Nations, Trump had said that the USA was ready to “totally destroy” North Korea if it was forced to defend its allies, a warning seen as unprecedented for a US president delivering an address to the world’s leaders and top diplomats.
- Providing further support to gold prices this morning was a weaker dollar.
- The dollar index was recently down 0.14% at 92.05 – this after rebounding to as high as 92.66 on Thursday following hawkish comments from the US Federal Reserve that it would start reducing its balance sheet from October as well as hinting at another US interest rates rise this year.
Silver, PGMs
- In the other precious metals, the spot silver price up $0.065 to $17.030-17.050 per oz.
- Platinum increased $6.50 to $940.0-945.0 per oz, and palladium climbed $6 to $914.0-919.0 per oz.
- On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, gold for December delivery was recently at 277.60 yuan ($42.14) per gram, while the December silver was at 3,868 yuan per kg.
Currency moves and data releases
- The dollar index was recently down 0.14% at 92.05.
- In other commodities, the Brent crude oil spot price was down 0.16% to $56.34 per barrel, and the Texas light sweet crude oil spot price rose 0.08% to $50.59.
- In equities, the Shanghai Composite dipped 0.35% to 3,345.97.
- In US data on Thursday, the house price index in July ticked up by 0.2%, below the forecast of a 0.4% rise. Weekly unemployment claims came in at 259,000, an improvement over the previous figure of 284,000. Finally, the Philly Fed manufacturing index in September was 23.8, better than the expectations of 17.3.
- Today, we have a host of flash manufacturing and services PMI data out across Europe and the USA.
- In addition, UK prime minister Theresa May is speaking about Britain’s post-Brexit relationship with the EU later.
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четверг, 21 сентября 2017 г.
LIVE FUTURES REPORT 21/09: Comex gold price tumbles
In the precious metals space, Comex gold for December delivery tumbled $20.30 or 1.5% to $1,296.10 per oz on Thursday September 21.
Meanwhile, Comex copper prices once again faced heavy selling pressure amid hawkish comments from the US central bank.
Copper for December settlement on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2.25 cents or 0.8% to $2.9465 per oz. Earlier, the contract hit $2.92, the lowest since August 17.
Yesterday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to leave rates unchanged – as was widely expected – but hawkish language from the central bank sent the dollar higher as it hinted at another rate increase this year.
At the beginning of the year, the policy board expressed a target of three rate rises and December is now seen as the most likely period for lifting rates again.
“The dollar strengthened on account of a more hawkish interpretation of the statement and the subsequent Yellen press conference, pressuring the precious group sharply lower, although both energy, base metals and US equity markets seem to withstand the blowback and hung on to decent gains going into yesterday’s close,” INTL FCStone analyst Edward Meir said.
“However, all three groups are under varying degrees of pressure today,” Meir added.
Currency moves and data releases
- “The more hawkish Fed stance, with FOMC saying it would start reducing its balance sheet from October has given the dollar a boost, with the dollar index rising to 92.55 – we wait to see if that is enough to turn the trend in the dollar, or whether the downward trend will continue to dominate,” Metal Bulletin’s Adams said.
- In other commodities, the Texas light sweet crude oil spot price was down 0.55% to $50.14 per barrel.
- Here in the USA, HPI in July ticked up 0.2% from last month, below the forecast of 0.4%. Weekly unemployment claims came in at 259,000, an improvement over the previous figure of 284,000. Finally, the Philly Fed manufacturing index in September was 23.8, better than the expectations of 17.3
- In addition, ECB president Mario Draghi is speaking.
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METALS MORNING VIEW: Gold prices testing $1,295 per oz support following FOMC statement
We were wary that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement could give the dollar a boost and that it could become a headwind for metals prices and that seems to have been the case. The base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are down across the board by an average of 1.1% this morning, Thursday September 21.
Weakness ranges from a 0.5% fall in tin prices to a 1.9% fall in nickel prices, with copper prices down 1.2% at $6,456 per tonne – the low so far this morning being $6,441.50, which breached the lows from a week ago at $6,452.50.
The metals had started to look stronger on Wednesday, they closed up with average gains of 1.3%, so in some ways this morning’s performance seems a knee-jerk reaction. Although the rebounds seen earlier in the week could also have been bear-flags following the initial weakness that started around two-weeks ago. Volume has been above average with 9,728 lots traded as of 06:13 BST. High volume and price weakness does not bode well.
Precious metals prices are split, with bullion prices weaker while the platinum group metals are firmer. Gold and silver prices are down 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively, with gold prices at $1,298.22 per oz and silver prices at $17.04 per oz. In contrast, platinum prices are up by 0.2% at $940.70 per oz and palladium prices are up by 0.9% at $919.10 per oz. This follows a day of weakness on Wednesday when the complex closed down by an average of 0.8%, led by a 1.4% drop in platinum prices.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) this morning, the base metals are mixed, with zinc, tin and copper prices weaker, the latter off by 0.9% at 50,290 yuan ($7,649) per tonne, while aluminium, lead and nickel prices are stronger. Lead prices are continuing to forge ahead with a 1.8% gain – see table below for more details. Given that the SHFE metals prices are not all lower, adds weight to our thoughts that the LME metals may be undergoing something of a knee-jerk reaction.
