вторник, 28 февраля 2017 г.

Soros And Paulson Out Of Gold



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Supply Shock Hits Copper Industry Hard



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Gold: Try Shorts With Stops Above 1265



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Gold: Wedging Action



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PLATINUM TODAY: Consolidating today, but looking stronger overall

Short Term:
Medium Term:
Long Term:
Resistances:
R1 915 DTL (broken at)
R2 926 Oct 2016 lows
R3 991 Neckline triggered at
R4 1009 20 DMA
R5 1021 Nov 9 peak
R6 1029 Feb 9 peak
R7 1045.50 Recent high
R8 1090 May 2016 peak
R9 1195 Aug 2016 peak
R10 1289 Jan 2015 peak
Support:
S1 1009 20 DMA
S2 1009 UTL
S3 977 Neckline
S4 948 Jan 19 low
S5 911 Feb low/HSL
S6 889 Low so far
S7 811 Jan low
S8 807 Support 2004
S9 745 2008 low
Stochastics:Bullish but converging
Legend:
BB – Bollinger band
DMA – daily moving average
Fibo – Fibonacci retracement level
(H)SL – (horizontal) support line
H&S – head-and-shoulder pattern
U/DTL – up/downtrend line

Technical Comment

Analysis

  • The rebound has triggered a potential inverse H&S; the count from this pattern is $1,108 per oz.
  • Having broken higher in recent weeks, prices pushed higher again on Friday February 24 to set a fresh high for the year at $1,045.50 per oz.
  • The recent pullback found support around the UTL and the 20 DMA; although both were breached intraday, the market avoided closing below the lines.
  • The stochastics have jumped higher having turned quite bearish last week, but they are converging again to cross lower, so it may be that prices need to consolidate again after the run up to set fresh highs. 
  • Overall we expect the uptrend to continue.

Macro factors

Investor interest in ETFs has flattened out again after a show of strength in the middle part of February – holdings have climbed to 2.37 million oz from 2.33 million oz on February 8.

The funds’ stance had turned a little more bullish in January and that ran until early February. However, in recent weeks the net long fund position (NLFP) has dipped. Both the gross long and gross short positions are in low ground so there is potential for either side to pick up. On balance, we would expect funds to get longer, but having hit resistance in February, the funds seemed in no hurry to extend exposure. That said, that may have changed with prices setting fresh highs for the year again.

 

Conclusion

Now that prices have pushed higher again, we would not be surprised to see investment interest pick up. On the chart, prices look well placed to extend gains.

All trades or trading strategies mentioned in the report are hypothetical, for illustration only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

The post PLATINUM TODAY: Consolidating today, but looking stronger overall appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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Barge Glut On The Mississippi River



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Canada Zinc: Right Time, Right Metal



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Will Gold Prices Finally Pull Back Or Continue Marching Ahead?



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Gold Breaks First Resistance



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понедельник, 27 февраля 2017 г.

Gold May Benefit From Trump



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Gold Chart Indicates Prices Are Supported At $1220



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Is Gold Heading Back To $1200?



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Gold Rally Continues On Soft US Core Durable Goods, Housing



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Gold Capsizes, Then Surprises!



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Gold: Stuck Between Crucial Support And Resistance



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Gold Elliott Wave In Possible Zigzag Pattern



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Curious Gold-Silver Ratio That Did Not Fall



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PLATINUM TODAY: Prices meeting stiff resistance

Short Term:
Medium Term:
Long Term:
Resistances:
R1 926 Mid-Oct lows
R2 952 Various highs mid-Oct/late-mid Nov
R3 956 40 DMA
R4 1003 50% Fibo (Jan 2016 low>Aug 2016 high)
R5 1006 20 DMA
R6 1006 200 DMA
R7 1021 Nov 9 peak
R8 1038 Aug peak
R9 1090 High (May)
R10 1102 UTL Nov/Jun low
R11 1118 DTL (Feb 2013/Jul 2014 highs)
R12 1176-92 Late 2014 low/Apr-May high
Support:
S1 1102 UTL Nov 2015/Jun lows
S2 1076 50% Fibo Jun>Aug rally
S3 1006 200 DMA
S4 1006 20 DMA
S5 989 40 DMA
S6 959 100 DMA
S7 957 61.8% Fibo Jan>Aug rally
S8 952 Various highs mid-Oct/late-mid Nov
S9 951 50% Fibo Jan-May
S10 945-947 Jul/Aug 2015 lows
S11 929 Support/resistance Jul/Aug 2015 Feb-Apr 2016
S12 910-880 Support/resistance Oct 2015-Feb 2016
S13 811 Low so far
Stochastics:Fastline turning lower
Legend:
DMA - Daily moving average
Fibo - Fibonacci retracement level
BB - Bollinger band
RL - Resistance line
SL - Support line
UTL - Uptrend line
DTL - Downtrend line
H&S - Head-and-shoulder pattern

Technical Comment

Analysis

  • Platinum has edged to a four-month high of $1,031 per oz overnight but further attempts higher have so far struggled, as implied by the longer upper shadow on today’s candlestick formation.
  • We expect prices to continue to find support around $1,000 per oz, with additional support seen around $990 from the 40 DMA and at $970 from the 55 DMA.
  • $1,003 marks the 50% retracement level of the 2016 rally from $811 to $1,195 per oz
  • We expect resistance above around $1,048, which marks the 38.2% Fibo of the 2016 rally.
  • But we note a potential ‘Golden Cross’ – the 20 DMA is poised to cross above the 200 DMA, which will continue to signal bullish price sentiment.

Macro factors

The Nymex net length was virtually unchanged in the week to February 21 when funds/CTAs carried out a near-equal volume of long liquidation and short covering. The net length stands at 39,642 contracts, up  14,228 contracts or 56% in the year to date. But while there has been a modest rise in speculative longs, the recent price strength is still heavily dependent on short covering. But with open shorts at the lowest since August 2014 – during protracted industrial action by South African mine workers – the metal is vulnerable to a sell-off triggered by the return of short selling unless speculative bulls re-engage and enable prices to vault the $1,020-30 per oz resistance band.