Spot copper prices in Changjiang are down by 0.8% at 50,260-50,460 yuan per tonne and the London/Shanghai copper arb ratio has climbed to 7.79, from 7.75 on Wednesday.
In this mixed picture for the metals, further weakness in steel rebar and iron ore prices are a negative factor. Steel rebar prices on the SHFE are down 0.5%, while January iron ore prices are down 1.9% at 486 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. Gold and silver prices on the SHFE are down 0.6% and 1%, respectively.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are little changed at $56.15 per barrel and given a more hawkish tone from the US Federal Reserve, the yield on US ten-year treasuries has climbed to 2.27%, while the German ten-year bund yield has eased to 0.44%.
Asian equities are mixed this morning with the Nikkei and CSI 300 up by 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, while the Hang Seng and Kospi are down by 0.1% and the ASX 200 is off by 0.8%. This follows a mixed performance on Wednesday, where in the USA, the Dow closed up by 0.19% at 22,412.59, while in Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 dipped 0.16% 3,525.55.
The more hawkish Fed stance, with FOMC saying it would start reducing its balance sheet from October has given the dollar a boost, with the dollar index rising to 92.55 – we wait to see if that is enough to turn the trend in the dollar, or whether the downward trend will continue to dominate. The direction of the dollar may now become a major factor in which direction the metals take in the weeks ahead. Against the stronger dollar, the euro at 1.1883 is weaker, as are sterling at 1.3487, the yen at 112.45 and the Australian dollar at 0.7974.
The Chinese yuan has been weakening since September 8 – it continues to do so and was recently quoted at 6.5891. Most of the other emerging currencies we follow are weaker in line with the stronger dollar.
Data out already shows Japan left interest rates unchanged at 0.1% and it will continue with its asset buying programme, while its all industries activity dipped 0.1%, after a 0.2% climb. Later there is a European Central Bank (ECB) economic bulletin, UK data on public sector borrowing and high street lending, with US data including initial jobless claims, the Philly Fed manufacturing index, the house price index, CB leading indicators and natural gas storage. In addition, ECB president Mario Draghi is speaking at 14:30 BST.
As Europe opens, the base metals are looking heavy and copper is looking vulnerable to starting another leg down in its correction. The rest are looking vulnerable but not to the same extent as the copper chart does. As such, we wait to see if there is follow-though selling as the European day unfolds, or whether the dip buyers come in. Today’s and tomorrow’s action on the base metals and the dollar, are therefore likely to set the tone for a while.
The strong tone from the Fed and the fact they seem to be more definite about where they are heading, is weighing on gold prices. We have seen the pullback in gold price as the market testing its break out level from the continuation pattern – the top of which was $1,295 per oz. So far the low since the FOMC statement has been $1,295.95 per oz. A break below support would open the way for further weakness, especially if it coincides with a further rebound in the dollar. The other precious metals are following gold’s direction, especially silver and platinum, while palladium seems to be running into some support ahead of the $900 per oz level. With gold testing support, trading is likely to remain nervous for a while.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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Gold slides on stronger dollar, hawkish Fed
The spot gold price declined during Asian morning trading on Thursday September 21, as a stronger dollar and the increasing likelihood of another US Federal Reserve interest rate increase this year curbed investors’ appetite for the yellow metal.
The spot gold price was quoted at $1,299.40-1,299.80 per oz as of 04:11 GMT, down $1.55. Trade has ranged from $1,295.95-1,301.45 so far today.
- On Wednesday, the Fed left interest rates unchanged – as was widely expected – but hawkish language from the central bank, seemingly pointing to another rate increase this year, sent the dollar higher.
- Markets had thought that the recent softness in US core inflation may have persuaded the Fed to hold off raising rates again this year – but it does not seem it will, ANZ Research noted.
- “The Fed did not surprise, but the underlying signal was more hawkish than markets expected, shooting the dollar higher,” it added.
- The dollar index was recently up 0.14% at 92.58.
- “With the prospect of higher US interest rates and in the absence of any geopolitical volatility, profit-taking continued in gold,” Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at Oanda, said.
- “The longer-term support region here at $1,296-1,300 should continue to remain under pressure today in Asia as traders readjust their Fed forecasts,” Halley added.
Silver, PGMs
- In the other precious metals, the spot silver price dipped $0.023 to $17.060-17.125 per oz.
- Platinum increased $2 to $939.0-944.0 per oz, and palladium went up $6 to $915.0-920.0 per oz.
- On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, gold for December delivery was recently at 278.50 yuan ($42.30) per gram, while the December silver was at 3,887 yuan per kg.
Currency moves and data releases
- The dollar index was recently up 0.14% at 92.58.
- In other commodities, the Brent crude oil spot price was down 0.3% to $56.12 per barrel, and the Texas light sweet crude oil spot price edged 0.02% higher to $50.70.
- In equities, the Shanghai Composite was up 0.14% to 3,370.84.
- In data on Wednesday, US existing home sales for August disappointed at 5.35 million, below the forecast of 5.46 million.
- Later today, we have the European Central Bank’s (ECB) economic bulletin, UK public sector net borrowing, EU consumer confidence as well as US data that includes unemployment claims, the Philly Fed manufacturing index, house price index and the CB leading index.
- In addition, ECB president Mario Draghi is speaking.
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среда, 20 сентября 2017 г.
LIVE FUTURES REPORT: Comex gold prices tick up with FOMC decision in sight
Comex gold prices for December settlement gained $5.0 or 0.4% to $1,315.60 per oz on Wednesday September 20.
Comex copper prices were hovering around the previous settlement with the Federal Reserve decision keeping action muted.
Copper for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange dipped 0.40 cents or 0.1% to $2.9655 per lb. Trading has ranged from $2.9635 to $2.9930.
“We remain bullish for copper’s fundamentals, but prices had started to look overstretched in the short term so some profit-taking seemed probable, which is now unfolding,” Metal Bulletin senior analyst William Adams said.
Market participants are awaiting the conclusion of the US Federal Open Market Committee’s September meeting later today with its economic projections, statement, rate decisions and press conference.
The policy board is not expected to raise rates, but after lifting the Fed funds rate twice already this year, there is a chance the Fed will raise interest rates one more time before the year concludes.
Currency moves and data releases
- The dollar index was recently down 0.07% to 91.76.
- In other commodities, the Texas light sweet crude oil spot price was up 0.63% to $50.53 per barrel.
- In data, US existing home sales for August disappointed with a 5.35 million reading, below the forecast of 5.46 million.
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METALS MORNING VIEW: Gold’s sell-off halts; rhethoric over North Korea, weaker dollar provide support
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are up by an average of 0.5% this morning, Wednesday September 20. Most metals are in positive territory, with three-month copper prices up by 0.5% at $6,563 per tonne, although zinc prices, down by 0.2%, are bucking the uptrend. Volume has been below average with 4,335 lots traded as of 06:31 BST.
This follows a mixed day of trading on Tuesday that saw average gains of 0.4%, with increases in aluminium (+1.7%) and lead (+1.3%), copper and zinc prices were little changed, while tin and nickel were weaker by 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively.
Precious metals prices are firmer by an average of 0.3% this morning, led by platinum that is up by 0.6%, followed by palladium prices that are up by 0.4%, while gold and silver prices are up by 0.2%, with spot gold prices at $1,313.69 per oz. This follows a day of strength for bullion prices on Tuesday that saw gold prices close up by 0.2%, silver prices climb by 0.6%, while the platinum group metals (PGMs) suffered with palladium prices falling 2.4% and platinum prices closing down 0.7%.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) this morning, the base metals are up across the board by an average of 0.9% – this follows a 1.7% gain at this time on Tuesday. Lead prices once again are leading the way with a 3.1% climb, followed by a 1% gain in aluminium prices, with nickel and tin up by 0.6% and 0.5%, respectively, while zinc prices are up by 0.2% and copper lags with a 0.1% gain to 50,790 yuan ($7,712) per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are also up by 0.1% at 50,700-50,860 yuan per tonne and the London/Shanghai copper arb ratio has eased to 7.75, from 7.77 on Tuesday.
On Tuesday, the slide in the rebar and iron ore prices appeared to have halted, but prices are weaker again this morning, with steel rebar on the SHFE off 0.9%, while January iron ore prices are down 1.5% at 499.50 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. Gold and silver prices on the SHFE are little changed.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are down by 0.13% at $55.30 per barrel and the yield on US ten-year treasuries has firmed to 2.24%, while the German ten-year bund yield is little changed at 0.45%.
Asian equities are mixed this morning with the Nikkei and Kospi little changed, the Hang Seng is up by 0.3%, the CSI 300 is up by 0.5% and the ASX 200 is off by 0.1%. This follows another positive session on Tuesday in the USA where the Dow closed up by 0.18% at 22,370.80, while in Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 climbed 0.13% to 3,531.18.
The dollar index at 91.70 appears to be drifting lower again after its attempt to rally last week. This suggests the market does not expect much shift in the US Federal Reserve’s stance when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement is issued this evening. As the dollar drifts, the euro at 1.2014 is climbing as is the Australian dollar at 0.8030, sterling is consolidating in high ground at 1.3525 and the yen’s slide has halted at 111.40.
The Chinese yuan has been weakening since September 8 – it reached 6.5968 on Tuesday, but was recently quoted at 6.5637, so seems to be consolidating. Other emerging market currencies are looking mixed with the rupee weaker at 64.362, the rupiah is giving back some of its recent gains, the rand is weak at 13.3032, while the ringgit is firm at 4.1910.
Data out already shows strong Japanese trade data with imports and exports beating expectations, which bodes well for the country’s economy as well as the state of the global economy. German PPI climbed by 0.2%, unchanged from the previous reading but better than expected. Later, UK monthly retail sales are due along with a host of US data including existing home sales and crude oil inventories, with the FOMC economic projections, statement, interest rate decision and press conference.