ETF holdings are at a 2017 high of 2.37 million oz, following recent demand from US-listed investors.

Vehicle sales globally recorded strong growth last year, supporting rising demand for emission-control devices. Passenger vehicle sales in the three largest markets (the USA, China and the EU) increased 8.5% in 2016 to 56.5 million vehicles. Chinese passenger vehicle sales surged by 13.7% on the previous year, supported by the tax break on small vehicles, according to the China Assn of Automobile Manufacturers. Sales in Europe also enjoyed strong growth last year, rising 6.8% year-on-year. But we believe sales will grow far more modestly in 2017; sales in China are forecast to climb a further 5% in 2017 to 29.4 million vehicles, while sales in Europe are forecast to grow only 1% due to political and economic uncertainties. Sales in the USA contracted by 1.8% year-on-year in January, while passenger vehicle sales in China contracted by 1.1%. By contrast, passenger vehicle sales in Europe increased by a strong 10.2% year-on-year in January.

Platinum continues to grapple with the fallout from the Volkswagen emissions scandal – major cities such as Paris and Madrid have pledged to ban all diesel vehicles by the middle of the next decade. The UK government is also thought to be considering a diesel scrappage scheme after receiving a final warning for failing to comply with EU air pollution limits for nitrogen dioxide.

The global platinum market will remain in a structural deficit for a sixth consecutive year in 2017, according to the latest forecast by the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC). It sees global demand contracting by 2% to 7.84 million oz – lower automotive, industrial and investment demand will outweigh an increase in jewellery consumption. It forecasts total global supply to record a similar 2% decline, mostly owing to a drop in secondary supply, resulting in an overall deficit of 100,000 oz. The WPIC also projects platinum to record a much narrower 170,000-oz deficit this year, down from the 520,000-oz deficit it forecast previously. This reflects an upwards revision in scrap supplies due in part to higher availability from Chinese jewellery fabricators, where a destocking phase is under way, and while higher steel prices boost supply from spent autocatalysts.

Conclusion

Platinum prices moved to tackle overhead resistance with a little more conviction on Friday. But while prices remain supported, resistance is proving stubbornly strong. We maintain our positive outlook for now but the danger is that, unless prices can make a sustained break higher, they will be vulnerable to stale liquidation, particularly if Nymex shorts start to re-engage.

All trades or trading strategies mentioned in the report are hypothetical, for illustration only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

The post PLATINUM TODAY: Prices meeting stiff resistance appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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Commodity Futures Market Preview: February 27th, 2017



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Gold: Unexpected Break Above 1265 Is Important Buy Signal



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Gold Prices Are Up 9% This Year, Is This Rally Sustainable?



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Chinese Aluminum Prices Face Threats Even As They Climb Higher



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Zinc Price Forecast, February 2017: Supply Tight, Prices On The Rise



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Weekly Gold And Silver Update



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Precious Metals' Strength Continues



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воскресенье, 26 февраля 2017 г.

Silver Warming Up For Short



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Silver Eyeing Long Term Bull Market



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Gold Showing Strength



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A Fresh Gold Versus Bonds Pairs Trade With The Dollar Playing Wildcard



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Miners Need To Lead The Metals?



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Gold-Futures Buying Yet To Start



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Gold Stocks Likely To Out Perform Bullion



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Precious Metals Nex Leg Up Is Beginning



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Gold Sector Cycle Is Up



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Apple Is Slowly Blowing Companies Away



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Copper Speculators Dropped Bullish Net Positions For 3rd Straight Week



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Silver Speculators Boost Bullish Net Positions Streak To Eight Weeks



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Gold Speculators Raised Bullish Net Positions To Highest Since December



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Gold Will Benefit From Political Uncertainty, Inflation



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What's Wrong With Gold And Silver?



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пятница, 24 февраля 2017 г.

Gold Is Ready For Liftoff



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Is Gold A Hedge Against Trump’s Impeachment?



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Copper Sags As Gold, Silver Explode Higher



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Gold: Next Resistance



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GOLD TODAY: Prices overcome resistance, confirming robust sentiment

Short Term:
Medium Term:
Long Term:
Resistances:
R1 1244.80 Feb 9 high
R2 1249 50% Fibo (Jul-Dec sell-off)
R3 1295 Former SL
R4 1302 RL
R5 1308
R6 1343-1375 2016 high ground
Support:
S1 1229 20 DMA
S2 1216.45 Recent dip low
S3 1223 UTL
S4 1181.05 Jan 27 low
Stochastics:Bullish
Legend:

BB – Bollinger band

DMA – daily moving average

Fibo – Fibonacci retracement level

H&S – head-and-shouder pattern

HRL – horizontal resistance line

R/SL – resistance/support line

UTL – uptrend line

Technical Comment

Analysis

  • Spot gold prices overcame resistance at $1,220.30 per oz on February 2, the high from January 23. They then climbed to $1,244.80 per oz on February 8 where resistance was formidable, but yesterday prices had finally mopped up what scale-up selling there was ahead around $1,245 per oz. Prices have since extended this year’s rally to $1,256 per oz. 
  • We have been saying for a long time that the late-January pullback seems to have been merely a pause in the developing uptrend, which was a constructive development. This latest consolidation seems like another pause so now we see the rally as continuing.
  • The stochastics are bullish, which supports the move. 
  • As we have been saying in recent weeks, there is a wall to climb – the initial breakdown level was around $1,300 per oz when prices fell out of the summer triangle. We would not be surprised by bouts of consolidation on the way up but we see prices returning to last year’s high ground.

Macro picture

The recent lack in gold’s upward momentum suggested overhead selling; now that has been absorbed, the underlying bullish sentiment can carry prices higher, we think, until the next batch of selling dominates. 

The funds trading Comex gold were doubly bearish last week: the longs cut 4,149 contracts and shorts added 3,248 contracts. The net long fund position of 109,752 contracts has ranged between 96,550 and 119,155 contracts so far this year and was in the range of 26,560-315,963 contracts last year. Given last year’s high, there is plenty of room for the funds to buy more.