Aluminium prices suffered the least during last week’s correction and prices are now leading on the upside and extending gains. Lead prices are looking strong, followed by copper and zinc prices, while nickel appears to have run into enough buying to halt its price slide and tin prices are stuck sideways – but are well placed to break higher. As such, it does look like the recent sell-offs have run their course and buying is returning to varying degrees. The weaker dollar may well provide a tailwind, although whether the FOMC statement gives the dollar another boost remains to be seen.
The weaker dollar seems to be lending gold prices some support as did US president Donald Trump’s rhetoric at the UN on Tuesday. Given the stalemate over North Korea and the likelihood that tension will escalate again before too long, we would expect gold to remain in demand and for dips to be supported, as seems to be the case. If the FOMC statement does not point to any acceleration in monetary policy tightening then gold prices may well be able to work higher again. If gold prices do suffer a sell-off on the back of the statement then we would expect that to lead to an even better buying opportunity. For now, we see gold’s weakness as part of a test of its break out level ($1,295 per oz) and so far prices have held above that level. Silver continues to follow gold’s direction, while the PGMs are looking slightly heavier.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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BULLION LATEST: Gold edges higher; caution sets in ahead of FOMC statement
The spot gold price edged higher during Asian morning trading on Wednesday September 20, with investors remaining cautious ahead of the conclusion of the US Federal Open Market’s (FOMC) two-day September meeting later today.
The spot gold price was quoted at $1,312.40-1,312.80 per oz as of 04:08 GMT, up $1.95 from the previous session’s close. Trade has ranged from $1,309.73-1,313.05 so far today.
- Investors have taken a wait-and-see approach ahead of the release of the FOMC’s statement on Wednesday, which could give insight into the central bank’s plans for further US interest rate rises.
- While interest rates are widely expected to be left unchanged at today’s meeting, there is a 56.4% probability that the policy board will raise rates to between 1.25% and 1.5% in December, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which tracks the odds of interest rates in future months.
- The Fed is also expected to announce its balance sheet reduction plans later today.
- “Gold prices treaded water early in the trading session as investors await the outcome of the FOMC meeting,” ANZ Research noted.
- However, a pick-up in the war of words between the USA and North Korea has given a slight boost to gold prices.
- “Safe-haven buying emerged … as geopolitical risks rose. [US] president Trump gave a combative speech to the UN, threatening to totally destroy North Korea if forced to defend itself. And while he suggested diplomatic efforts should continue, he poured scorn on past efforts to halt Iran’s nuclear development,” the bank added.
Silver, PGMs
- In the other precious metals, the spot silver price edged $0.027 higher to $17.290-17.335 per oz.
- Platinum increased $5 to $953.0-958.0 per oz, and palladium went up $5 to $914.0-919.0 per oz.
- On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, gold for December delivery was recently at 280.10 yuan ($42.53) per gram, while the December silver was at 3,923 yuan per kg.
Currency moves and data releases
- The dollar index was recently down 0.14% at 91.70.
- In other commodities, the Brent crude oil spot price was up 0.47% to $55.40 per barrel, and the Texas light sweet crude oil spot price rose 0.76% to $50.28.
- In equities, the Shanghai Composite was down 0.14% to 3,352.04.
- In data on Tuesday, the EU’s July current account balance showed a slightly higher surplus of €25.1 billion ($29.9 billion). In the USA, building permits in August came in at 1.3 million. Housing starts over the same period were in-line with expectations at 1.18 million.
- Today, UK monthly retail sales are due along with a host of US data including existing home sales, crude oil inventories as well as the conclusion FOMC’s September meeting with its economic projections, statement, rate decision and press conference.
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вторник, 19 сентября 2017 г.
LIVE FUTURES REPORT 19/09: Comex copper price inches higher; dollar retreats
Comex copper prices maintained Monday’s gains on Tuesday September 19, with market participants awaiting the results of upcoming monetary policy meetings.
Copper for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange moved up 0.10 cents, or 0.1%, to $2.97 per lb.
Base metals prices stabilised ahead of the outcome of the latest US Federal Open Market Committee’s monetary policy meeting on Wednesday September 20.
The policy-board is not expected to raise rates tomorrow, limiting the impact it will have on the copper market. However, rising London Metal Exchange and Chicago Metal Exchange stocks are placing a significant headwind on the red metal.
“We remain bullish for copper’s fundamentals overall as improving demand and supply disruptions are set to tighten the supply/demand balance,” Metal Bulletin analyst James Moore said. “But the recent build in stocks does little to signal any shortage of material, as the market continues to work through ample scrap availability brought out by higher prices.”
Meanwhile in precious metals, Comex gold for December settlement rose $3.10, or 0.2%, to $1,313.90 per oz.
Currency moves and data releases
- The dollar index was down 0.16% at 91.83.
- In other commodities, the Texas light sweet crude oil spot price rose 46 cents to $50.58 per barrel.
- The economic agenda is relatively light today. The EU’s July current account balance showed a slightly higher surplus of €25.1 billion ($29.9 billion). In the US, building permits in August came in at 1.3 million. Housing starts over the same period were in-line with expectations at 1.18 million.
- Import prices compared to last month rose 0.6%, an improvement over the previous figure of 0.1%.
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METAL MORNING VIEW 19/09: Metals consolidate Monday’s gain, expect choppy trading until FOMC statement
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are for the most part weaker this morning, Tuesday September 19. The exceptions are aluminium and copper prices that are up by 0.6% and 0.1%, respectively, with the latter at $6,537 per tonne. The rest of the complex are off between 0.3% for zinc prices and 0.9% for nickel prices. Volume has been above average with 8,054 lots traded as of 06:27 BST.
This follows a bullish day on Monday that saw prices climb an average of 1%, ranged between 0.1% gains for aluminium prices and 2.6% for zinc prices, while copper prices closed up 0.7%.
Precious metals prices are down by an average of 0.3% this morning. Gold prices are off by 0.1% at $1,306.71 per oz, silver prices are down by 0.4%, platinum prices are little changed and palladium prices are off by 0.5%. This follows a mixed performance on Monday that saw losses in gold (-0.9%), silver (-2.1%) and platinum (-0.7%), while palladium bucked the trend with a 1.3% rise. By and large, the precious metals seem to be in correction mode, although palladium prices are managing to tread water.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) this morning, the base metals are up across the board by an average of 1.7% as they follow the LME’s performance on Monday. Lead remains the best performer with a 3.4% gain, followed by zinc (+2.8%), aluminium (+2.1%), tin (+1.1%) and copper prices that are up by 0.9% at 50,790 yuan ($7,707) per tonne. Nickel prices lag with a 0.2% gain. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up by 0.3% at 50,700-50,820 yuan per tonne and the London/Shanghai copper arb ratio has climbed to 7.77, from 7.71 on Monday. The pick-up in the ratio suggests SHFE prices are rebounding at a faster pace than LME prices.
The slide in the rebar and iron ore prices has slowed or halted, with SHFE steel rebar prices down by just one yuan, while January iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange edged up by 0.1% to 505.50 yuan per tonne. Gold and silver prices on the SHFE are off by 0.3% and 1.4%, respectively.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are down by 0.19% at $55.28 per barrel and the yield on US ten-year treasuries has firmed to 2.22%, while the German ten-year bund yield has climbed to 0.45%.
Asian equities this morning are slightly weaker, the exception being the Nikkei that is up 2% but it is catching up having been closed on Monday. The Hang Seng, ASX 200 and Kospi are off by 0.1% and the CSI 300 is down by 0.3%. This follows another positive session on Monday in the USA where the Dow closed up by 0.3% at 22,331.35, while in Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 climbed 0.3% to 3,526.74.
The dollar index’s is consolidating around 91.88, little changed from this time on Monday. Sterling is strong at 1.3542, but holding below Monday’s high of 1.3618, the euro is firm at 1.1983, the yen at 111.84 is weaker, as is the Australian dollar at 0.7976. All in all, the dollar now seems to be waiting direction from tomorrow’s US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions and statements.
The Chinese yuan has been weakening since September 8 – it was recently quoted at 6.5920, the recent peak being 6.4345 – this on the back of a decision by the People’s Bank of China to relax rules on shorting the yuan. The other emerging market currencies we follow are also on a back footing, perhaps anticipating a slightly more hawkish tone from the FOMC tomorrow.
Data out today includes EU current account, German and EU ZEW economic sentiment, with US data including building permits, housing starts, current account and import prices.
The corrections in the LME base metals may have run their course as buying appears to have the upper hand with prices generally getting some lift. The buying has been most effective on lead, zinc, aluminium and tin; copper’s rebound looks fragile and nickel is still undecided on which way to move. The rebounds could be dead-cat bounces so we need to be wary, but generally with the metals’ fundamentals looking stronger, we have expected the pullbacks to lead to buying opportunities. For now we would let the markets show their hand more, especially ahead of the FOMC meeting, as should the dollar catch a tailwind following the FOMC announcements then a stronger dollar could be a headwind for the metals.
Gold prices are retreating, but we see this as profit-taking after a strong run higher since early July. Again traders may be wary about whether the dollar is about to rebound so are reducing exposure. We expect dips to be well supported as the geopolitical situation in North Korea is likely to deteriorate further before a solution is found, so there may be more haven buying to be done. A pick-up in geopolitical tensions could also weigh on the broader markets, which could add demand for havens.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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METAL MORNING VIEW: Metals consolidate Monday’s gain; expect choppy trading until FOMC statement
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are for the most part weaker this morning, Tuesday September 19. The exceptions are aluminium and copper prices that are up by 0.6% and 0.1%, respectively, with the latter at $6,537 per tonne. The rest of the complex are off between 0.3% for zinc prices and 0.9% for nickel prices. Volume has been above average with 8,054 lots traded as of 06:27 BST.
This follows a bullish day on Monday that saw prices climb an average of 1%, ranged between 0.1% gains for aluminium prices and 2.6% for zinc prices, while copper prices closed up 0.7%.