Despite a hawkish Fed, the fact gold prices are running higher in tandem with other riskier assets such as equities suggests there is a sufficient number of investors who are worried enough to take out insurance by buying gold to hedge against corrections in other markets down the road. Insurance must be in place before the corrections start.

The main bullish drivers remain unchanged – they are the concerns about Brexit, European elections, Greek debt and the potential for corrections elsewhere. 

Gold ETFs are being bought into again. Holdings stand at 2,032 tonnes, up from a low this year of 1,939 tonnes (see ETF report and chart).

Conclusion

The push higher confirms underlying sentiment remains robust. We remain bullish.

All trades or trading strategies mentioned in the report are hypothetical, for illustration only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

The post GOLD TODAY: Prices overcome resistance, confirming robust sentiment appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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Gold prices extend2017 gains, rally looking robust

FastMarkets

While the base metals struggled on Thursday February 23, precious metals prices had gains of between 0.4% for palladium prices and 1% for gold and silver prices, while platinum prices were up 0.8%. There have been follow through gains in the precious metals this morning too, with prices up an average of 0.5%, led by a 0.8% gain in palladium, while gold prices are up 0.3% at $1,252.87 per oz.

The base metals are firmer this morning, Friday February 24, with metals prices on the London Metal Exchange up an average of 1.1%, led by a 1.5% gain in nickel prices, while copper is up 0.5% at $5,898 per tonne and aluminium is up the least with a 0.2% rise.

Volume has been higher than recently, with 8,233 lots traded as of 07:02 GMT. This price rebound follows a very weak day on Thursday that saw prices down an average of 2.1%, led by a 2.9% fall in copper prices that closed at $5,853 per tonne.

In Shanghai, the base metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are down 1.3% on average with copper prices off 1.9% at 47,660 yuan per tonne, while tin is off the least with a 0.8% fall. Spot copper in Changjiang is down 2.6% at 47,120-47,320 yuan per tonne – this reflects the weakness the market saw on the opening after the sell-off on the LME on Thursday, the weaker prices therefore do seem to have attracted some bargain hunting as the Asian morning has progressed. The LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio has weakened to 8.08.

In other metals in China, May iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are down 2.4%, on SHFE steel rebar prices are off 1.7%, while gold prices are up 1.4% and silver prices are up 1.1%. In international markets spot Brent crude oil prices are off 0.1% at $56.38 per barrel and US 10-year treasuries are 2.3795%.

In equities on Thursday, the Euro Stoxx 50 was off 0.2% and the Dow closed up 0.2%. Asia this morning is generally weaker with the Kospi off 0.6%, the Nikkei and Hang Seng are off 0.5%, the ASX 200 is down 0.8% and the CSI 300 is little changed.

In FX, the dollar index pulled back on Thursday and was recently quoted at 100.93, down from a high on Thursday of 101.72. The euro is firmer at 1.0590, as are the Australian dollar at 0.7716, the yen at 112.79 and the sterling at 1.2553. The yuan is flat at 6.8710, but most of the emerging market currencies we follow are showing strength, especially the rupee, peso and rand – all of which suggests a fairly confident broader market.

The economic calendar is relatively light today with UK mortgage approvals, US new home sales and revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations – see table below for more details.

A wave of weakness flushed through the base metals on Thursday, which has put all prices on more of a back footing but the fact rebounds are being seen this morning, suggests bargain hunting and a weaker dollar will be helping with that. The sell-offs suggests a degree liquidation as prices had struggled to make headway after recent strength. Given the pullback and initial rebound this morning, we will now need to see what follow through trading there is this morning as Europe and then the US open up.

Earlier on this week, the precious metals had an opportunity to sell-off but dips were bought into and gold and silver prices have since pushed higher to extend this year’s rally – this shows the overall rally remains robust and underlying sentiment remains bullish. The PGMs have yet to push above recent highs. We remain bullish for bullion and platinum, less so for palladium.

Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.

 
Overnight Performance
GMT 07:02 +/- +/- % Lots
Cu 5898 45 0.8% 3646
Al 1870 4.5 0.2% 1565
Ni 10710 155 1.5% 919
Zn 2819.5 38 1.4% 1754
Pb 2259 25.5 1.1% 334
Sn 19140 265 1.4% 15
Average 1.1%        8,233
Gold 1252.87 3.62 0.3%  
Silver 18.22 0.04 0.2%
Platinum 1013 6 0.6%
Palladium 776.4 6.4 0.8%
Average PM 0.5%

 

 

SHFE Prices 07:02 GMT RMB Change % Change
Cu 47660 -910 -1.9%
AL 13780 -165 -1.2%
Zn 22820 -385 -1.7%
Pb 18710 -220 -1.2%
Ni 88490 -890 -1.0%
Sn 145550 -1230 -0.8%
Average change (base metals)     -1.3%
Rebar 3454 -58 -1.7%
Iron ore 698.5 -17.5 -2.4%
Au 281.35 3.95 1.4%
Ag 4277 48 1.1%
Economic Agenda
GMT Country Data Actual Expected Previous
9:30am GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals 41.9K 43.2K
3:00pm USD New Home Sales 575K 536K
3:00pm USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 96.1 95.7
3:00pm USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 2.8%

The post Gold prices extend2017 gains, rally looking robust appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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четверг, 23 февраля 2017 г.

Will Gold Extend Rally Post Fed?



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Gold Confirms Rising Wedge To 1250 Target



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Gold And Silver Eye Technical Breakout



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The Oscars: Worth Their Weight In Gold?



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Gold: Resistance Will Be Long Term Bullish



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PALLADIUM TODAY: Sell-off reinforced by hawkish Fed

Short Term:
Medium Term:
Long Term:
Resistances:
R1 797 2017 high (Jan)
R2 884 DTL from 2000 high
Support:
200 676
50 739
20 768
100 713
Support:
S1 768 20 DMA
S2 739 50 DMA
S3 676 200 DMA
S4 645 UTL (purple)
S5 528 Jun low
S6 449 2016 low
Stochastics:
Legend:

DMA – daily moving average

Fibo – Fibonacci retracement level

The momentum index allows us to determine whether momentum is positive (>0) or negative (<0). We use a parameter equal to 10, corresponding to momentum over the past 10 days.

ADX – average directional index; this allows us to gauge the strength of the current trend (above 20, the trend is strong; below 20, the trend is weak)

The combination of momentum and ADX allows us to determine the current trend (up or down) and its strength (strong or weak).

RSI – relative strength index; used to detect whether a metal is oversold (RSI below 30) or overbought (RSI above 70)

 

Technical Comment

Momentum is negative and ADX is below 20, reflecting a weak downtrend.

Analysis

  • Palladium is breaking below its 20 DMA, perhaps a sign of weakening sentiment. But we remain constructive over the very short term (around one month) for now because palladium set a higher high this year, which is a strong bullish signal that underpins the uptrend. 

  • Taking a longer-term perspective, our monthly chart shows the technical picture remains fairly bullish, with an upward-sloping key MMA.

  • On the upside, we see the next key resistance level at the current 2017 high. On the downside, a sustained break below the 20 DMA would suggest sentiment is worsening, resulting in additional selling pressure towards the 50 DMA, the 100 DMA, the 200 DMA and, ultimately, the UTL.

Macro drivers

Palladium is under strong selling pressure alongside platinum so far this week, which could reflect the pick-up in risk aversion accompanied by dollar strength following last night’s Fed minutes. At the the January/February FOMC meeting, “many” FOMC members judged that a rate increase would be appropriate fairly soon, especially if growth and inflation continue to improve. This hawkish tone was in line with the latest testimony from Fed chair Janet Yellen earlier this month in which she emphasised that waiting too long to raise rates would be “unwise”.

ETF investors have remained quiet so far this week after boosting significantly their buying last week. According to our estimates, palladium ETF holdings jumped by roughly 19,000 oz or 1.3% over February 10-17. This could suggest a positive change in sentiment after ETF investors liquidated a significant 167,000 oz of their ETF holdings in January.

Meanwhile, speculators lifted their net long position slightly over February 7-14, the latest COT statistics show. The net long fund position is now up 18% in the year-to-date after it jumped last year so we now see the current spec positioning toward palladium as overstretched on the long side. A return of risk aversion may prompt some profit-taking considering the high correlation between palladium and more traditional risk assets such as equities.

There is a key downside risk to palladium prices this year, namely weakening autocatalyst demand from slowing Chinese auto sales after the government decided to raise the sale tax. According to the China Passenger Car Assn, China passenger car sales dropped 9.8% in January from a year ago after hey rose strongly in 2016.

Supply/demand balance:

Johnson Matthey revised its forecast for the global palladium market lower in November 2016. It now sees it in a deficit of 651,000 oz in 2016 compared with the 843,000-oz deficit it projected in May.

Conclusion

Despite the recent sell-off in prices, we remain friendly toward palladium over the very short term because we see the recent higher yearly high as signaling that the uptrend will continue. But given the volatile nature of the palladium market, we cannot rule out an intensification of the sell-off in coming days. A firm break below $700 per oz would force us to reconsider our stance.

We remain constructive over the short and medium terms (i.e. for the first half of 2017) because palladium should get support from a broad-based rally across the precious metals, which we expect during the rest of the first quarter from stronger demand for safe-haven assets. Still, we think that palladium may underperform given its relatively higher correlation with risky assets than with gold or platinum. 

For more details, please see our January spotlight.

All trades or trading strategies mentioned in the report are hypothetical, for illustration only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

The post PALLADIUM TODAY: Sell-off reinforced by hawkish Fed appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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Gold Stuck In A Triangle



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Gold Price Is Currently In A Choppy Sideways Pattern



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Copper Suffers Position Fatigue



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Gold Daily Forecast: Strongest Resistance Today Is At 1242/44



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Rate Hike Cycles Vs. The USD: Rate Hikes Bad For Gold?



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среда, 22 февраля 2017 г.

This Is The Only Commodity Supply-Demand Indicator That Matters



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Gold's Technical Support



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The Return Of Stagflation



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Gold On The Edge



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Gold: Support And Resistance Lines



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Has The Fed Lost Its Influence On Gold?



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Alan Greenspan Is Now A Gold Bug? Say What?



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Gold: Short End U.S. Rates Matter More Than Long End Real Yields



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Gold, Liberty, And The War On Cash



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Stocks Prices Surge Ever Higher, Supported by Retail Sales And The Oil



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Gold Price Made A Pullback Towards $1,226



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Gold prices held back by strong dollar headwinds

FastMarkets

Precious metals are holding their ground this morning, Wednesday February 22, with gold and silver prices either side of unchanged, with spot gold at $1,235.10 per oz, while palladium is up 0.6% and platinum is up 0.2%. This follows on from Tuesday’s general weakness that saw silver prices fall 0.5%, gold and silver prices closed down 0.2%, although palladium bucked the trend with a 0.6% gain. At one stage on Tuesday the precious metals were all looking decidedly weaker, but worse-than-expected US data prompted a reversal.

Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are for the most part drifting lower this morning, with prices down an average of 0.5% on volume of 7,725 lots as of 06:54 GMT.

Tin is the only metal in positive territory, zinc prices are off the most with a 1.1% decline, copper and nickel prices are off 0.7%, with three-month copper prices at $6,014 per tonne, aluminium prices are down 0.6% and lead is off 0.5%. Today’s weaker tone follows Tuesday’s weakness that saw prices pullback an average of 1.2%, led by a 2.9% drop in nickel prices to $10,835 per tonne.

In Shanghai this morning, the base metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are weaker across the board with prices down an average of 1.6% – nickel prices lead the decline with a 2.6% drop, followed by a 2.1% drop in aluminium prices. Copper prices are down 0.8% at 48,650 yuan per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are down 0.7% at 48,450-48,650 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is at 8.09.