Precious metals prices are down by an average of 0.3% this morning. Gold prices are off by 0.1% at $1,306.71 per oz, silver prices are down by 0.4%, platinum prices are little changed and palladium prices are off by 0.5%. This follows a mixed performance on Monday that saw losses in gold (-0.9%), silver (-2.1%) and platinum (-0.7%), while palladium bucked the trend with a 1.3% rise. By and large, the precious metals seem to be in correction mode, although palladium prices are managing to tread water.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) this morning, the base metals are up across the board by an average of 1.7% as they follow the LME’s performance on Monday. Lead remains the best performer with a 3.4% gain, followed by zinc (+2.8%), aluminium (+2.1%), tin (+1.1%) and copper prices that are up by 0.9% at 50,790 yuan ($7,707) per tonne. Nickel prices lag with a 0.2% gain. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up by 0.3% at 50,700-50,820 yuan per tonne and the London/Shanghai copper arb ratio has climbed to 7.77, from 7.71 on Monday. The pick-up in the ratio suggests SHFE prices are rebounding at a faster pace that LME prices.
The slide in the rebar and iron ore prices has slowed or halted, with SHFE steel rebar prices down by just one yuan, while January iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange edged up by 0.1% to 505.50 yuan per tonne. Gold and silver prices on the SHFE are off by 0.3% and 1.4%, respectively.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are down by 0.19% at $55.28 per barrel and the yield on US ten-year treasuries has firmed to 2.22%, while the German ten-year bund yield has climbed to 0.45%.
Asian equities this morning are slightly weaker, the exception being the Nikkei that is up 2% but it is catching up having been closed on Monday. The Hang Seng, ASX 200 and Kospi are off by 0.1% and the CSI 300 is down by 0.3%. This follows another positive session on Monday in the USA where the Dow closed up by 0.3% at 22,331.35, while in Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 climbed 0.3% to 3,526.74.
The dollar index’s is consolidating around 91.88, little changed from this time on Monday. Sterling is strong at 1.3542, but holding below Monday’s high of 1.3618, the euro is firm at 1.1983, the yen at 111.84 is weaker, as is the Australian dollar at 0.7976. All in all, the dollar now seems to be waiting direction from tomorrow’s US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions and statements.
The Chinese yuan has been weakening since September 8 – it was recently quoted at 6.5920, the recent peak being 6.4345 – this on the back of a decision by the People’s Bank of China to relax rules on shorting the yuan. The other emerging market currencies we follow are also on a back footing, perhaps anticipating a slightly more hawkish tone from the FOMC tomorrow.
Data out today includes EU current account, German and EU ZEW economic sentiment, with US data including building permits, housing starts, current account and import prices.
The corrections in the LME base metals may have run their course as buying appears to have the upper hand with prices generally getting some lift. The buying has been most effective on lead, zinc, aluminium and tin; copper’s rebound looks fragile and nickel is still undecided on which way to move. The rebounds could be dead-cat bounces so we need to be wary, but generally with the metals’ fundamentals looking stronger, we have expected the pullbacks to lead to buying opportunities. For now we would let the markets show their hand more, especially ahead of the FOMC meeting, as should the dollar catch a tailwind following the FOMC announcements then a stronger dollar could be a headwind for the metals.
Gold prices are retreating, but we see this as profit-taking after a strong run higher since early July. Again traders may be wary about whether the dollar is about to rebound so are reducing exposure. We expect dips to be well supported as the geopolitical situation in North Korea is likely to deteriorate further before a solution is found, so there may be more haven buying to be done. A pick-up in geopolitical tensions could also weigh on the broader markets, which could add demand for havens.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
The post METAL MORNING VIEW: Metals consolidate Monday’s gain; expect choppy trading until FOMC statement appeared first on The Bullion Desk.
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понедельник, 18 сентября 2017 г.
LIVE FUTURES REPORT: Comex gold price dips; copper rebounds
Comex gold for December settlement on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $9.40 or 0.7% to $1,315.80 per oz in the morning of Monday September 18.
Meanwhile, Comex copper prices rebounded in the US morning after last week saw a heavy round of technical selling.
Copper for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange gained 1.35 cents or 0.5% to $2.9625 per lb. The contract sustained major losses last week on its way to a one-month low.
Prices have fluctuated wildly the past month with growing inventories signalling weak demand, but positive Chinese and US data is lending support.
“In spite of last week’s sell-off in LME copper, we leave our constructive bias on LME copper unchanged over the very short term,” Metal Bulletin analyst Boris Mikanikrezai said.
“Our bullish stance reflects our view that the major uptrend in prices, which started last year, is not in danger. In fact, we view the current sell-off as healthy because: weaker hands exit the market, marking the positioning healthier (ie, less stretched); and overbought conditions are alleviated,” Mikanikrezai added.
Currency moves and data releases
- The dollar index was up 0.01% to 91.84.
- In other commodities, the Texas light sweet crude oil spot price was down 0.26% to $50.31 per barrel.
- In data today, the US NAHB housing market index came in at 64, a slight disappointment from the 67 estimate.
- In addition, Bank of England governor Mark Carney is speaking.
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METALS MORNING VIEW: Gold prices under pressure as risk-on seen in other markets
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are up across the board by an average of 0.8% this morning, Monday September 18. Zinc prices lead the way with a 1.2% rise, followed by lead prices, up by 1.1%, and three-month copper prices that are up by 1% at $6,553 per tonne.