In other metals in China, May iron ore prices are off 0.8% on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, on SHFE steel rebar prices are down 1.7%, gold prices are unchanged and silver prices are down 0.2%. In international markets spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.3% at $56.78 per barrel and the ten-year US treasuries have a yield of 2.4523%.

Equities were firmer on Tuesday on the back of good results and further signs of global economic strength with generally good manufacturing PMI data. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed up 0.8%, the Dow closed up 0.6% and this morning Asian markets are generally firmer, too. The Nikkei is little changed, the Hang Seng is up 0.8% and the Kospi, CSI 300 and ASX 200 are all up around 0.2%.

In FX, the dollar index remains upbeat at 101.48 and strength in the dollar is keeping the cap on other currencies with the euro at 1.0526, the sterling at 1.2493, the yen at 113.42 and the Australian dollar at 0.7688. In emerging market (EM) currencies, the yuan is trading sideways at 6.8632, most of the other EM currencies we follow are also consolidating, although the peso has started to rebound.

The economic calendar is busy today with German Ifo business climate, UK GDP, index of services and business investment. There is data on EU CPI and the ECB’s long term refinancing operation, Chinese leading indicators, US existing home sales and the minutes from the last US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. In addition, UK MPC members Sir Jon Cunliffe and Nemat Shafik and FOMC member Jerome Powell are speaking – see table below for more details.

Consolidation seems the order of the day for the base metals as the higher price levels attract profit-taking and forward selling. The firmer dollar is also probably acting as a stronger headwind now that the dollar looks like it may start to trend higher again. That said, we expect metals’ prices to remain underpinned as we sense sentiment remains largely bullish for the industrial metals, supported by generally good PMI and other data.

Gold prices have levelled off either side $1,235 per oz, we see this as consolidation, but the fact they are holding up well in the face of the stronger dollar also suggests underlying sentiment remains committed. If prices struggle to make headway we would not be surprised to see prices dip as some of the weaker longs take profits. We started to see some weakness on Tuesday morning, but it was short-lived, but it did suggests there was some selling interest around though and there may therefore be more.

Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.

 
Overnight Performance
GMT 06:54 +/- +/- % Lots
Cu 6014 -42.5 -0.7% 2089
Al 1872 -10.5 -0.6% 1660
Ni 10760 -75 -0.7% 1362
Zn 2838 -31 -1.1% 2193
Pb 2254.5 -10.5 -0.5% 417
Sn 19835 80 0.4% 4
Average -0.5%        7,725
Gold 1234.03 -1.07 -0.1%  
Silver 17.966 0.021 0.1%
Platinum 1001.1 2.1 0.2%
Palladium 780.8 4.8 0.6%
Average PM 0.2%

 

 

SHFE Prices 06:54 GMT RMB Change % Change
Cu 48650 -400 -0.8%
AL 13960 -305 -2.1%
Zn 23105 -330 -1.4%
Pb 18795 -345 -1.8%
Ni 89490 -2380 -2.6%
Sn 147970 -860 -0.6%
Average change (base metals)     -1.6%
Rebar 3528 -61 -1.7%
Iron ore 721.5 -6 -0.8%
Au 277.25 0.1 0.0%
Ag 4219 -7 -0.2%
Economic Agenda
GMT Country Data Actual Expected Previous
9:00am Germany German Ifo Business Climate 109.6 109.8
9:30am UK Second Estimate GDP q/q 0.6% 0.6%
9:30am UK Prelim Business Investment q/q 0.0% 0.4%
9:30am UK Index of Services 3m/3m 0.8% 1.0%
10:00am EU Final CPI y/y 1.8% 1.8%
10:00am EU Final Core CPI y/y 0.9% 0.9%
10:30am EU Long Term Refinancing Operation 62.2B
11:00am UK MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
2:00pm China CB Leading Index m/m 0.8%
3:00pm US Existing Home Sales 5.54M 5.49M
6:00pm US FOMC Member Powell Speaks
7:00pm US FOMC Meeting Minutes
8:00pm UK MPC Member Shafik Speaks

The post Gold prices held back by strong dollar headwinds appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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вторник, 21 февраля 2017 г.

Gold Gets Shot In The Arm From Inflation, China



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Gold And The Inflationary Firestorm



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Trading Gold With Trump



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Lead Prices Will Trade At $2,800 By Year’s End



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Gold And Gravity: Play Of The Week



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SILVER TODAY: Rally looking tired in the short term

Short Term:
Medium Term:
Long Term:
Resistances:
R1 17.24 Dec highs
R2 17.35 H&S neckline (broken at)
R3 17.63 20 DMA
R4 17.73 38.2% Fibo (Jul-Dec sell-off)
R5 19.00 Nov highs
R6 20.13 Sep 6 peak
R7 21.13 High so far
R8 21.60 Jul 2014 peak
Support:
S1 17.63 20 DMA
S2 17.40 Neckline
S3 17.25 UTL
S4 15.82 May low
S5 15.63 Low so far
S6 15.44 Long-term UTL
S7 13.64 Dec low
Stochastics:Bearish
Legend:

DMA – daily moving average

Fibo – Fibonacci retracement line

H&S – head-and-shoulder pattern

RL – resistance line

UTL – uptrend line

 

Technical Comment

Analysis

  • The rebound that got going in mid-December has climbed $2.5 per oz in two main upwaves; the second wave may just be starting to end judging by today’s weakness and the drop in the stochastics. See the previous drop in the stochastics. That said, any reversal of today’s weakness could change the developing chart picture. 
  • We remain bullish in the medium term; the inverse H&S pattern has a target of $18.95 per oz and the 20 DMA is climbing steadily.
  • However, we would not be surprised to see a pullback to test support either at the 20 DMA, the neckline, or the UTL.

Other factors

The fact silver has managed to accelerate higher while the dollar has been strengthening is noteworthy. With base metals generally rallying too, it looks as though silver is attracting industrial buying.

Last week’s CFTC data, up to the close on February 14, showed the net long fund position (NLFP) climbed 6,535 contracts to 84,812 contracts. This was the seventh consecutive week where the funds have been net buyers. Shorts have been cutting exposure for six weeks and the longs have been adding positions for eight weeks. At 104,765 contracts, the gross long position is still some way below last year’s peak of 123,737 contracts and the short position at 19,953 contracts is in low ground, the lowest since 2014 has been 12,375, while the highest has been 63,993 contracts.

The fact gold prices are holding up well, almost regardless of the dollar, and that dips have been short-lived and shallow also portrays a robust market. Overall, we still feel that bullion will remain sought-after as a safe haven in the days and weeks ahead. This is especially the case while geopolitical uncertainties are growing with the UK getting closer to Brexit, Greece facing debt repayment issues, Europe facing elections and US President Trump settling into his new role.

That said, prices rarely travel in straight lines so we should expect pullbacks along the way.

Conclusion

The sell-off in the second half of last year was significant but the downtrend looks to be over. The rebound now looks more than merely another counter-trend move and is more likely to be the start of a bull market, although to-date prices have rallied 16% rather than the 20% required to call it a bull market officially. That said, in the short term the latest up-leg is looking tired, the stochastics have swung lower and another show of dollar strength may act as a headwind, so we would not be surprised to see prices consolidate at lower numbers; but we expect dips will be well supported.

All trades or trading strategies mentioned in the report are hypothetical, for illustration only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

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Technical Analysis Of Gold For February 21, 2017



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Gold And Silver: Don’t Short These Dogs



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Gold prices edge lower as dollar strengthens

FastMarkets

The precious metals are little changed this morning, Tuesday February 21, with spot gold prices off 0.2% at $1,234.18 per oz, silver prices are off 0.3%, while platinum is unchanged and palladium prices are up 0.1%. On Monday, gold, silver and platinum prices were firmer by an average of 0.3%, while palladium prices were off 0.6%.

Base metals prices are consolidating on the London Metal Exchange this morning with prices down an average of 0.3%, with all the metals, except tin, off between 0.2% for zinc and 0.7% for nickel – volume has been average with 6,164 lots traded as of 06:48 GMT.

Today’s slight pullback comes after a strong performance on Monday when the base metals complex closed up with average gains of 1.5%, led by lead and zinc that were up 2.8% and 2.5%, respectively, while three-month copper prices closed up 1.7% at $6,070 per tonne.

In Shanghai this morning, the base metals are firmer across the board by an average of 1.2% with gains between 0.3% for nickel and 2.1% for zinc, while copper prices are up 1.1% at 48,930 yuan per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 1.2% at 48,800-49,000 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is at 8.09.

In other metals in China, May iron ore prices have surged 3.9% on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, on SHFE steel rebar prices are up 1.6%, while gold prices are off 0.2% and silver prices are up 0.2%. In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.2% at $56.21 per barrel.

Equities are holding up but not rallying much with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing up 0.1% on Monday and the Dow closing little changed. Asia this morning, for the most part, remains upbeat with the Nikkei up 0.7%, the Kospi is up 0.9%, the Hang Seng is off 0.6%, the CSI 300 is up 0.3% and the ASX 200 is off 0.1%.

In FX, the dollar index appears to be starting off on another up leg with the index recently quoted at 101.60 – some hawkish US Fed talk saying a March rate rise is not off the table is boosting the dollar. Conversely, other major currencies are weaker with the euro at 1.0584, the yen at 113.50, the Australian dollar at 0.7664 and the sterling at 1.2445. Emerging market currencies are also slightly weaker with the yuan at 6.8630 and the rest on a slight back footing.

The economic agenda is busy with the focus on flash manufacturing and services PMI data. Japan’s manufacturing PMI climbed to 53.5 from 52.7, but the country’s all industries activity dropped 0.3%. In addition to PMI data there is data out on French CPI, UK borrowing and UK inflation. Furthermore, there is an EU Ecofin meeting and US Federal Open Market Committee members Neel Kashkari and Patrick Harker are speaking – see table below for more details.

The base metals are for the most part consolidating this morning after rebounding on Monday. High prices appear to be attracting profit-taking and some selling, while the stronger dollar is a headwind too. That said, the underlying sentiment remains bullish and we expect that to remain the case as the seasonally stronger second quarter still lies ahead.

Gold prices are trading sideways, there appears to be supply above $1,240 per oz that is capping the upside for now. The fact prices are holding up given the strength in equities and the dollar suggests underlying sentiment remains bullish, but if prices fail to get upside momentum then there are likely to be bouts of stale long liquidation that cause price pullbacks. We would expect dips to be well supported though. Silver and the PGMs seems to be showing a bit more weakness this morning, which is in line with the weaker tone being seen in the base metals too.

Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.

 

 
Overnight Performance
GMT 06:48 +/- +/- % Lots
Cu 6051 -19 -0.3% 2669
Al 1892.5 -8.5 -0.4% 573
Ni 11080 -75 -0.7% 974
Zn 2875.5 -4.5 -0.2% 1749
Pb 2308 -8 -0.3% 199
Sn 19860 0 0.0%
Average -0.3%        6,164
Gold 1234.18 -2.92 -0.2%  
Silver 17.991 -0.049 -0.3%
Platinum 1000.9 -0.1 0.0%
Palladium 772 1 0.1%
Average PM -0.1%

 

 

SHFE Prices 06:47 GMT RMB Change % Change
Cu 48930 510 1.1%
AL 14230 180 1.3%
Zn 23385 470 2.1%
Pb 19075 285 1.5%
Ni 91320 230 0.3%
Sn 149020 1960 1.3%
Average change (base metals)     1.2%
Rebar 3572 55 1.6%
Iron ore 732.5 27.5 3.9%
Au 276.9 -0.45 -0.2%
Ag 4223 8 0.2%

 

 