Volume has been slightly above average with 7,058 lots traded as of 06:30 BST. Lead and zinc prices appear to have found strong enough support for prices to rally and the other metals seem to have found support with some buying emerging this morning.
This follows a split performance on Friday, when copper, aluminium, nickel and tin closed off by an average of 0.5%, while lead and zinc prices rallied an average of 1.4%.
In precious metals this morning, gold prices are off by 0.2% at $1,317.30 per oz, while the more industrial precious metals are firmer, with silver and platinum prices up by 0.1% and palladium prices up by 1.4% at $935.90 per oz. This follows price weakness on Friday when prices closed down an average of 1.2%.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) this morning, aluminium and nickel prices are off 0.6% and 0.5%, respectively, while the others are seeing gains: lead (+2%), zinc (+1.3%), tin (+0.1%) and copper (+0.3%) – with copper prices at 50,560 yuan ($7,715) per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 0.2% at 50,480-50,680 yuan per tonne and the London/Shanghai copper arb ratio has eased to 7.71, from 7.74 on Friday.
While some of the base metals may be running into some buying, the steel metals are still under pressure with steel rebar prices on the SHFE and January iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange both down by 1.5%. Gold and silver prices on the SHFE are off by 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up by 0.38% at $55.69 per barrel and the yield on US ten-year treasuries has firmed to 2.20%, while the German ten-year bund yield has climbed to 0.43%.
Asian equities this morning are buoyant, led by a 1.3% gain in the Kospi, the Hang Seng is up by 1.1%, the ASX 200 is up by 0.5% and the CSI 300 is up by 0.4%. This suggests geopolitical concerns are on a back footing again. This follows a strong session on Friday in the USA where the Dow closed up by 0.2% at 22,268.34, while in Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 dropped by 3.1% to 3,515.55.
The dollar index’s rebound has halted for now – at 91.88, the index is below Thursday’s rebound high of 92.66. Sterling is racing higher at 1.3593 as pressure builds in the UK for a rate rise; the euro is consolidating at 1.1944, the recent high being 1.2092; the yen is weaker at 111.24 and the Australian dollar at 0.8027 is looking strong. As such, the recent rebound in the US dollar seems to have been just a counter trend move and a weaker dollar should help underpin commodity prices.
The Chinese yuan has been weakening since September 8 – it was recently quoted at 6.5512, the recent peak being 6.4345. The other emerging market currencies have become choppier, but are looking relatively strong again.
Data out today includes UK house price index that fell 1.2%, after a 0.9% fall previously, later there is data on the Italian trade balance, EU CPI, there is a Bundesbank monthly report, data on US housing with the NAHB housing market survey and US TIC long term purchases. In addition, Bank of England governor Mark Carney is speaking at the International Monetary Fund.
The corrections in the LME base metals appear to have run their course with the recent dips attracting buying. Lead and zinc are leading the rebounds and underlying tails, plus this morning’s price gains, suggest buying is returning across the complex. We have been on the lookout for base building and another buying opportunity, which may now be unfolding. We wait to see if follow-through buying emerges as the week progresses.
Gold prices were weaker last week and they have been consolidating in recent days, but with prices edging below the 20-day moving average this morning, further weakness may follow. With equity markets on the rise it suggests haven demand is on a back footing and while that is the case, gold prices may well consolidate at lower levels for a while. We do expect dips to remain well supported as the North Korean situation seems likely to escalate again before a solution is found. Silver and platinum prices are looking weaker too, while palladium prices are holding up well.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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Gold succumbs to selling pressure; focus on Fed meeting
Gold edged lower during Asian morning trading on Monday September 18, coming under selling pressure due to an absence of geopolitical risk while prospects of monetary policy tightening in the USA also weighed on the yellow metal.
The spot gold price was quoted at $1,317.85-1,318.25 per oz as of 04:25 GMT, down $2.0. Trade has ranged from $1,315.50-1,319.70 so far today.
- A firmer dollar and lack of geopolitical risk has seen investor appetite for the yellow metal decline, with prices succumbing to selling.
- The dollar index was recently at 91.85, still off a multi-year low of 91.01 seen on September 8.
- “Gold’s correction lower continues in Asia this morning following Friday’s $15 sell-off from $1,335 to $1,320. Gold fell to $1314.50 on the Comex open this morning before catching its breath and rising to its present level at $1,317 as a lack of weekend event risk saw hedges unwound,” Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at Oanda, said.
- “Gold prices also came under some selling pressure, with investors dismissing geopolitical risks and instead focusing on the possibility of rate hikes from central banks,” ANZ Research noted.
- Expectations of a rate increase by the US Federal Reserve in December have risen sharply in recent weeks, and now sit at around 46%, the bank added.
- Investors will be focused on the upcoming two-day US Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which begins on Tuesday and concludes with a news conference from chair Janet Yellen, as the US central bank is expected to announce a balance sheet reduction to ‘normalise’ monetary policy.
- The committee is unlikely to do anything with rates at this meeting but could drop some hints on its plans for future rate changes.