Economic Agenda
GMT Country Data Actual Expected Previous
12:30am Japan Flash Manufacturing PMI 53.5 52.1 52.7
4:30am Japan All Industries Activity m/m -0.3% -0.2% 0.4%
 7:45am France French Final CPI m/m -0.2% -0.2%
8:00am France French Flash Manufacturing PMI 53.5 53.6
8:00am France French Flash Services PMI 53.8 54.1
8:30am Germany German Flash Manufacturing PMI 56.2 56.4
8:30am Germany German Flash Services PMI 53.6 53.4
9:00am EU Flash Manufacturing PMI 55 55.2
9:00am EU Flash Services PMI 53.7 53.7
9:30am UK Public Sector Net Borrowing -14.4B 6.4B
10:00am UK Inflation Report Hearings
All Day EU ECOFIN Meetings
1:50pm US FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
1:50pm US Flash Manufacturing PMI 54.7 55
2:45pm US Flash Services PMI 55.8 55.6
5:00pm US FOMC Member Harker Speaks

The post Gold prices edge lower as dollar strengthens appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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Gold Sector Is On A Major Buy Signal



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понедельник, 20 февраля 2017 г.

Gold Listless As U.S. Markets Closed For Holiday



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Potential Trend Reversal Alert On XAU/EUR



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Gold: All Eyes On Neckline Resistance



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Gold prices hold up despite headwinds

FastMarkets

Precious metals prices are little changed this morning, Monday February 20, with spot gold prices last at $1,234 per oz, this suggests prices are consolidating after Friday’s weakness when prices fell an average of 0.9%, with the PGM prices falling more than bullion prices.

Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are for the most part firmer this morning with three-month copper prices leading the way with a 0.8% gain to $6,019 per tonne, lead prices are up 0.7%, tin prices are off 0.8%, while the rest are little changed.

Volume has been average with 6,718 lots traded as of 07:00 GMT. This morning’s general firmness comes after a day of weakness for most of the metals on Friday February 17, which was led by 1.9% falls in lead and zinc prices.

In Shanghai this morning, the base metals on SHFE are mostly lower, copper prices are up 0.3% at 48,760 yuan per tonne, nickel prices are up 0.8%, while the rest are weaker with zinc off 1.9%, aluminium is off 0.8% while lead and tin are off marginally. Spot copper prices in Changjiang settled down 0.5% at 48,200-48,400 yuan per tonne, but with the futures now rising, it shows that early weakness in the market is being reversed, while the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is at 8.1.

In other metals in China, May iron ore prices are up 0.4% on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, on SHFE steel rebar prices are up 2.6%, while gold and silver prices are off 0.3% and 0.6%, respectively. In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.6% at $56.02 per barrel.

Equities ended little changed on Friday, the Euro Stoxx 50 closed down 0.1% and the Dow closed up just four points, but Asia this morning is firmer with the Nikkei up 0.1%, the Hang Seng is up 0.6%, the CSI 300 is up 1.5% and the Kospi is up 0.2%, although the ASX 200 is off 0.2%.

In FX, the dollar index is consolidating either side of the 101 level, it was recently quoted 100.83. The euro is at 1.0625, the sterling is flat at 1.2435, the yen is at 113.12 and the Australian dollar is firmer at 0.7685. The yuan is consolidating in low ground at 6.8746, while most of the other emerging market currencies we follow are consolidating with a slightly weaker bias following recent strength.

Data out today showed UK house prices rising more than expected and higher than expected German PPI, data out later includes a German Bundesbank monthly report, UK industrial order expectations and EU consumer confidence – see table below for more details. Most US markets are closed for the Presidents’ Day federal holiday.

The base metals generally seem to be consolidating in high ground following recent price strength that attracted scale up selling. The exception is nickel that is managing to continue with its rebound as the market puts a bullish slant on the developments over nickel ore shipments from Indonesia and the Philippines. Overall, the underlying tone seems bullish, but prices have already done a lot, so it may be that the market needs more proof that the fundamentals are tightening before prices can continue higher.

The precious metals continue to hold up in high ground and the fact they are doing so despite a hawkish US Fed and strength in other markets, which raises the opportunity cost of holding gold, suggests there is still enough nervousness about what lies ahead in the geopolitical arena to support the precious metals complex.

Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.

 
Overnight Performance
GMT 06:59 +/- +/- % Lots
Cu 6019 49 0.8% 2099
Al 1889.5 5 0.3% 1218
Ni 11090 20 0.2% 1501
Zn 2810.5 -0.5 0.0% 1496
Pb 2269 16 0.7% 398
Sn 19620 -155 -0.8% 6
Average 0.2%        6,718
Gold 1234.2 -0.55 0.0%  
Silver 17.964 -0.001 0.0%
Platinum 1001.1 2.1 0.2%
Palladium 775.4 -0.6 -0.1%
Average PM 0.0%

 

SHFE Prices 06:59 GMT RMB Change % Change
Cu 48760 160 0.3%
AL 14120 -120 -0.8%
Zn 22885 -455 -1.9%
Pb 18785 -45 -0.2%
Ni 91550 750 0.8%
Sn 147670 -170 -0.1%
Average change (base metals)     -0.3%
Rebar 3540 89 2.6%
Iron ore 701.5 2.5 0.4%
Au 276.6 -0.75 -0.3%
Ag 4207 -25 -0.6%

 

Economic Agenda
GMT Country Data Actual Expected Previous
12:01am UK Rightmove HPI m/m 2.0% 0.4%
7:00am Germany German PPI m/m 0.7% 0.3% 0.4%
All Day EU ECOFIN Meetings
 11:00am Germany German Buba Monthly Report
 11:00am UK CBI Industrial Order Expectations  5  5
All Day US Bank Holiday
3:00pm EU Consumer Confidence  -5  -5

The post Gold prices hold up despite headwinds appeared first on The Bullion Desk.



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Gold Steadies, Further Gains Expected



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Elliott Wave Analysis: Gold Looking To Extend Its Gains



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How Rising Labor Costs Are Impacting World’s Largest Gold Miner



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Zinc Is In A Record Deficit As Prices Near Record Highs



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воскресенье, 19 февраля 2017 г.