Silver, PGMs
- In the other precious metals, the spot silver price was up $0.04 to $17.595-17.615 per oz.
- Platinum increased $3.0 to $966.0-971.0 per oz, and palladium rose $6.0 to $927.0-932.0 per oz.
- On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, gold for December delivery was recently at 280.15 yuan ($42.75) per gram, and the December silver was at 3,967 yuan per kg.
Currency moves and data releases
- The dollar index was down 0.02% at 91.85.
- In other commodities, the Brent crude oil spot price was up 0.13% to $55.69 per barrel, and the Texas light sweet crude oil spot price eased 0.04% to $50.42.
- In equities, the Shanghai Composite was up 0.31% to 3,364.14.
- In US data on Friday, core retail sales undershot with a 0.2% rise in August, compared with an expected and previous increase of 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively. Industrial production for August also disappointed with a decline of 0.9% – an increase of 0.1% had been expected.
- In data today, the EU’s final CPI and the USA’s NAHB housing market index are of note.
- In addition, Bank of England governor Mark Carney is speaking.
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воскресенье, 17 сентября 2017 г.
суббота, 16 сентября 2017 г.
пятница, 15 сентября 2017 г.
METALS MORNING VIEW: Gold prices rebound as geopolitical tensions rise again
Base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange are on divergent paths this morning, Friday September 15, with losses in aluminium (-0.6%), nickel (-0.5%) and copper (-0.1%) at $6,496 per tonne, while zinc is up 0.3% and lead and tin are little changed.
Volume has been slightly above average with 7,530 lots traded as of 06:23 BST. A quick glance at the charts suggests the market is still in correction mode although some consolidation is starting to be seen in some of the metals.
This follows a generally weaker day on Thursday, when the complex closed down an average of 0.5%, with nickel leading on the downside with a 1.9% drop, while lead bucked the trend with a 1.2% rise, mainly on the back of strength in China.
Precious metals are for the most part weaker this morning, with the complex off by an average of 0.2%, led by 0.3% declines in gold and platinum prices, with spot gold at $1,329.26 per oz. Palladium is firmer by 0.1% at $928.30 per oz. This follows a mixed performance on Thursday when gold, silver and platinum were up an average of 0.6%, while palladium prices dropped 1.1%.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) this morning, lead prices are up 0.8% – environmental inspections continue to affect supply, while the rest of the base metals are down an average of 1%, led by a 2.3% drop in nickel prices, while zinc is off just 0.1%. Copper prices are down 0.6% at 50,270 yuan ($7,672) per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are down 0.3% at 50,330-50,570 yuan per tonne and the London/Shanghai copper arb ratio has rebounded to 7.74.
Steel rebar prices on the SHFE are down 1.8%, while iron ore prices for January delivery on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are down 2.5% at 511 yuan per tonne. Back on the SHFE, gold and silver prices are up 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively.
In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are little changed at $55.26 per barrel and the yield on US ten-year treasuries has firmed to 2.18%, while the German ten-year bund yield has climbed to 0.41%.
Asian equities this morning are for the most part upbeat despite further threats from North Korea on Thursday and another missile test this morning. Gains have been seen in the Kospi (+0.2%), the Nikkei (+0.6%), the Hang Seng (+0.1%), the CSI 300 (+0.1%), while the ASX 200 is down 0.7%. On Thursday, US markets were stronger with the Dow closing up 0.2% at 22,203.48 and setting a fresh record high intraday, while in Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 climbed 0.1% to 3,526.48.
The dollar index’s rebound has halted for now – at 92.08, the index is below Thursday’s rebound high of 92.66. Sterling is pushing higher at 1.3411, the euro is consolidating at 1.1919, the recent high being 1.2092, the yen is weaker at 110.41 and the Australian dollar at 0.8001 is consolidating in high ground. We are still waiting to see if spikes in the dollar and currencies on September 8 were a turning point and whether the dollar will continue to go higher, which could be a headwind for metals, or is the recent strength in the dollar just a mini-countertrend move?
The Chinese yuan has been weakening since September 8 – it was recently quoted at 6.5456, the recent peak being 6.4345. The other emerging market currencies have become more choppy, but not too directional.
Data out today includes the EU trade balance, UK quarterly bulletin from the Bank of England and the CB leading index as well as US data including Empire State manufacturing index, industrial production, capacity utilisation, preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations and business inventories.
The corrections in the LME base metals prices continue for the most part, although some underlying tails on recent chart candlesticks suggest some dip buying. For now we would let these corrections run their courses, but given a general back drop of better economic data and an image of concerted global growth, albeit slow, we would be on the lookout for bases to build and for that to provide another buying opportunity. With the dollar still attempting a rebound any rebound in base metals prices may be delayed, or laboured.
Gold prices found support yesterday at the 20 day moving average and prices closed on the day’s high, which bodes well. Given another escalation in the North Korean rhetoric along with another missile test that flew over Japan, it is not surprising that gold prices have turned higher. The rest of the precious metals are consolidating after recent weakness, but they are not showing the strength being seen in gold.
Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.
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