Gold Topped At 1242/44 As Expected



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Gold Getting Repelled By Resistance - That's What



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Gold’s Fundamentals Strengthen



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Gold During Reflations



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Gold, Silver, Dollar Cycles: Part III



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Gold Trying To Recover From Last Week's Retracement



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Gold-Stock Volume Divergence



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Gold Speculators Pulled Back On Bullish Net Positions For 2nd Week



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Silver Speculators Raise Net Bullish Positions For 7th Straight Week



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Copper Speculators Reduced Bullish Net Positions For 2nd Week



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200 Day Averages Proving Key Levels



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GLD, SLV: Both On Buy Signal



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Where To Buy And Sell Gold



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Silver Trend Momentum Bullish



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Work Stops Completely At Freeport’s Grasberg Copper Mine



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пятница, 17 февраля 2017 г.

Gold Technicals



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Gold: Further Losses Target First Support At 1233/32



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Gold prices consolidate, but have held up well and look robust

FastMarkets

Precious metals are consolidating this morning Friday February 17, either side of unchanged with spot gold prices at $1,237.89 per oz, but this is after a bullish day on Thursday, when prices closed up with gains of between 0.3% and 0.6%.

The base metals on the London Metal Exchange are for the most part weaker this morning. Tin and copper prices are little changed, with three-month copper prices at $5,991 per tonne, while the rest are down an average of 1.1%. Volume has been average with 7,886 lots traded as of 06:25 GMT.

Thursday’s trading was also generally weaker with copper, aluminium, lead and tin prices down between 0.6% to 1.1%, while zinc was off 0.2% and nickel bucked the trend with a 1.3% gain to $11,050 per tonne – underpinned by a net bullish interpretation of the recent changes in nickel ore supplies from Indonesia and the Philippines.

In Shanghai this morning, the base metals trading on Shanghai Futures Exchange are weaker with prices down an average of 1.4%, led by a 2.5% drop in lead and a 2.2% fall in aluminium prices. Copper prices are off 1% at 48,470 yuan per tonne, zinc and tin prices are down 1.2% and 0.9%, respectively, and nickel is off the least with a 0.5% fall. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are off 0.9% at 48,460-48,660 yuan per tonne, a similar amount to the fall in the futures prices, suggesting prices started weaker this morning and have remained weak as profit-taking and scale-up selling emerges into the recent price strength. The LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is at 8.09 which suggests the arb window remains closed.

In other metals in China, iron ore prices for the May Dalian Commodity Exchange contracts are up 0.5%, on SHFE steel rebar prices are up 1.1%, gold prices are up 0.7% and silver prices are off 0.1%. So apart from the ferrous part of the market, industrial metals seem to be consolidating today. In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are little changed at $55.70 per barrel and US ten year treasuries yields are around 2.4555%.

The latest equity run higher seems to have stalled with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing down 0.4% on Thursday and the Dow closed little changed at 20,620. Asian equities this morning are weaker with the Nikkei off 0.6%, the Hang Seng and CSI are down 0.4%, the ASX 200 is off 0.2% and the Kospi is off 0.1%.

In FX, the dollar index’s rally appears to have stalled, it was recently quoted at 100.53, which suggests the rebound in recent weeks, driven by US tax reform expectations, may have been just a counter trend move within the downward trend that has been seen since the start of the year – that is the chart view at least. But, on a macro view it seems more likely that interest rate rises and tax reforms will boost the dollar further – that is if these expectations are not already baked into the strong dollar that since the US election has climbed from around 97 to a high of 103.80.

The weaker dollar this morning has led to stronger major currencies with the euro at 1.0670, the yen is firmer at 113.40, while the sterling and the Australian dollar are flat at 1.2495 and 0.7697, respectively. The yuan at 6.8658 is consolidating and most of the other emerging market (EM) currencies we follow are slightly weaker. Following their recent show of strength EM currencies seem to be more in tune with the dollar. The one EM currency we are watching closely is the rand that is showing strength with its move below 13.0000.

The economic agenda is light with data coming out on the EU current account, UK retail sales and US leading indicators – see table below for more details.

The base metals seem to be consolidating recent gains, which in many of the metals have seen prices at levels not seen since 2015, while nickel and tin prices are consolidating after the strong rebounds that followed the January sell-offs. We generally remain bullish for the metals’ fundamentals but need to take into account that many of the metals prices have already moved a long way and going forward the market may need to see more evidence of tightness in the fundamentals, as in seeing exchange stocks fall, before prices can continue higher.

The precious metals prices, especially gold and silver, are looking robust – dips have been seen but they have been shallow and short-lived, even with the dollar showing strength in recent weeks. We remain bullish for the precious metals complex.

Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.

 
Overnight Performance
GMT 06:25 +/- +/- % Lots
Cu 5991 0.5 0.0% 2331
Al 1881 -23 -1.2% 2255
Ni 10935 -115 -1.0% 1414
Zn 2840 -26 -0.9% 1517
Pb 2266 -31.5 -1.4% 337
Sn 19650 25 0.1% 32
Average -0.7%        7,886
Gold 1237.89 -0.26 0.0%  
Silver 18.038 -0.012 -0.1%
Platinum 1012 3 0.3%
Palladium 788.6 -1.4 -0.2%
Average PM   0.0%

 

SHFE Prices 06:25 GMT RMB Change % Change
Cu 48470 -500 -1.0%
AL 14100 -320 -2.2%
Zn 23290 -275 -1.2%
Pb 18745 -490 -2.5%
Ni 90030 -480 -0.5%
Sn 147700 -1330 -0.9%
Average change (base metals)     -1.4%
Rebar 3457 36 1.1%
Iron ore 703 3.5 0.5%
Au 277.3 1.9 0.7%
Ag 4221 -4 -0.1%

 

Economic Agenda
GMT Country Data Actual Expected Previous
9:00am EU Current Account 28.7B 36.1B
9:30am UK Retail Sales m/m 1.0% -1.9%
3:00pm US CB Leading Index m/m 0.5% 0.5%

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